Ted Ginn & Tonic

LOLphins: Week 5 vs New York Jets

2009-10-16T21:48:00.000-04:00

I'm sorry for having been on a bye month rather than bye week. I won't bore you with excuses or reasons why I have been as inactive as Patrick Turner. I've never meant for this blog to perform as poorly as the real Ted Ginn (pre-Monday night) but it has turned out that way and I apologize. Look for more bad humor in the future and for now I'll leave you with animated .gif's of the winning touchdown celebrations. First, Ronnie Brown appears to be mimicking a real Dolphin. The second is of course Tony Sparano being a badass.

roflbot base images via sun-sentinel.com
.gif's via FinHeaven user TX_Dolfan

Colts vs Dolphins: Preview & Keys

2009-09-21T10:32:00.000-04:00

This won't exactly be an in-depth preview, but here are some key points

Miami should feel a sence of urgency, as the Jets and Bills each have looked impressive in the first two weeks. The Patriots look a bit out of sync but you know they will pick it up. This year it won't be as easy to come back if the team falls two or more games back.
For a team that prides itself on a balanced attack and ball control offense, I didn't see too much commitment to the run in week one. The team was never down by more than two scores, and time was not an issue, yet Ronnie Brown only got ten carries. Ricky Williams had seven. I'd expect to see ome of the traditional wildcat formation with the unbalanced line to help get some big plays from the running game.
It will be important for the defense to blitz Peyton Manning and get to him. Take a cue from Rex Ryan's Jets and make the quarterback get rid of the ball before he likes. Make him hit the appropriate check downs and stop them for short gains. If we allow him time for routes to develop and receivers to find the open zones, it could be a long night.
We must find a way to get Ted Ginn involved. Since we can't throw deep routes, we should use him on the end-around that resulted in two touchdown's last year. I'd also like to see him motion ino the slot from time to time, hopefully creating matchup problems.

Falcons 19, Dolphins 7: Recap

2009-09-13T20:20:00.001-04:00

Revisiting the Keys

The offense could not get anything going for a long time. I said Miami should take some shots down the field early, to test the secondary and hopefully open up the field. Except for the one Pat White pass (great play call), they did not. I can't blame them too much though because the offensive line was getting beat and giving up sacks even on intermediate pass plays. Ultimately the problem was not being able to run the ball well early in the game. The line is a better run blocking unit than pass blocking, and it will be imperative for us to win on first down and not set up obvious passing situations.

Defensively, we did very well, particularly with Michael Turner. In fact we did better than I could have imagine with him as he was limited to under three yards a carry and did not break any long runs. Tony Gonzalez however, did make a huge impact. We saw the safeties rotate covering him and for the most part it didn't work. Now a couple times he just made outstanding plays that were indefensible, but I thought on obvious passing downs we could have done a better job of jamming him at the line or perhaps double covering him.

Special Teams didn't factor much in the game. For the most part the Dolphins coverage units were good. The discouraging element of the special teams game was not being able to get any decent kickoff return. I credit Atlanta's superb coverage units but also think the elimination of the three-man wedge plays a big role for a below-average Miami special teams unit.

Random Other Thoughts

Not the best advertisement for Anthony Fasano who is trying to get a contract extension. The first fumble was tough and somehwat unlucky, but you can't cough it up twice. The second was especially inexcusable
Our rookie corners will be targeted. Even though Sean Smith had an impressive preseason, Atlanta went after him and if not for some poor throws or drops, could have burned him big. I have confidence in Sean though and he will get another tough test against Peyton Manning next week.
If not for the Immaculate Deflection in Cincinnati, Greg Camarillo would have NFL play of the week honors for that crazy ricochet, bring ball in with back of legs catch in the first half. It's unfortunate the referees did not call that properly in real time because it should have been a touchdown.
Back to Pat White, nothing really of note happened today, but I like the potential for the ~~WildPat, Whitecat, Spread~~ Pat White offense. The key just like the Ronnie Brown led wildcat is the offensive line must block and give time for plays to develop and give our talented runners at least a small hole to run through. The pass play by White was a great call and hopefully he can be somewhat accurate on those in the future.

Look Ahead

The schedule doesn't let up, as the Indianapolis Colts come in for a Monday Night Football game.

Miami at Atlanta: Preview & Keys

2009-09-13T10:47:00.000-04:00

Sorry for the gross inactivity lately, I've been very ~~busy with work~~ lazy. But the regular season is finally here so you can be expecting plenty of updates.So let's get right to it and discuss this week's keys to the games

Offense

Atlanta's defense and in particular their secondary did not show well in the preseason. The question is, will the Dolphins take some chances and try to exploit that weakness in the deep passing game, or will they stick to their philosophy and focus on running the ball and the short and intermediate passing attack? I think it's important they take some shots deep early and hopefully complete a couple to help open up the entire field for the rest of the game. We saw last year when opponents could put eight in the box, especially for the wildcat formation plays, we had a difficult time running the ball and moving the chains. This offense needs to make the proper progression this year and be able to defeat that defense, hopefully by preemptively showing the willingness to throw deep. I know Chad Pennington can't chuck it that far, but offensive coordinator Dan Henning must find a way to get some favorable matchups in the secondary and try to let our receivers make plays.

Defense

Michael Turner is going to rush the ball well and he will get good yardage and possibly some touchdowns, but we can't let ourselves get continually gashed by the running game. It is important that the front seven finds a way to get some big wins on first down by getting tackles for a loss and setting up second and third and longs. That way they can blitz stud quarterback Matt Ryan and hopefully get the ball out of his hands early and let our secondary make plays. They are improved, but we can't ask them to cover for more than a few seconds. The obvious focus in the passing game will be tight end Tony Gonzalez. We must find him on third downs and blanket him. Nothing is more frustrating for a defense than to give up third down conversions and Gonzalez is always a factor on those and also in the red zone. I actually think a good ploy would be to put rookie cornerback Sean Smith on him at times to see if that's a good matchup. Smith has shown terrific in the preseason and has earned the opportunity.

Special Teams & Intangibles

Last year Miami's coverage units were not good. This preseason did nothing to make anyone think they'll be better. It is imperative that they not gift away points by allowing long returns or making other mistakes in the special teams game. Easier said than done. Also, Atlanta was very good at home in 2008 going 7-1. The dome provides a lot of crowd noise and for the first game of the season after an 11-5, eight win improvement, we can expect the place to be rocking. Miami didn't have a problem with penalties last year but we might see some false starts today.

Final Thoughts

I love the unpredictability of week one. I can envision us picking up right where the 2008 regular season left off and scoring a win, but also I wouldn't be surprised if we struggled and Atlanta controlled the game. For that reason I will make no prediction and just hope for a Dolphins victory.

The Lex Hilliard Conundrum

2009-08-26T10:15:00.001-04:00

There has been a lot of chatter in the South Florida media and message boards about running back Lex Hilliard. He has shown very well in the first two preseason games and definitely looks like an NFL player. The problem is that he is caught in a numbers game. Only 53 players will make the active roster, and more importantly only three RB are assured to be a part of that 53. With Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and Coach's favorite player Patrick Cobbs in front of Hilliard, it would seem he is an odd man out.

However, many have voiced the opinion that we should keep Hilliard and find a way to keep him on the roster. Some believe it's as simple as keeping the four backs. Some have raised the question of if the team should try to trade Ricky Williams or Patrick Cobbs to make room. Some have suggested just trading Hilliard. I thought it would be good idea to look at each scenario and voice my opinion.

Practice Squad: Like last year, he could be stashed on the practice squad. This is probably not a real option though because any team can swoop in and pick him up so long as they add him to their active roster. With Hilliard's display in the preseason (including two special teams tackles) there is not much doubt in my mind that a bad team void of much talent will grab him (Lions).

Trade: I don't foresee any type of trade with any of the backs for a variety of reasons. First of all, you don't see many RB traded because of the belief you can pick one up anywhere. A number of backs emerge each year and many come with little hype. A lot of low round picks and undrafted guys can get the job done. Because of this, all of our backs value to this team greatly exceeds their value in a trade.

Keep Four RB: It's going to happen. First Jim Mandich said on his radio show that he has shown well enough that the team will find a way, and they won't just let loose someone who they perceive as a great football player. This morning Ethan Skolnick wrote in his blog that he is close to a lock to make the team and offensive coordinator Dan Henning is trying to devise ways to use him.

For those of you that believe there is no way that a Bill Parcells team would waste roster spots on fourth running backs, I got news for you. He has done it, as recently as last year. We had a similar problem last year with Jalen Parmele. Eventually he did make the team and lasted three weeks. We then added tight end Joey Haynos and Parmele was waived. But that at least proves Lex has a good chance and the idea of keeping four backs isn't too foreign.

One reason I feel this would be good is because running back is one of the most often injured positions in the NFL. I'm not just talking season ending injuries, a lot times guys will get nicked up and have to sit out a week or two. Yes, we could bring in a back from anywhere, but they won't have the knowledge of the playbook and experience with the team that Hilliard offers. He also has shown enough that he at least raises the question about how bright a future he has. What could he do in a regular season game if he was given 10-15 carries? I'd rather find out with him wearing a Dolphins uniform and nothing else.

(image via daylife.com)

Roster Trimming

2009-08-24T21:27:00.003-04:00

A bit unexpected today, there was a flurry of moves by the Dolphins. Even though the first mandated roster cut (from 80 to 75 players) isn't until next Monday, the team did their business today, and then some.

