Picks Against the Spread - Week 13

Last week: 9-7
Season to date: 42-56-3

picks in italics

Dolphins This Week

• New York Jets @ Miami (-1.5) - All bets are off, literally! It sounds really strange and idiotic but I think the 'Phins should win this game. Well, they better because this is their last good chance. The Jets are a bad team and if not for some critical special teams errors in the Meadowlands in week three, both teams would be coming in with a 1-10 record. (Update: As of Wednesday night, an 0-11 team is actually favored, and I'm picking them, stunning.)
  

Games of the Week

• Green Bay @ Dallas (-6.5) - This game is more important for the Cowboys, it'd be tougher for them to win at Lambeau than it would for the Packers to win in Dallas. It also reminds me of last years Saints @ Cowboys game where Dallas laid an egg and went on to lose three of their last four. They are better than that this year but they really need this one.
  
• Jacksonville (+7) @ Indianapolis - The Jaguars didn't stand much of a chance last time with Quinn Gray at QB at a time when the Colts were near flawless. This time however, David Garrard and the Jags are on a roll and a win could go a long way to helping their playoff run. They will keep it close but will fall just short.
  

The Rest

• Atlanta @ St. Louis
• Buffalo @ Washington (-5.5)
• Detroit @ Minnesota (-3.5)
• Houston @ Tennessee (-3.5)
• San Diego (-4) @ Kansas City
• Seattle (+3) @ Philadelphia
  
• San Francisco (+3) @ Carolina
• Cleveland (+1) @ Arizona
• Denver (-3) @ Oakland
• New York Giants @ Chicago (+2)
  
• Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-3)
• Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-7) - I'm surprised this game doesn't have a line. I'll update it if one becomes available (Update: As expected, a line has been announced, I'll reluctantly stay with the Steelers)
  

Monday Night Football

• New England (-20) @ Baltimore
  

Miami Dolphins Holiday Wishlist 2007

This is what the Dolphins should be asking Santa for.

• A win
• Some wins for other bad teams so we can still get the first overall pick in the draft
• A trade partner willing to give up at least two first round picks in order to move up to our number one spot (cough::Cowboys::cough)
• A shutdown corner
• Multiple players in the draft for our front seven
• A sure handed possession receiver
• A team willing to give up a 2nd round pick for Ricky Williams
• A refund on Joey Porter

Feel free to comment on anything else we should be asking for.

Picks Against the Spread - Week 12

Last week: 7-8-1
Season to date: 33-49-3

Thanksgiving Day Games

• Green Bay (-3.5) @ Detroit – The Lions have a tough remaining schedule. A win would go a long way trying to securing a playoff berth.
• New York Jets @ Dallas (-14) – The Jets breakthrough performance occurred last week. The Cowboys are in a groove and will win soundly.
• Indianapolis (-11.5) @ Atlanta – That is a lot of points for the banged up Colts to cover but they are due for a dominant performance.

Sunday Games

• Buffalo @ Jacksonville (-7.5)
• Houston @ Cleveland (-3.5)
• Minnesota (+7.5) @ New York Giants
• New Orleans (-3) @ Carolina
• Oakland @ Kansas City (-5.5)
• Seattle @ St. Louis (+3)
• Tennessee @ Cincinnati (+1.5)
• Washington (+3) @ Tampa Bay
• San Francisco @ Arizona (-10.5)
• Baltimore @ San Diego (-9.5)
• Denver (+1.5) @ Chicago
• Philadelphia @ New England (-22)

Monday Night Football & Dolphins This Week

• Miami @ Pittsburgh (-16) - I'd really like to pick the Dolphins to cover that large spread, but everything adds up to a Steelers rout. A full preview and prediction will follow later in the week.

Miami @ Philadelphia - Recap

This will be brief

• Cam Cameron did not put John Beck or the offense in the best chance to be successful.
• Beck didn't look comfortable and wasn't accurate on short throws. I attribute that to nerves and the fact no one made any plays for him. What I saw from him doesn't worry or impress me.
• McNabb going out helped the Eagles realize that they should rely on Brian Westbrook. That was the key to getting their offense on track in the second half.
• A BIG shout-out to the name sake of this blog (#19 Ted Ginn, Jr.) for a nice return for a touchdown that was NOT called back due to penalty. It's been a long time coming.
• Simply put, the Dolphins lack the talent to fully maximize the time when they are playing well. When the Patriots play well (I know that is 95% of the time), they build a three touchdown lead in a hurry. When we are playing well, we hold our opponent while the offense only provides us with one touchdown or a couple field goals which can easily be overcome when our opponent finally wakes up. I commend the players heart and determination and that alone should be good enough to win but it's the NFL. We need a couple more dynamic players to make dynamic plays to win us ballgames.
  

NFC Outlook - Week 12

Ten games have been played. There are six games to go. Here is how I see the NFC playing out (conference power ranking in parentheses).