The first news to break was that Miami has released Ernest Wilford. The only surprising thing about this move was the timing. A while back, I didn't expect Wilford to make it to camp, but when he did, I figured he'd be one of the last guys cut. To be honest, he's showed some promise in his position switch to tight end. The problem his, he is battling for the third TE job, and to do that, you need to play some special teams. Ernest does not and therefore Joey Haynos and John Nalbone offer a bit more.

The major aftereffect of this move is the salary cap hit. Armando Salguero of the Herald reports that because of some rule changes because of a possible uncapped year in the NFL in 2010, the Dolphins must absorb the rest of his signing bonus (which amounts to about $4.5 million) this year. That sounds bad on the surface, but I don't think we are in cap trouble this year and maybe it's better to get that money out of the way and not have it linger. The main thing it does is perhaps protect guys like Jason Allen, who if cut would pose more cap trouble.

Later, word got out that also cut were Anthony Kimble, Orion Martin, Joe Cohen, Tearrius George, and Chris Williams. None of those are surprising as these guys were longshots and haven't done much of note. Williams was actually injured on that muffed punt off his face and he is now on the waived/injured list. Once he clears waivers, he will likely get a small injury settlement and get on his way.

The last movement was a trade involving offensive linemen Andy Alleman and Ikechuku Ndukwe. They are headed to Kansas City and in return we get a 2010 draft pick (most likely a 5th or 6th round choice). This did surprise me a bit, since they both figured to be in the mix for the reserve offensive linemen spots. This makes me believe that the team is fully confident in Donald Thomas' health and abilities, and that Shawn Murphy is ready to fill in if needed.

Game Recap: Carolina Panthers, Sat Aug 22nd

2009-08-23T10:40:00.000-04:00

As promised, here are my thoughts on the three main things I was watching, as described in my preview. I've also included a couple tweets from last night.

Quarterbacks: It was an above average night for the signal callers and the most important thing is that they didn't turn the ball over. They did chip in two nice touchdown passes though. Chad Pennington showed why he is most certainly the present as he methodically moved the ball and led the offense to 10 points in his three drives. Chad Henne also looked pretty good. He was at the helm for 17 2nd half points, although he didn't get the ball down the field as much. We didn't see much of Pat White, but in his one drive his passes could have been a bit more accurate and lead to larger gains. Again, he showed more promise running the ball, even though it wasn't from the wildcat formation.

Cornerbacks: It was a big night for Vontae Davis as he was trying to bounce back from a shaky opener. He played a lot of the game due to the absences of Sean Smith and Jason Allen and did very well. He showed his excellence in run support and stopping short pass plays. I didn't notice him much in coverage, which is usually a good thing. None of the three fringe players really stood out to me, in fact Joey Thomas made an impression on the wrong side as several passes were completed in his direction.

8:46 PM: I'm glad I wasn't buying the hype with Chris Wiliams, he makes a lot of mistakes.

Special Teams: A muffed punt for a second consecutive game and this one was costly, as it allowed Carolina to take the lead before the half. He also hasn't flashed as much brilliance as people seem to think. Simply put, he's probably already done enough in the wrong direction to seal his ticket out of here. If Ted Ginn had done what Williams has in the last two games, people would be calling him the worst player ever, but because he is an undrafted player, the fans will always love his potential. Neither kicker flinched in the kicking battle, although both players kickoffs could be better. Carpenter does have the slightly stronger leg, so I imagine he will retain his job.

8:42 PM: How are fumble recoveries not reviewable? That was CLEARY Dolphins football!

This was just strange, but if it was a real game it would have been infuriating. A Panthers punt returner fumbles the ball and a pile ensues. The player who comes out of the pile with the ball is a Dolphin. Ball awarded to Carolina. Okay, let's see a replay. Replay clearly shows the Dolphin player possess the ball on the ground and be touched down before the pile ensues. Okay, we will challenge and get the call right. What's that? You can't challenge fumble recoveries? The competition committee will have to look at that one, because it was pretty clear and obvious that the call was wrong and could have easily been fixed. That's why we have replay, right?

Preseason: Game Two

2009-08-22T16:38:00.005-04:00

Tonight the Dolphins take on the Panthers here in rainy Miami for their second of four preseason games. Last game, I said I wouldn't update much via Twitter. Well, I ended up posting ten times (not including @ replies) and it was mostly failed humor attempts. But as @Tomas_Verde pointed out, the great thing about failed humor is that it's humorous in its failure. And he should know, as he is the author of 4th and Fail (surprisingly not a Dave Wannstedt blog). So tonight you can expect more awkward exclamations and bad humor attempts courtesy of @tedhill. If you don't want to leave this page, I placed a widget on the side of this page that should pick up all of my messages tonight.

But, I will at least try to expand upon it. Last game, partly because I was busy, but mainly because I was lazy, I didn't have any sort of game recap or thoughts. After this game, for the recap, I will revisit some of my posts and expand upon them. For now, here is a short little preview.

Three Main Things I Am Watching Tonight

First, the focus always seems to be on the quarterbacks in preseason games and though none of Miami's signal callers had bad performances on Monday, they didn't offer definitive answers to questions surrounding them. Fans want to know if Chad Pennington can duplicate his 2008 success and perhaps improve. Will Chad Henne stamp his name as the surefire 2010 starter? Can Pat White offer an immediate impact as spread/wildcat quarterback? Hopefully we will see more tonight from each of those three and make an already great QB situation even better.

Also, the cornerbacks should be an interesting watch tonight. Supposed starter Sean Smith and Jason Allen will absent due to illness. After the cutting of Eric Green, that only leaves five corners. Three of them figure to be battling for the last spot on our roster, so they should get a long look and will have a great opportunity to showcase themselves, good or bad.

Finally, I will pay a lot of attention to special teams, for several reasons. First, it was a sore spot for the team last year, and much improvement is needed on the coverage teams. Also, there has been a lot of hype about Chris Williams this week, and I think it is mainly unwarranted. Yes, he did have a couple nice returns, but he still committed three cardinal sins last week (muff, field one inside the 10-yard line, get tackled by a kicker). I have nothing against him, I would like to see him do well, but let's see how he does in game two. Lastly, there seems to still be a kicking battle between Dan Carpenter and Connor Barth. Apparently in practice neither has flinched and it has been neck and neck. Any miss in a game could prove very costly.

Training Camp: News & Notes Vol. 1

2009-08-05T08:00:00.004-04:00

Three days and five practices in, there have been a number of newsworthy bits from the Dolphins training camp.

Matt Roth

Roth did not pass conditioning tests and told the team he was ill. His agent Drew Rosenhaus says he has a groin strain (again). All this has made for quite the frantic search for info between the media and the team. For now he has been sent for tests on the groin and has not participated in practice. Roth was a key last year at the OLB spot. Sure, he isn't the best at rushing the passer or dropping into coverage, but he did a great job against the run and was sound in the other areas, and contributed to a good linebacking corps. His absence might be okay for now though. It should create more opportunities to see Jason Taylor, Cameron Wake, and others though try to provide more clarity to how the OLB rotation should work. Hopefully Matt will be back soon though, we need him.

Twitter

There was a buzz day one when the team told the credentialed media and fans they were not allowed to post live updates via Twitter during the practices. There was a mini-outrage that played out on Twitter from fans and media about how bogus that is. I actually understand where the team is coming from though, and would tend to agree with their line of thinking. Hey, they don't really have to let anyone (including media) witness these practices. They can enact and enforce any rules they so choose. The real problem is there is not much they can do. It is impossible to enforce, especially amongst fans. They probably would have been better served just accepting the fact that tweets will be sent and asking the media and fans to be very discretionary about what they post.

Also, Ethan says the Dolphins have banned Twitter use by players. Since then though, @SeanSmith4 has still been active. My guess is that perhaps Ethan misunderstood, and the team has only banned Twitter use during any team activities. Either that or the rook will be getting a fine soon.

Big Crowd

The first day of camp saw a huge crowd in Davie. The bleachers that hold around 2,000 fans were completely filled and there was another 1,000 or so that showed up and lined the fences or the parking structure as you can see in the photo, courtesy of Sun Sentinel. The team likes the support and they've asked for another huge crowd for Saturday's 2:00pm scrimmage. I may go.

Training Camp: Welcome to 2009

2009-08-02T08:00:00.000-04:00

Hey, Training Camp is here! It's been a long few months since the draft ended but now it is finally time to begin preparation for the new season. Now when it comes to training camp, I'd give you wall to wall coverage, but I can't. I don't go to practices or anything. I read the same reports from the real media that you do. Because of that, I'll just try to jump on every few days and give my take on any major developments.

As for recommended coverage, the Sun-Sentinel is the best, in my opinion. Follow their Dolphins blog. Follow reporters Omar Kelly, Mike Berardino, and Ethan Skolnick on Twitter¹ as well. Also, for up to the date roster moves and analysis, Chris Nelson's Phins Spotlight is great. Lastly, every Miami Dolphins fan MUST be reading Fins Nation, no explanation needed.

I also have a couple of non-training camp pieces I have been working on, such as deconstructing the arguments as to why the Dolphins will not match their success of 2008, and a large Season Preview series. Those shall be posted periodically throughout camp and preseason. As for in-season coverage, expect a lot more. I'll have better game previews and recaps along with more analysis on major Dolphins developments throughout the season, and of course in depth thoughts on the polarizing figure that is Ted Ginn.

¹In case you didn't know, you can follow me on Twitter as well. You'll see a lot of Florida Marlins thoughts in there because I also co-author a Marlins blog. But, once football season rolls around, expect that to be mainly mindless Dolphins ramblings.

Miami Signs Backup Long Snapper

2009-05-13T13:50:00.001-04:00

I kid, I kid. By now you have probably read/heard that Jason Taylor has signed and will return to the Dolphins after a one year absence. The JT robot remains a free agent and his said to be very unhappy with the lack of offers It is believed that Jason will earn a $1.1 million base with $400,000 more available through incentives. His role on the team surely won't be a backup long snapper as I facetiously stated in the headline. I imagine he will be part of a solid rotation at OLB, and may also play DE in 4-3 nickel or dime packages on third downs. Who knows, he may even play on some special teams units. That's all I think we need to know for now. There is no need to over analyze this and try to figure out exactly how he will be used. I don't even think the team knows that, or they would have signed him a while ago. Instead let's take a look at the trade from last year that sent him to Washington.

Dolphins Received

A 2nd round pick in 2009, #44 overall, used to select QB Pat White
A 6th round pick in 2010, still to be used
A good chunk of cap room for the remaining years left on Taylor's deal (2008-09). I believe he was due at least $8 million in both years

Dolphins Lost

One injury filled, unproductive season of Jason Taylor, in which the Dolphins made the playoffs anyway. Something that did not happen in Taylor's previous five seasons with Miami.

Thank you Daniel Snyder.

2006 Draft Revisited

2009-04-27T15:26:00.005-04:00

Since everyone is giving out draft grades I thought it would be fun to join the party. Only, I won't be foolishly grading this year's draft. I'll take a look at the 2006 draft, now that three years has passed and that seems like ample time to get a reasonable grade. The 2006 draft for the Dolphins can be summed up rather quickly.

Worst. Draft. Ever.

1st Round, #16 Overall: Jason Allen, CB

He entered as a hybrid CB/S who was thought of as a gifted athlete. Well, it turns out his NFL career has resembled this classic youtube. In his rookie year, he bounced from corner to safety often and never found a role. He struggled for playing time and didn't make a good first impression. In his second year, the 1-15 disaster, it took injuries to five different safeties before he got a start. He had one good game against Philadelphia, but was still underwhelming. Last year he saw some more consistent playing time, but only in nickel and dime packages. All the while he has played some special teams but even in that regard, I recall more mistakes than anything.

This is a classic first round bust. First rounders should be consistent starters and contributors and perhaps even pushing for pro bowls. Worse than the fact he hasn't panned out is actually the money he has received and may continue to get. He got a six year deal (final year is voidable) with $8 million in guarantees. I'm no salary cap expert but I'm pretty sure even if he is cut this instant, he'd still have an effect on this and next year's cap number. The contract has probably been the biggest reason he has stuck around, and that's never good. I'd say with the three new corners and two new safeties, his days are numbered.

Notable DB still on the board: Antonio Cromartie, Kelly Jennings

2nd Round: Traded to Minnesota for Daunte Culpepper

We all know how that turned out. This was yet another wasted trading of a high draft pick.

3rd Round, #82 Overall: Derek Hagan

Derek Hagan set records at Arizona St. and in the Pac 10, most of which have been ecplipsed, but his draft stock fell after the Senior Bowl and combine. The Dolphins grabbed him because we needed receiver help and he was expected to be a contributor. But, poor Hagan had the drops in his first year and was never able to climb the depth chart and make an impact. 2007 brought a better opportunity with a coaching change and the trades of Wes Welker and later Chris Chambers. Still though, production was at a minimum. The third year is usually when it clicks for receivers but Hagan never got it going in 2008 and was lost amongst a below-avergage corps of pass catchers. He was released mid season.

I'm not sure third round picks can be busts, but this is pretty close. He was in the top 100 after all and the sixth receiver taken. Plus, it's not like he was stuck behind solid veterans and pro bowlers. Miami's receiving corps were awful in his years here and he still couldn't crack the starting lineup, save for one game. My final verdict is a definite miss and a mini-bust.

Notable WR still on the board include Brandon Marshall and Domenick Hixon

4th Round, # Overall: Joe Toledo, OL

A mid round picked was used here on an offensive tackle, but he started out playing some guard. Injuries plagued Joe however and he spent a good time on the PUP list. He was released following the 2007 season. This pick was a swing and a miss.

5th Round: Pick forfeited due to use in 2005 Supplemental Draft

We lost this pick due to the selection of the infamous Manuel Wright in the previous year's supplemental draft. You may remember Manny as being out of shape and crying after a Nick Saban verbal lashing. Predictably, he barely played and was released shortly after the Cam Cameron experience started. Another miss here.

7th Round, #212 Overall: Fred Evans, DT

He made the team but was mostly inactive. In the following season he was arrested for an off field incident and released shortly after. Miss.

7th Round, #226 Overall, Rodrique Wright, DT

Amazingly, this has been the best pick of this draft (which is not saying much). He fell in the draft because he had a bad rotator cuff and he missed all of 2006. He did make the 2007 Cam Cameron Dolphins and had a handful of starts. In 2008 he has survived but only as an inactive player. His prospects are similar for 2009 and he once again must fight to make the team. I guess this pick was a mini-hit. Seventh rounders usually don't make the team but he has survived, for now.

7th Round, #233 Overall, Devin Aromashodu, WR

Miami took a small gamble on a local kid and it didn't work out. Devin did not make the team in 2006. Miss.

Final Thoughts

I don't think much more explanation is needed for how awful this draft was. Only one tiny tick mark in the win column and huge amount on the other side. No gems were found, not even a consistent or fringe starter in the NFL. This is one of a several drafts this decade that set back the development of this team and was the major contributor towards the downfall of the franchise. This most definitely deserves and has earned an F-.

2009 Dolphins Draft Picks & Thoughts

2009-04-27T08:00:00.000-04:00

1st Round, #25 Overall: Vontae Davis, CB, Illinois
As the first couple hours of the draft went on, I was really liking how things were shaping up. A couple teams made some reaches and when it was the Dolphins turn to pick, there was plenty of great options. I personally thought LB Rey Maualuga would be the pick because it just seemed a perfect fit for Parcells, but the brain trust decided to take someone who some considered a top ten talent and fit our greatest need. I have absolutely no problem with that. I thought Vontae Davis would be gone before #25 and because of that, hadn't thought much about him or if he would be a good fit. Most believe he is. He is a bigger corner who is physical, which not only fits the Parcells philosophy, but is needed in our division with so many great big physical receivers to tame.

The only concern that is popping up is character. I would understand why fans would be worried and confused as to why Parcells, who stresses character so much, would draft someone of even remotely questionable character. Well, this reminds me a bit about what the 'Canes used to do and what the Patriots still do. Once you create a good locker room filled with great character guys, you can take a chance on one or two questionable players because most likely, the good people will keep them in line. We also have hard ass coaches and Parcells himself to make sure he isn't too full of himself.

2nd Round, #44 Overall: Pat White, QB, West Virginia
Leading up to this pick, the name I was really hoping to keep falling was Everette Brown. He is a great pass rusher who I saw a lot as he is from Florida St. But, the Panthers snatched him up. Just before the selection was made, on the bottom of ESPN's screen was Mel Kiper's best available and I saw Pat White's name at six or eight and I thought, "Hmm, that'd be an interesting pick." And sure enough, it happened. I can't tell you how unexpectedly excited I was when I saw his name as the current selection. I did think some in the lead up to the draft about the possibility of having Pat and what he can bring to the wildcat, but once it was announced, the joy of imagining the possibilities multiplied by a factor of at least three.

It shows the team is committed to the wildcat formation. It shows they will stay creative in trying to move the ball and score points. The fact that the pick was high also suggests they were very intent on getting him, not just hoping it would work out. David Lee and Dan Henning have the best new toy they could have hoped for on draft day. On wildcat plays he can either receive the snap and be a true run-pass threat, or he can replace Pennington as the wideout and have to be accounted for as a run-receiving threat. And that's just scratching the surface. Remember last year the wildcat was built in a week and kept expanding. Now the coaching staff has an entire offseason and training camp to come up with stuff that can work and keep defenses on it's heels. Last year, wildcat plays were runs about 90% of the time. A big battle in improving the formation so it sticks around, is balancing the run-pass ratio. Pat White does that.

Also, don't put it past Pat White to be a starting quarterback at some point. He is the prototypical, won't take no for an answer, hard working winner. Mike Mayock (who is the best draft expert I'd say) loves him and was surprised by his arm strength and his accuracy.

2nd Round, #61 Overall: Sean Smith, CB, Utah
Miami traded down five spots here at the end of day one and ended up with it's best pick. Sean Smith is physical and even bigger than Vontae Davis at the cornerback spot. I heard multiple places before the draft saying we might take him with our first pick. Instead he's there in round two, and the trade with Indy netted us another fifth round choice of this year. I love the decision to take two corners in day one. Even the best of organizations don't hit on all their picks and this gives us a better chance at finding one great corner. If they both stick, then great, we have a corner tandem that may rival the Surtain-Madison duo we once had. Personally, I think Smith might wind up as the best pro from this draft class for us. I only saw him play a handful of times but was always impressed, especially in his final collegiate game, shutting down Julio Jones of Alabama (who could play in the NFL right now). He, like Davis, gives us a guy who when the ball is in the air, regardless of how good the coverage was, you feel will win the battle for the ball against the receiver. This was our biggest problem in the secondary. We could actually cover well, but that doesn't mean a damn thing if you let a receiver fight and win the ball anyways.