EAST

• (1) Dallas - They are the second best team in football but is imperative that they keep winning, especially against the Packers in a couple weeks. They don't want to have to make a return trip to Green Bay in January
• (3) New York Giants- That was a big win to establish themselves as clearly the best non-division leader. They would have to really let down to miss the playoffs.
• (8) Washington - That could have been a huge win in Dallas had they been able to contain T.O. They are capable of making a late season surge to the playoffs.
• (9) Philadelphia - Their win over Miami shouldn't get people too excited. It looked like they lack the explosiveness or edge that could launch them into a late season push.

NORTH

• (2) Green Bay - I bet they don't mind the Cowboys being the flashy team that gets all of the attention. The Packers flat out get it done and have a favorable schedule trying to lock up home field advantage.
• (6) Detroit - My advice to them would be to stop talking smack and just lay low trying to get some wins. The rest of season schedule is difficult and they could be poised for a second half swoon.
  
• (10) Minnesota - I can't figure this team out. They can look real good but they lack the consistency. A good offseason could make them a contender next year.
• (13) Chicago - Oh how the mighty have fallen, it must be the "Super Bowl Loser" curse. They just have not been able to find ways to win. The offseason is going to be huge for this team as well.

SOUTH

• (4) Tampa Bay - Say what you want about Jeff Garcia, he wins football games. The Bucs are having no trouble taking care of a weak division.
• (11) Carolina - I love Vinny Testaverde, but when he is starting games for you this late in the season, you have a problem. Focus on the offseason.
• (12) New Orleans - I guess they had a lot of hidden weaknesses last year. The defense came back down to earth and now we are noticing how important Deuce McAllister and Joe Horn were.
• (13) Atlanta - Why on earth would you change your starting quarterback after winning two games in a row? They probably wouldn't have beaten Tampa Bay anyway, but what message are you sending to your team?

WEST

• (5) Seattle - Matt Hasselback is one of the underrated quarterbacks in the league. He leads his team and doesn't have any big name receivers or much of a running game this year.
• (7) Arizona - The Seahawks better not falter. The Cardinals are young and hungry and I love the way their defense attacks teams. They can get hot.
• (14) St. Louis - Nice winning streak! If it had started a few weeks earlier they might still be in the division race.
• (16) San Francisco - Not much more to be said for the 49ers. Their offense is inept and they have lost 8 games in a row. It's a shame they aren't on the Dolphins schedule this year.

PLAYOFF SEEDING PREDICTION

1. Dallas
2. Green Bay
3. Tampa Bay
4. Seattle
5. New York Giants
6. Arizona
   

Gameday Week 11 - Preview and Prediction

PREVIEW

When the Dolphins Have the Ball

• They must continue to run the ball well and not put the entire offense on the rookie quarterback.
• They should either go with max protections or run some quick outs to negate the blitz.
• Also, it will be necessary to go down the field and try to beat the blitz with a deep ball to keep the defense honest.
• We must avoid drop balls, false starts, turnovers and other self inflicted wounds.
• Play to win, don't play trying not to lose.

When the Eagles Have the Ball

• We must account for Brian Westbrook out of the backfield. He is the most dangerous RB, running after the catch.
• Don't let Donovan McNabb break contain.
• Force the Eagles to make long drives. Don't let them get the big long TD plays.
• Try to actually force a turnover and not just wait for a giveaway.

Intangibles

• The Eagles have a renewed sense of life in the playoff hunt after last weeks comeback at Washington. They should be well focused and hungry to keep it going.
• The Dolphins starters at the skill positions on offense are probably the least experienced bunch in NFL history.
  
• The Dolphins defense has finally shown up the past couple games and if they keep doing that, the offense will sometime be able to score enough to win.

PREDICTION

• Eagles 28, Dolphins 13 - I wouldn't be surprised if Miami played a good game and perhaps won but it's a lot to ask for a rookie quarterback. It will be a tough environment against a hungry team and unless the Eagles make mistakes and we capitalize, they should win soundly.
  

Picks Against the Spread - Week 11

Last Week: I was busy and never posted my picks. I picked straight up winners in a fantasy group but went 6-8 so it was a bad week.
Season to Date: 26-41-2

Dolphins This Week

• Miami @ Philadelphia (-10) - The "Phins this year have followed up each of their close losses by getting beaten soundly. The Eagles were able to right the ship beating Washington and need to keep the momentum going. John Beck will be a good quarterback but this is a tough game to ask him to win in his first NFL start
  

Games of the Week

• San Diego (+3) @ Jacksonville - If the Chargers offense shows up they could make a run towards the Super Bowl. If not, then they are just another team in the AFC that is multiple rungs of the ladder below New England. Jacksonville has a great defense and can run the ball, but how many games can they grind out victories?
  
• New York Giants (-3) @ Detroit Lions - The Giants don't want to lose and be involved in a playoff battle the rest of the season not to mention hear it from the fans and media about a second half swoon. They will gladly pass that duty on to the Lions.
  