3rd Round, #87 Overall: Patrick Turner, WR, USC
This pick elicited many "WTF?!?" comments on Twitter and the message boards. Going receiver wasn't the issue, it was the certain receiver who was picked. Turner underachieved at USC, before turning in a good final year. Still he was a bit of a disappointment there as he was the top rated WR in the country coming out of high school. A peek at the experts big boards and position rankings says that there were better receivers out there and this was a reach. That's probably all true, but perhaps Patrick is the best fit for us. Again, it's a big physical player (notice a theme) and he provides a different skill set then our current corps of pass catchers. Our roster is loaded with smaller guys who do well in the slot and running short routes. Patrick Turner is probably going to attempt to be everything that Ernest Wilford wasn't. Sure he doesn't have great speed, but if he can run crisp routes and get a little bit of separation, you'll like his chances in an airial battle. Particularly, the Dolphins desparately need someone who is competent in the fade route. It takes more the height. It's about positioning and is a lot like grabbing a rebound in basketball. Hopefully he can provide this and other aspects at the the receiver position.

4th Round, #108 Overall: Brian Hartline, WR, Ohio St.
Again, this had many scratching their heads. I had a feeling they would double up on a position again, like they did with corners, but I didn't expect Hartline. He seems like one of those guys. He will never wow you or put up big numbers but he seems to always remind you that he's there. I know Michigan fans can attest to that. Plus, I know as much as I hate Ohio St., they have put plenty of receivers into the NFL and they have a good success rate. His calling card may be special teams as he apparently loves cracking guys on coverage units. To me this just seems very Parcells-like.

5th Round, #161 Overall: John Nalbone, TE, Monmouth
I was like 99% of the world, I have not heard of this guy. I know nothing about him. Picking a tight end though is probably smart because Anthony Fasano and David Martin are in the last year of their contract. It might also help if he can work in the H-back role and perhaps even fullback too. We'll see, this is a project.

5th Round, #165 Overall: Chris Clemons, FS, Clemson
More secondary help. He stands a good shot at making it because we don't have much depth at safety. He won't beat out the starters but as a late round pick if you can show promise and contribute on special teams then you will stick around.

6th Round, #181 Overall: Andrew Gardner, OT, Georgia Tech
Finally, a position in the trenches, a Parcells favorite has been taken. You can never have too much depth at offensive line. He was a great value as a shoulder injury probably cause his stock to fall.

7th Round, #214 Overall: J.D. Folsom, LB, Weber St.
Another small schools guy, another project, wait and see.

Things This Draft Has Taught Me

The team likes it's pass rushing situation. There were plenty of good prospects for edge rushers in the 3-4 and the fact we didn't take one shows good faith in CFL import Cameron Wake or perhaps also an imminent signing of Jason Taylor. I've been a bit reserved about bringing JT back, but for a small money deal and him not being an every down player, it may be a good fit.
Once again, Parcells and Co. have opted for off the radar receivers and hope they have something to prove, rather than using high draft picks or trades to acquire big name prima donnas who act bigger than the team. There were big names to get via trade or the first two rounds, but the team waited and hopefully these guys prove something because they certainly have a good shot.
Fans are tough. Around the Web 2.0 I saw some harsh critics of the Dolphins' draft calling it horrible and predicting the team will be right back to it's losing ways. I'm not saying you have to love our draft, but doesn't a front office who instantly turns the 1-15 laughing stock into an 11-5 playoff team deserve a benefit of the doubt?
John Beck is done as a Dolphin. I had high promise for Beck and I think he can still find his ways, but change of scenery is needed and soon will be granted. Good luck John, sorry you had to be drafted by Cam Cameron.

Draft Day

2009-04-25T11:28:00.004-04:00

Well, it's here. It is NFL Draft Day. The party actually got started last night as you may well have heard by now, Matthew Stafford agreed to terms with the Detroit Lions and he is "The One." He gets nearly $42 million in guaranteed money and the full value of the six-year contract could reach $78 million after incentives. Here's a hint, it won't.

Anyway, it will be a strange draft day for me for two reasons. One, there will be no Miami Hurricanes drafted in the first round, day, and possibly entire draft. Usually, wondering where all the 'Canes would end up would keep me interested enough to watch 99% of the draft, but this year all I really get to care about are the Dolphins picks. This leads me to reason number two, Miami isn't picking in the top half of round one. That combined with the fact the draft now starts at 4:00 PM means there won't be much to wake me from a nap.

As for who I think the Dolphins should/will pick? Wide receiver and cornerback are obviously the two biggest needs but there's reason to believe they won't take either position in round one. Parcells doesn't like to draft receivers high (so no Percy Harvin, get it?), he believes you can get them anywhere. Plucking Davone Bess last year from the undrafted free agents probably furthers this belief. As for corners, I don't feel there is a big gap between players you can get in round one and players available in rounds three or four.

The USC linebacking troika are all potential picks. I really like Rey Maualuga, who is a beast from the ILB spo. But he seems the least likely to become a Dolphin because he will go earlier (Please move up and get him). Clay Matthews and Brian Cushing are possibilities but I'm not too keen on them. Both remind me of Channing Crowder (solid, but not many superlatives). We already have a Channing.

The last little category of guys who could be taken are the hybrid DE/OLB pass rushers. I'd love Everette Brown from FSU, but he'll be gone (Wouldn't mind moving up for him either). All the other names I've heard (Clint Sintim, Larry English, Aaron Maybin, Robert Ayers) seem good but may be a bit of a reach at #25. We maybe should gamble and hope one of them lasts to #44.

I'll have updates throughout the afternoon/evening depending on how the draft shakes out and maybe a post as soon as we acquire players.

2009 Miami Dolphins Schedule and Thoughts

2009-04-14T19:01:00.001-04:00

Week	H/A	Opponent	Date	Time	TV
1	at	Atlanta Falcons	Sep. 13th	1:00 PM	CBS
2		Indianapolis Colts	Sep. 21st	8:30 PM	ESPN
3	at	San Diego Chargers	Sep. 27th	4:15 PM	CBS
4		Buffalo Bills	Oct. 4th	4:05 PM	CBS
5		New York Jets	Oct. 11th	8:30 PM	ESPN
6		Bye Week
7		New Orleans Saints	Oct. 25th	4:15 PM	FOX
8	at	New York Jets	Nov. 1st	1:00 PM	CBS
9	at	New England Patriots	Nov. 8th	1:00 PM	CBS
10		Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Nov. 15th	1:00 PM	FOX
11	at	Carolina Panthers	Nov. 19th	8:20 PM	NFLN
12	at	Buffalo Bills	Nov. 29th	1:00 PM	CBS
13		New England Patriots	Dec. 6th	8:20 PM	NBC
14	at	Jacksonville Jaguars	Dec. 13th	1:00 PM	CBS
15	at	Tennessee Titans	Dec. 20th	1:00 PM	CBS
16		Houston Texans	Dec. 27th	1:00 PM	CBS
17		Pittsburgh Steelers	Jan. 3rd	1:00 PM	CBS

Prime Time Games

Miami was given much more respect than I thought as they are scheduled for four national telecasts this year. There are two early season games on Monday Night Football on ESPN, a tough Thursday nighter at Carolina in November on the NFL Network (Good luck Comcast subscribers!) and probably the most intriguing game on the slate, an early December home affair with the Patriots on NBC's Sunday Night Football.

No Weather Concerns

The first thing a lot of Dolphins fans want to know is the prospects for cold and bad weather games late in the year. Last year Miami had to travel to frigid Kansas City and New York to close the year and remarkably reversed the trend. This year it would seem much easier. The only road games in December are early in the month and in southern cities Jacksonville and Nashville. The late November game in Buffalo is probably the best chance to get a game where weather and conditions will be a factor.

On the flip side, one advantage for the team is playing in the tough heat and humidity early in the year, but that will be absent this year. All of the September and October home games are in the 4:00 PM window or a night contest. I think this is a fair trade for avoiding the cold weather and to be honest, the heat advantage has been dwindling in recent years.

Quick Hits

Once again, a fast start seems like a must. The first seven weeks has four home games and a bye week.
I'm not a fan of the midweek games. You really have to prepare for two games in one week but I guess it's still an equal playing field. Plus you could view it as a mini bye week after that game if things go well.
I know a lot of people are talking about the toughest schedules and how Miami's is statistically the hardest but I'm not worried about it for several reasons. One, the teams in our division have nearly the same schedule with the exception of two games. Two, last year Pittsburgh had the toughest schedule and they sis pretty well. Baltimore had a tough schedule, nobody expected much out of them, and they did well too. No matter what the schedule is, if you are good, then you will prove it. Finally, after the easiness our schedule proved to be last year, it's only fair that things are much more difficult this year.

We Interrupt This Hibernation

2009-04-13T14:34:00.003-04:00

What could be so important that I've awakened from a two month slumber to post about?

The NFL Schedule is being released tomorrow!

I'll be sure to post immediately after it's release all of my way too early thoughts that promises to be better than last year's hard-hitting analysis. The only thing that is remotely interesting is whether the Dolphins will return to prime time after last year's absence. My prediction? Yes, but just once.

The NFL Draft is in 12 days!

It just doesn't have the same anticipation when you aren't picking first and need to hit on a lot of picks to instantly improve your team. Also, at this time last year the Dolphins pick was basically narrowed down to between 3-5 players. This year, I swear I have seen at least 10 players going to the Dolphins in mock drafts and it's possible the actual pick could be someone completely unexpected.

Part of the reasons I haven't been writing is because a lot of my time is going to coauthoring a new Marlins blog. Please check it out.

Offseason: Day. . .Something

2009-02-03T11:11:00.003-05:00

It is now the offseason for every NFL team as the Super Bowl was played this past weekend. I won't bore you with many thoughts on that because it is now Tuesday and you've surely heard enough about it. I've been pretty quiet on the blog here since the Dolphins season ended. I've actually had more time to write lately so I'll try to bang out some thoughts on free agency and the draft soon. For now, I'll quickly explain the three areas of most concern (in no particular order)

Playmakers: On offense there are no real home run hitters. The backs are good but their only huge plays were more due to playcalling and scheming rather than playmaking ability. Ted Ginn could be a playmaker in the deep passing game but when Pennington is your QB you pretty much forfeit that option (I'm not compaining, it's just the truth). On defense, the players and scheme are good, but not enough huge game changing plays are made. When interceptions are made, the returns are short. When sacks are made, fumbles are not. We need to turn a good defense into an outstanding one, and the way to do that is by making huge plays and scores.
Offensive Line: Last year we did a great job of reworking the line with the additions of Jake Long and Justin Smiley. We need more depth though and a possible reshaping of the interior line. Smiley's injury really hurt us down the stretch as the running game production decreased and Pennington faced constan pressure. Samson Satele had a dropoff in his second year. I'm not sure if he should be replaced or moved to guard, but he needs to be in an open competition with other good players to see if he's the best option. The unrestricted free agency of Vernon Carey is also an issue. I'd love to sign him and keep him at right tackle, but not breaking the bank account. We'll have to see what happens there.
Coaching Staff: This is all about stability, and the wish is that we don't lose any assistant coaches or coordinators to promotions and jobs with other NFL teams. Whenever you have a good or improving team it's just the reality that you will probably have part of your staff raided (ask Dallas). Luckily it looks like we have survived this for now. Pasqualoni was being mentioned for the Chiefs job (which is still open) and Todd Bowles was a Lions candidate before they settled on Jim Schwartz

Divisional Round: Ravens at Titans

2009-01-06T16:01:00.006-05:00

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
Saturday January 10th, 4:30 PM
Favorite: Titans (-3)

Why the Ravens Will Win: Ed Reed and the Baltimore defense are other-worldly. They simply take over a game and win it all on their own. In the wild card game they were able to frustrate Miami and get them totally out of their element. Not only does the defense hold opponents to low point totals, they set up their offense in good field position and also score themselves. That is tough for opponents to overcome. The Ravens offense is nothing to write home about, but they are able to run the ball when it is needed most, especially late in the game with a lead. Punter Sam Koch is also a huge asset in the field position game.

Why the Titans Will Win: Tennessee is a lot like Miami but better. They run between the tackles better and pose more of a big play threat in the running game. On defense, Albert Haynesworth leads a great run stopping unit and they force turnovers as well. The Titans will be able to get a better pass rush on rookie Joe Flacco and force him into mistakes he didn't make last weekend.

Prediction: Every thing would seem to point to the Ravens, and that's why I will pick the Titans. They play very well at home and will get out to an early lead. That changes things a lot for Baltimore. I also think that Flacco will make one mistake that will set up a field goal or touchdown for the Titans. In the end, that will be the difference.

Titans 20, Ravens 16

Offseason: Day 1

2009-01-05T09:07:00.003-05:00

I had forgotten how disappointing it is to lose in the playoffs, no matter the circumstances are. The thing that you always forget, is the finality of it all. Of course you go into every game knowing that if you lose, then that's it, no more games and the season over, but once it happens, it is always a stunning realization. And just like that, we are into day one of the offseason. 2009 will feature another tough set of challenges for the Dolphins, much different than 2008, but still tough. Lofty expectations will return, along with a more difficult schedule, and the fact that Miami is now part of the hunted rather than being the hunter. Here are a few things I will being doing on this blog between now and the beginning of training camp.

Write-ups About the Top Areas of Concern: Pretty soon, I will explain what I perceive to be the team's areas of most concern going into the offseason. This is not simply a listing of what we need in the draft or free agency, but rather a more in depth look at what the team needs to do to get even better next year.
Full Coverage of the Free Agency Period: Last year Miami signed several guys on day one and made many moves throughout the offseason. I doubt we will make a similar amount of noise this year, but it will still be an important time to track incoming and outgoing players.*
Draft Previews: This year will be much different, since we don't have the number one pick, but we still have three selections in the top sixty and nine total selections in the draft. We saw this year what an impact good draft picks can make in the first year and the draft is the most vital component of long term success in this league.
Other NFL Thoughts: I will also throw in a few posts about general NFL questions and issues. Also stay tuned for playoff game previews and predictions surely to go wrong (even though I managed to go 2-2 this weekend).

*I suggest taking a look at a recent post from the Miami Dolphins Spotlight blog by Chris Nelson, who lists all of the Dolphins different types of free agents and briefly explain what each means. The key names to look at are the unrestricted free agents.

Congratulations Baltimore Ravens

2009-01-04T16:22:00.003-05:00

I'm too disappointed to write a post of real length but just wanted to say congratulations to the Ravens. They were better today and this year. Great season for the Dolphins and if they keep improving then they will be in great shape for next year. MY pick for the late game by the way is for the Eagles to win 28-17

Wild Card Weekend: Baltimore at Miami

2009-01-03T15:42:00.000-05:00

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) @ Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Sunday January 4th, 1:00 PM, CBS
Dolphin Stadium
Favorite: Ravens (-3.5)

In an earlier post I detailed why Miami could win the game so I'll start off this section describing why Baltimore could instead advance. The Ravens defense is awesome. There aren't enough words to accurately depict it's awesomeness. They lead the league in forcing turnovers and frequently dominate games. Because most everybody has the belief that defense wins championships, Baltimore enters this game not only viewed as the favorite but also thought of to be the team that can make a run to the Super Bowl from a wild card spot. Another key in the playoffs is the running game, which is another area where the Ravens excel. The emergence of fullback Le'Ron McClain gives them a bruiser who can get tough yards and help the offensive line dominate the trenches. I just feel though that the Dolphins offense, which led the league in fewest turnovers, will be able to avoid mistakes and on the other side, a rookie quarterback (even though he's a stellar rookie) will make a couple errors.

Pick: Miami 17, Baltimore 16

Wild Card Weekend: Indianapolis at San Diego

2009-01-03T12:02:00.003-05:00

Indianapolis Colts (12-4) vs San Diego Chargers (8-8)

Saturday January 3rd, 8:00 PM, NBC
Favorite: Colts (-1)

The Chargers seem to be getting a lot of play from the media as being "the scariest team in the AFC." I understand the reasoning but let's take a look at their four game run to .500% and a division title. They beat a below average Raiders team at home. Then they needed a minor miracle to come back and beat the 2-14 Chiefs. A road win at Tampa Bay looked impressive at the time, but considering the Bucs then lost to the Raiders and finished up losing four in a row, it wasn't that great. The Chargers then of course finished up by beating the fading Broncos at home who were already defeated before the game started. Not to take anything away from the accomplishment, but San Diego still lost eight games, and is a mediocre team. The Colts haven't been dominant in their nine game win streak, but they are doing much of things they did in their Super Bowl run two years ago. The defense is playing better and Peyton Manning is playing more of a manage the game style, rather than compiling gaudy stats. It still earned him the MVP and I like their chances this postseason.

Pick: Indianapolis 28, San Diego 24

Wild Card Weekend: Atlanta at Arizona

2009-01-03T11:15:00.004-05:00

Atlanta Falcons (11-5) vs Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Saturday January 3rd, 4:30 PM, NBC
University of Phoenix Stadium
Favorite: Falcons (-1)

I haven't thought too highly of the Cardinals this year. They have feasted on a week division for six of their nine wins and have not played very well on the road. They also don't have a particularly good defense (19th in YPG and 28th in PPG). For a while, I was fairly certain they would not win a playoff game this season, but as the year went on I began to feel like they might be able to win one at home, depending on the matchup. Atlanta has had an awesome season and an even brighter future. For this game though, I think it will be tough. They have boh a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback, and while those guys have done as good of a job as anybody, it get's significantly more difficult in the playoffs. It would be very wise of the Falcons to grab an early lead and hope that doubt seeps into the Cardinals minds. It will be a long day if they are trying to chase the game and come from behind against the high flying offense of Arizona.