The Rest

• Arizona (+3.5) @ Cincinnati
• Carolina @ Green Bay (-9.5)
• Cleveland (-2.5) @ Baltimore
• Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-14.5)
• New Orleans (+1) @ Houston
• Oakland @ Minnesota (-5.5)
• Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (+3)
• Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ New York Jets
• Washington @ Dallas (-10.5)
• St. Louis (-3) @ San Francisco
• Chicago (+6) @ Seattle
  
• New England @ Buffalo (+15.5)

Monday Night Football

• Tennessee @ Denver (-2.5) - These two teams are the best candidates for team not in my playoff projections to actually make the playoffs. This matchup makes up for a total dud this past week on MNF.
  

AFC Outlook - Week 11

Power Rankings

1. New England - They basically clinched home field advantage on Sunday without even playing
   
2. Indianapolis - I'm giving them a small pass because they should've won and they were on the road facing a desperate team
   
3. Pittsburgh - They passed a big test and basically clinched their division
   
4. Jacksonville - Got a much needed win, their schedule is tough over the next five weeks
   
5. Tennessee - Missed a good opportunity to bury the Jaguars in the standings
   
6. San Diego - Adam Vinatieri saved the Bolts from another rough week
   
7. Cleveland - With their schedule, it'll be a disappointment if they don't make the playoffs
   
8. Buffalo - They are lucky that the Dolphins ineptitude saved them from embarrassment
   
9. Denver - Big win to stay alive in the sub par AFC West
   
10. Kansas City - Will somehow remain in the race until the end
    
11. Houston - They are looking like the Texans of old
    
12. Cincinnati - Still no good, their wins were against my numbers 13 (twice) and 15
    
13. Baltimore - As my good friend Alex would say, "They are an embarrassment to professional football."
    
14. Oakland - And why isn't Jamarcus Russell playing?
    
15. New York Jets - Hope they enjoyed the bye week, the Steelers are coming to town
    
16. Miami - A cursed team, they held the Bills to 214 total yards and didn't turn the ball over but lost by three anyway.

Projected Playoff Seedings

1. Patriots - Obviously
2. Colts - Barely, over Pittsburgh
   
3. Steelers - A win over the Pats would drastically improve their chances
4. Chargers - Someone must win the West
5. Browns - Favorable schedule
6. Jaguars - Victim of a tough division
   

Gameday Week 10 - Preview and Prediction

I have been real busy lately and not posting much. Here are my quick hit thoughts for today's game.

• I am completely content with losing as long as John Beck plays at least one full quarter.
• Miami has played three absolute stinkers in Dolphin Stadium this year, outscored in those games 121-65
• The Bills are either much better or much worse than their 4-4 record. They should have won the games against Denver and Dallas but their statistical ranks are poor (31st in total defense and 29th in total offense).
• It's about time to see a Ted Ginn touchdown on a return of some kind.
• Did I mention that John Beck should be playing?
• Bills 28, Dolphins 24
  

Power Rankings - Week 9

I split up the two conferences because I'm too mentally challenged for a 32 team single table format.

AFC

1. New England - Anything less than 16-0 would be an upset
   
2. Indianapolis - They gave it away, but should feel good about a rematch
   
3. Pittsburgh - I'm still not sold they can beat the Patriots or Colts
   
4. Tennessee - They need to develop a passing game to be a real threat
   
5. Jacksonville - Their reliable defense was obliterated in New Orleans
   
6. Cleveland - They keep winning, but they need a reliable defense
   
7. Buffalo - Statistically bad, but they are 4-4 and should be 6-2
   
8. San Diego - Their offense didn't show up, that's a concern
   
9. Kansas City - Tough game against this season's team of destiny
   
10. Houston - Still not very good
    
11. Baltimore - They are falling off the deep end
    
12. Denver - 31st in point differential per game
    
13. Cincinnati - Rough, rough year, reminiscent of 90's
    
14. Oakland - They are not a good football team
    
15. New York Jets - As many losses as the Rams and Dolphins
    
16. Miami - Bye week stopped the bleeding

NFC

1. Dallas - Only lost to the Patriots
   
2. Green Bay - This years team of destiny
   
3. New York Giants - Bye week reduced some of their hype
   
4. Detroit - No comment
   
5. New Orleans - One of the best in last four weeks
   
6. Washington - They beat the Jets and Dolphins by a combined six points
   
7. Tampa Bay - Up and down goes the roller coaster
   
8. Minnesota - Adrian Peterson
   
9. Seattle - They will win the West by default
   
10. Carolina - They are going to the Super Bowl, right?
    
11. Chicago - They are not our of it in the NFC
    
12. Philadelphia - They needed that one bad, too bad it was against Dallas
    
13. Arizona - Same old Cardinals
    
14. Atlanta - Enjoy the win while you can
    
15. San Francisco - This was my pick to win the NFC West
    
16. St. Louis - They are still trying to score their 100th point of the season