Pick: Arizona 31, Atlanta 24

Five Reasons Why The Dolphins Will Beat The Ravens

2008-12-30T11:00:00.000-05:00

5. Jason Ferguson: In the week seven loss, nose tackle Jason Ferguson was injured in the first quarter and never returned. He anchors Miami's run defense and is the biggest reason for the turnaround in that department. He occupies blockers and disrupts the timing of rush attempts. Backup nose tackle Paul Soliai was suspended from this game as well, which meant the Dolphins played nearly the entire game in a 3-4 defense with no true nose tackle and a very thin defensive line rotation. That was a recipe for disaster. Miami was lost and allowed a big day on the ground to Willis McGahee, which also led to a good performance by Joe Flacco. That won't happen again. The Ravens will have a much rougher time running the ball, specifically in the red zone. The Ravens run the ball about 80% of the time they are in the red zone. Miami's defense has excelled in the that are late in the season forcing field goal attempts rather than allowing touchdowns. Look for that to continue.

4. The Wildcat: I know what you are thinking. Hey, the Ravens completely shut down the wildcat. In the week seven game, the wildcat formation was a big talking point before the game and the Ravens were able to blow it up and dominate it. At that time in the season though, the wildcat was a crutch for our offense. It's success was essential to set up the rest of our offense. The Dolphins were dependent on it. When it was stopped, our offense didn't stand a chance. That is not the case anymore. The formation and plays are thoroughly ingrained into the system and now it is a part of the offense rather than the focal point. Late in the season we have seen less of the wildcat and it now is just another bullet we have to fire if needed. If the Ravens shut it down, no matter, we will move the ball anyway.

3. 27-13, 20-3: 27-13 is the score from the week seven encounter in which the Ravens were looking for revenge for being Miami's sole defeated opponent in 2007. Congratulations. Now the revenge cycle is on Miami's side. They wish to atone for that week seven loss which was just very uncharacteristic of this team. 20-3 is the score from the last playoff game between these two teams and also the last time Miami was in the playoffs period. Even though no Dolphins are left from that team, the story is being brought up in the media and by the fans and the players feel responsibility to right that wrong as well. Miami owes Baltimore and this is the time. Everyone is picking the Ravens, and that's not surprising. I want it that way and so do the players. They like people telling they won't win and that their magical run is coming to an end.

2. Cam Cameron: When have you ever seen an offensive coordinator get a water cooler dumped on him for winning any game, let alone a regular season game, in the first half of the season? Well that's what happened to Cam Cameron for his initial return to Miami. I hope he's proud of that accomplishment because beating the Dolphins is not in this week's playbook. I already mentioned how the run defense will be better with Jason Ferguson. The pass defense has also vastly improved since that game. The week seven game was an easy one to call because of how poor Miami's defense was. I could have called plays for the Ravens that day and been victorious. Not again. Cameron will have a much tougher time when the run game is not proficient and he will have to put the fate of a playoff game in the hands of a rookie quarterback. Let's also think about his reputation in playoff games. He took the Chargers to two home playoff games in his tenure there and he lost both of them, most notably the 2006 loss to New England after a 14-2 season. He will have a great time with his offense that will fail, forward, fast.

1. Joe Flacco vs Chad Pennington: I like Joe Flacco. I liked him before the draft and I was glad he didn't end up with a team I totally hate. I like what he has done, it has been very impressive. Rookie quarterbacks rarely have success in the NFL but he has done it. But even rarer than rookie quarterbacks having success is rookie quarterbacks having playoff successes. Marino couldn't, Manning couldn't, Roethlisberger couldn't (although he did luckily win one game thanks to epic failures from the Jets kicker) and Flacco won't. Chad Pennington won his first playoff game 41-0 over Peyton Manning's Colts. In 2004 he beat Cam Cameron's Chargers. He's been there, he's won, he's lost, he's seen it all. He is ready. Joe Flacco hasn't seen anything like this, and before you say that he's too dumb to realize the situation and how that's a good thing that pressure doesn't seep into him, well, it's been said before, and it's been wrong before, and it will continue to be wrong. I'll take experienced quarterbacks over rookies in the playoffs every single time.

Week 17: Miami @ New York Jets, In Pictures

2008-12-29T15:05:00.002-05:00

Ted Ginn Scores

2008-12-21T21:02:00.007-05:00

I'll try to come up a full recap tomorrow but for now let's applaud Ted Ginn, who did a great job of running in the open field with no threat of tacklers all the way to the end zone. That gives Ginn two rushing touchdowns on the year to go along with another TD of the receiving variety. Click the image above to watch the play on NFL.com. Now that was a great way to start a football game. Ginn also caught four balls for a total of forty-four yards receiving.

Update: 12/17/2008

2008-12-17T09:22:00.003-05:00

I have been inactive for quite some time here. I actually have about four or five drafts since my last post but I have never finished them. Now I will try to just present several thoughts in a quick hit form and hopefully be more active here at the end of the season.

We all know the playoff scenarios by now, basically if Miami wins the final two games at Kansas City and New York, then they win the division. If that doesn't happen then we probably aren't going to the playoffs. It sounds simple but it should be plenty difficult.
The Chiefs game is one I've looked at for several weeks with unease. It's never easy to go to Arrowhead and win no matter how poorly the Chiefs are playing. Also, I usually hate when this is said, but they are better than their record indicates. They have played some very tough games and should have more wins but they just don't. I hate playing teams like this. Hopefully the Dolphins come out strong and make me laugh at myself for having written this.
Pro Bowl Rosters were announced yesterday and the Dolphins inclusions and exclusions didn't surprise me. Joey Porter is a starter, that was obvious and is 100% legit. Ronnie Brown made it but it's questionable whether he should have got in over Steve Slaton. Ronnie is deserving and the sexiness of the wildcat, combined with the fact he is not a rookie probably got him the nod. I like Slaton and he will probably be making pro bowls soon enough. Brett Favre made it and there is really no argument as for why he should be there other than the fact that he is Brett Favre. This is like the MLB All Star game when lifetime stars make it on name recognition alone. I expected this but it doesn't make it any less of a travesty. Both Philip Rivers and Chad Pennington are having better years and have more of a direct influence on their teams success.
Since the New England game, the defense has not allowed a touchdown and has only allowed 24 total points in three games. I think the biggest reason why has been the defensive line. No one on that unit is putting up big numbers but there are two reasons why. One, in a 3-4 defense the line doesn't make a lot of plays, it is their job to free up linebackers to make plays. Two, we use a rotation in which five or six different guys each get a good amount of playing time, but too much. Randy Starks probably doesn't get enough credit. He's been good on third downs and several times have helped snuff out screen plays that had potential.
Earlier in the year writer Mike Florio wrote an article suggesting that it's time for the NFL to abandon the current four team division format and try something else. Both the AFC and NFC west division show why this is a good idea and I agree. In the AFC west, the Broncos lead with an 8-6 record and the Chargers are still alive with a 6-8 record. In the NFC, the Cardinals have already clinched with an 8-6 record. I'm not saying the eventual division winners aren't deserving, but the system is flawed when a team like San Diego might finish 8-8 in a bad division and get to the playoffs and a team like the Patriots, who could go 11-5 in a tougher division might be left out. I'm not sure what the solution would be but this needs to be explored. Maybe go to two divisions of eight teams each, I don't know.

More later

Week Ten Picks

2008-11-05T15:24:00.007-05:00

I apologize for last weeks picks. They were late and didn't include all of the games. I also haven't update the tally was to my W-L-T record. I'll get to that this week. Here are this week's picks. I am changing the format to save some time. I will only offer a brief explanation of my selection for games that are on national TV.

THURSDAY NIGHT, NFL Network

Denver (+3.5) @ Cleveland : This week will be the first true sense of desperation for the Broncos. It's true they probably should have felt it last week, but despite the loss, they are at .500% and leading the division. You could argue the Browns are the more desperate team (and the replacing of Derek Anderson with Brady Quinn adds weight to that) but they've already been through the rescue process (0-3 to 2-3) and I don't see it happening again.

SUNDAY

New Orleans (+1) @ Atlanta
Tennessee (-3) @ Chicago
Jacksonville (-6.5) @ Detroit
Seattle @ Miami (-9.5)
Green Bay (+1) @ Minnesota
Buffalo @ New England (-3.5)
St. Louis @ New York Jets (-9)
Baltimore @ Houston (+1)
Carolina (-9.5) @ Oakland
Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
Kansas City (+15) @ San Diego

SUNDAY NIGHT, NBC

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia: I love the NFC East. I know it gets a lot of talk and hype from the media but I think it is warranted because each team is real good and every divisional game is huge. You can't afford to lose or have any mini losing streaks or you will fall back quickly. The Eagles have been playing well but I just believe the Giants are on a mission this year to prove that their Super Bowl was not just a magical run, they are that good.

MONDAY NIGHT, ESPN

San Francisco @ Arizona (-9.5): The Cardinals play really well at home and the national viewing audience will give them even more adrenaline to perform. The 49ers can make this a game if they show up but I doubt it finishes within ten points unless Mike Singletary coaches without pants.

Week Nine Picks

2008-10-30T12:35:00.000-04:00

Sorry for getting these up so late, but at least they are in before game time.

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Buffalo: I don't think the Jets will look awful for a third week in a row, especially for such a big divisional game. The Bills should win but this one will be close.

Detroit @ Chicago (-12.5): I won't pick the Lions under any circumstance until they win or lose by three or fewer points. The Bears may come out flat at home after a bye week against a weak opponent but they will wake up.

Jacksonville (-9) @ Cincinnati: Similar situation with the Bengals, I refuse to pick them. The Jaguars need this one bad and shouldn't let Ryan Fitzpatrick get in their way.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (-1): This is a toss up. The Browns are playing like a lot of people thought they would and they should win a big division game at home to get back at .500%

Tampa Bay (-9.5) @ Kansas City: I've seen this movie before. Last week was the time for the Chiefs to win but they couldn't finish the deal. The Bucs will role on the road.

Houston (+4.5) @ Minnesota: I think the Vikings can and should win this game, but there is enough of a chance that the Texans will do well that I will pick them. Andre Johnson has been out of his mind lately and the team is playing well.

Arizona (-3) @ St. Louis: This one has me stumped. I usually pick against the Cardinals on the road but I will break from the trend. The NFC West just needs one team to step up and stake claim to the division.

Green Bay (+4.5) @ Tennessee: Yes I doubt the Titans. I think they will have a slight hangover effect from winning the big Monday nighter and basically clinching the division. The Packers will want this one more.

Miami (+3) @ Denver: Most signs point to the Broncos on this one but I will take the Dolphins. They want to establish the run with Ronnie Brown and then exploit a weak secondary. Joey Porter hopes to keep the defense intact against a high scoring offense.

Week Eight: Buffalo at Miami Recap

2008-10-27T10:37:00.004-04:00

By now I'm sure you have seen or read about the Miami Dolphins big 25-16 victory over the Buffalo Bills. it was a great second half turnaround that led Miami to an upset victory and another divisional win. Here is what caught my attention.

Three Up

Of course the first shout out is going to the namesake of this blog, Ted Ginn. He had his best game as a pro with seven receptions for 175 yards. He and the offense set the tone from the first play, a play action deep route. Then the Dolphins kept picking on corner Terrence McGee, who was either not 100% healthy, or not good enough to cover Ginn. On this day we saw Ted do things that wide receivers are supposed to do. Coming out of college he was an athlete who happened to play receiver. Now he is transitioning into becoming a receiver who is also a great athlete. He was able to use his speed effectively and find the open spots in coverage. Also he took a hit when needed and held on to the ball. You just can't say enough about his performance yesterday, and hopefully it is just a sign of whats to come with him.

It feels like every week Joey Porter belongs in this section. He is having himself a season. Yesterday he had two sacks, the second of which was the huge fourth quarter game changer, where he also caused a fumble that resulted in a safety. On that play he beat pro bowler Jason Peters with a swim move inside and fought of a double team from the left guard. He was unstoppable on that play. He also made probably the second biggest play of the game when Trent Edward inexplicably extended the ball on a quarterback sneak and Porter just ripped it away for the turnover. Also in case you haven't heard, his 10.5 sacks thus far has already tied his career high and he's on pace to finish with 24, which would be an NFL record.

I don't dish out a lot of special teams love here but Brandon Fields deserves mention. He downed two of his four punts inside the five yard line, one of which resulted in the big fourth quarter safety. The other was at the end of the first quarter which switched the field position and set up the Dolphins next drive at the Bills-37 yard line. Also of note, zero of the four punts were returned by special teams ace Roscoe Parrish, who surely would've wanted to please his hometown with his return ability. If you need proof to see how much Fields has improved then here it is. Last year he finished with 10 punts inside the 20 yard line and 6 touchbacks. So far this year he has 11 punts inside the 20 and only 3 touchbacks. With our special teams coverage still needing improvement his performance was key to Miami winning this phase of the game.

Three Down

There won't be much to complain about but in the first half especially there were missed tackles. The defense had a bend but don't break in the first half as they allowed three field goals, but the Bills were able to move the ball effectively and got help from Miami on numerous missed tackles by the linebackers and secondary.

Speaking of getting help, the Dolphins had five defensive penalties in the first half. Philip Merling was offsides on consecutive plays and Jason Ferguson also gave Buffalo a free five yards. Andre Goodman was called for a pass interference but the replays showed that the play probably should have been a no-call. They were able to overcome mistakes and turn things around but you can't make a habit of that.

The Dolphins running game was actually not so hot yesterday. They finished with just 52 yards rushing on 27 attempts. The wildcat formation was able to produce a couple of nice runs and Ricky Williams came through with a great touchdown run near the goal line, but again, we can't make a habit of this. Our offense will need to be more balanced to have continued success.

Look Ahead

Next week the Dolphins will travel to Denver to face the struggling Broncos. They had a nice 3-0 start but have lost three of their last four. They are coming off a bye week and should be well rested but there are some injury concerns. The Dolphins are trying to move to 4-4 before a crucial stretch of three straight home games.

Week Eight: Emptying the Cabinet

2008-10-24T09:17:00.003-04:00

Q&A

I sent some questions earlier in the week to the folks at Buffalo Rumblings and Brian Galliford was kind enough to give me some answers and a Bills perspective.

1. What were the Bills fans' expectations coming into the season and how have they changed due to the impressive 5-1 start?

My expectations, honestly, were a playoff berth - but I've had that same expectations for years and have been let down over and over again. Yes, my expectations have changed after this start, mostly because of the play of Trent Edwards. 12-4 isn't out of the question for this team at this point, especially if we're able to do well within the division; a 12-4 record puts us near the top of not just the AFC, but the league. Lot of football left to be played, though.

2. What is the top area of the team that is improved from last year?

By leaps and bounds, quarterback play. We had consistency at the position in 2006 with J.P. Losman at the helm, but he regressed badly last season, and the Bills ended up switching between Losman and Edwards several times. This is now unequivocally Edwards' team, and it shows up on and off the field. Edwards has this team believing that the sky's the limit; I'm not sure they had the same feelings with Losman at the helm. Edwards could stand to throw a few more touchdowns, but for now, we'll take his leadership, poise and 70% completion rate.

3. What should the Dolphins and their fans be most worried about for this Sunday's match up?

I'd say stopping Lee Evans. Miami's secondary has been an otherwise tough team's downfall, and Evans has destroyed the Dolphins in the past. Most recently, he had two grabs for two scores in a 38-17 win last season at Ralph Wilson Stadium. I'm not sure I'm particularly confident in Will Allen's ability to stop Evans if I'm a Dolphins fan or coach, and the extra defender leaves Buffalo's secondary options open. The Bills have five players with at least 17 receptions on the season, including their two running backs, Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.

4. What scenarios do you think would have to happen to lead to a Bills letdown and a Miami win?

Stick to the basics - control the clock and win the turnover battle. Knocking Edwards around clearly wouldn't hurt, either. But these are generally areas in which the Bills excel. The Dolphins are a tough, underrated team that have caught some tough breaks, but I still think the Bills are going to win this one. It's going to be interesting, though - a 1-15 Dolphins team took us to the wire in Miami last season. Should be a fun one!

Injuries

I'll probably check this out again when the Friday injury report is released and update this section but for now it doesn't look like starting nose tackle Jason Ferguson will play. He hasn't practiced this week and it looks like Paul Soliai and Randy Starks will have to pick up the slack at that position. Cornerback Michael Lehan also tweaked his hamstring and may not be able to play. If he can't go it would leave our secondary situation even thinner than it already is. Both Jason Allen and Tyrone Culver could get significant action for the first time this season. Blessing in disguise, perhaps?

LOLphins

This will become a regular feature but I'll introduce it now by resurrecting a moment from last years game that set back offensive football.

Prediction

I'll probably regret this but as you saw in my picks, I have instilled my faith in the Dolphins. It's actually more about superstition than it is actually having belief in the team. I usually pick them to lose, so I tried to mix it up this week. We'll see how that works out. Also of note, Chris Mortenson continues to pick us, and the always trusty Madden simulation has us cruising to an easy victory. Fantasy is fun. Enjoy the game.

Week Eight Picks

2008-10-22T13:00:00.000-04:00

Last week: 6-8, Ugh the Bronco's ruined my chance at another .500% week
Season to date: 45-55-3, I lost a little more ground and need some big weeks now.

Oakland @ Baltimore (-7): The west coast teams will remain winless when traveling to the east coast for a 1pm game. I'm not sold on the Ravens, but they will move to 4-3.

Arizona @ Carolina (-4): Again, a west coast team traveling east, and the Panthers are a good team. I think they will grab a late touchdown to win this one.

Tampa Bay @ Dallas: I can't find a spread for this anywhere but I think the Cowboys will circle the wagons and get a much needed victory.

Washington (-9) @ Detroit: The Redskins are due for a dominant performance and what better candidate to be on the receiving of that than the Lions.

Buffalo @ Miami (+1): I'm breaking from tradition and picking the Dolphins this week. They will turn things around and take advantage of a Buffalo team looking ahead to a home date with the Jets.

St. Louis @ New England (-7): it is very hard to win three in a row in this league, especially if you are not a top team. The Patriots will roll at home once again.

San Diego (-3) @ New Orleans: This year's London match up is definitely more intriguing then last year's. Both teams can't afford to lose. The Saints haven't won on the road, and that trend will continue.

Kansas City @ New York Jets (-13): The bipolar Jets will probably step it up and look like a playoff team this week, after losing in Oakland the previous one. The Chiefs are still in bad shape.

Atlanta (+9) @ Philadelphia: i don't know why but I think the Falcons will keep playing well. The Eagles will start slow following a bye week but they will win it late.

Cleveland @ Jacksonville (-7): The Jaguars are rested up after a bye while the Browns are playing their second consecutive game on the road. This one should be pretty simple.

Cincinnati @ Houston (-9.5): I can't bring myself to picking a team with Ryan Fitzpatrick as it's quarterback anymore. The Texans benefit from a soft schedule stretch.

New York Giants (+3) @ Pittsburgh: The Giants didn't show up for their last road game but they will get back on track by beating an overrated Steelers team.

Seattle @ San Francisco (-5): I respect Mike Singletary and he will have his players ready to play and take a step in the right direction. The Seahawks meanwhile are falling fast.

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee: I like the Colts in an AFC South upset. They realize it is a huge opportunity to get back in the division race and if they lose, they'll be fighting for a wild card instead.

Week Eight: Early Thoughts BUF at MIA

2008-10-21T09:17:00.005-04:00

BEAST MODE

(buffalonews.com)

This Sunday the Miami Dolphins receive a visit from their AFC East rival Buffalo Bills. The Bills are a team I thought would be pretty good this year, as I picked them to make the playoffs via a wild card spot. I'd be lying if I said that I believed they would be 5-1 coming into this match up. They have played excellent football and remain in pole position in the division. This week is actually the start of three consecutive division games for them where they have a great opportunity to build a lead or keep things interesting.

Miami Offense vs Buffalo Defense

The Dolphins offense sputtered last week against a good Ravens defense. They were not able to run the ball effectively and the wildcat formation didn't produce anything either. Chad Pennington was able to throw the ball and put up good numbers but a pick-six on a third down in the second quarter really set Miami back in the game. The Dolphins also had two first half drives stall in the red zone and had to settle for two field goals. For Miami to be successful they must be able to run the ball, however possible. If they are to continue using the wildcat, then I would like to see two things. First, I think we should use one of the trick plays early, to keep the defense honest. Even if it doesn't work, they will know they can't just sell out for a Ronnie Brown run. Also, I would like to see a change in personnel for the wing back. Ricky Williams hasn't found his groove yet and I think we should use our speediest player, Ted Ginn, in that role.

Buffalo's defense is one of the more underrated units in the NFL. They don't overwhelm you with stats or turnovers but the thing that caught my eye when glancing at their schedule was that they've held their opponent to 16 or less points in four of their six games. They come up with the key stops and will give their offense a chance to win the game. I mentioned the Dolphins red zone opportunities above and I think that area will be the most important in this game. The Dolphins should move the ball but if they settle for field goals, it won't be good enough.

Buffalo Offense vs Miami Defense

The Dolphins defense was not very good this past week. They could not stop the run which was due in large part (literally and figuratively) to the absence of backup nose tackle Paul Soliai and the early injury to starter Jason Ferguson. Randy Starks tried to pick up the slack but he is not a true NT, and probably doesn't see too many reps in practice at that spot. This is the most important position in the 3-4 when it comes to stopping the run. You must clog the middle and occupy blockers to allow the linebackers to roam and make plays. Soliai should be back after serving a team issued one game suspension and Ferguson is listed as day to day. Miami's biggest issue on defense is pass coverage. The secondary has allowed a lot of big pays and key conversions on third and long. They must be bouyed by a good pass rush but it is still their job to make a play, and there hasn't been many made. Another big problem is dropped interceptions. It is very deflating when you are in position to take advantage of a mistake by the offense and instead you give them another chance. We can't have any more of that.

The Bills offense is similar to their defense as they don't jump out at you as exciting or dominant, but they just get the job done. Marshawn Lynch is good running back and if you allow him space he will make you pay big time. It's also important to wrap him up and don't let him use his strength to break tackles and make extra yards. The most worrying thing about their passng game is Lee Evans. It seems every week he is scoring a touchdown on a long bomb. Against Miami's defense that could be a good recipe for success. Ultimately it will come down to the runing game though. If Miami can stop the run, then the defense can be set up to defend the pass and make plays.

I'll have more later this week, hopefully another Q&A with a blogger.

Week Seven Recap: Ravens at Dolphins

2008-10-17T09:07:00.007-04:00

(sun-sentinel.com)

That was a stinker. Miami just never got in sync in this game and Baltimore took advantage. A pick-six in the second quarter gave the Ravens the lead and the Dolphins were playing catchup the rest of the afternoon. Here is a little three up, three down on Miami's performance.

Three Up

Ted Ginn, Jr. was inserted on kickoff returns and did a nice job. He had a couple nice ones early in the game and then the Ravnes started doing shorter pooch kicks, to limit his TD potential. He is clearly a better option than Davone Bess. He also caught four passes for 48 yards as a receiver.
Yeremiah Bell is the only good thing in the Dolphins secondary these days. He led the team with eight tackles (which probably isn't a good thing when your safety is a leading tackler) and also had a crucial forced fumble that temporarily kept us in the game. He is looking like the playmaker we came to know in 2006. Too bad he doesn't have much help back there.
Joey Porter turned in another good pass rushing performance. He recorded two more sacks, giving him eight and a half on the season thus far. We needed a big year from him to help our young defense and he is delivering.

Three Down

The Red Zone Offense and Defense was poor yesterday. Coming into the game, the Dolphins had scored 15 touchdowns and only attempted 4 field goals. In the first half, twice they had the ball inside the 15 yard line and settled for two short field goals. On defense, Miami allowed a huge red zone touchdown on third and nine from the eleven yard line right before the half. Also in the fourth quarter they allowed a rushing touchdown allowing the lead to get to 14 instead of 10, effectively ending the game. In our four trips, we scored 13 points. In their three trips, they scored 17 points. Unacceptable.
The Wildcat Formation was stopped for this first time. I'll give credit to the Ravens defense, who said they would not allow that to beat them, but I must say I don't think the formation was used properly. Early in the game, Ronnie Brown kept it most of the time and the Ravens were selling out for the inside runs. They maintained their gap responsibility and tackled well to shut it down. Last week in Houston we used the trick plays before the normal Ronnie runs to keep the defense honest. This week it just seemed like they expected Ronnie to bail them out. It didn't work.
The Pass Defense continues to struggle. I know the defense didn't stop the run well, which makes it tougher to defend the pass, but this group doesn't make plays and allows big third down conversion for opposng offenses. When you get down to it, the pass defense only seems to do well when we stop the run and get a good pass rush. When that happens, anybody can play good pass defense. Yeremiah Bell and Will Allen are the only solid players and even they can improve. The front office did nothing to improve this area in the offseason and we are paying for it now. It will need to be a high priority this spring.

Random Thoughts

Was it really necessary to give Cam Cameron a gatorade bath. First of all, you just beat a now 2-4 team. Also, it's not like offensive ingenuity was needed. They ran the ball well and that set up everything else.
Ricky Williams received a lot of local hype coming into this year but he hasn't found his stride. He had a good game in New England (who didn't?) but since has struggled to make big runs and fit with the offense. He is getting less carries, and I wouldn't be surprised if the wildcat formation had a new wing back this week.
The nose tackle situation really hurt Miami yesterday. Backup Paul Soliai was suspended and starter Jason Ferguson was injured early and didn't return. He is the key man for our run defense and his absence was notable. Randy Starks has been playing well but he is not a 3-4 NT and that showed on Sunday.
I can't get mad at Chad Pennington's pick-six. We were in the sixth game and that was his first real bad game changing decision. It put us in a bad spot and we didn't recover. He is still the right man for this team though.
I don't know what's in the water down here but opposing punters have killed the Dolphins. This time it was Sam Koch who averaged 59 yards for three punts. It is very deflating when you get field position that is 20 or so yards worse than you thought it'd be.

That's about it for now. Up this week is a tough matchup with the Buffalo Bills at home.

Week Seven Picks

2008-10-13T13:17:00.005-04:00

Last week: 7-7 (In this economy, not losing, is winning!)
Season to date: 39-47-3

San Diego (+1) @ Buffalo: San Diego is on a mission now and they realize they can't afford to lose. I usually like the Bills at home, but not this week.

New Orleans (+3) @ Carolina: This should be a close one. The Saints seem to have been hit or miss this year but I'll take Drew Brees in this one.

Minnesota @ Chicago (-3): Both teams played the Lions recently. One team crushed them and the other squeaked out a 12-10 victory. I'm taking the Bears.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (+9.5): I keep picking the Bengals and I'm not sure why. Hopefully they get up for this division game at home and keep it close.

Tennessee (-9) @ Kansas City: The Titans will remain undefeated.

Baltimore (+3) @ Miami: I have been awful picking Dolphins games this year. I think they could and probably should win at home, but the Ravens remember last year and will want to atone.

San Francisco (+10.5) @ New York Giants: We've seen too many upsets for me to be picking teams giving up a lot of points. The 49ers are good enough to keep this close.

Dallas (-7) @ St. Louis: I'm not too confident but I think the Cowboys will overcome all the distractions to beat a stingy Rams team.

Detroit @ Houston (-9.5): Houston will win, but it will be close.

Indianapolis (-1) @ Green Bay: The Colts have found themselves and even with the loss of Joseph Addai, I like them to win this one.

New York Jets @ Oakland (+3) : I don't know why but I'll take the Raiders. The Jets didn't have a good trip out west earlier in the year, and they will do the same this week.

Cleveland (+9) @ Washington: The Redskins should win this one, but the Browns are coming off a nice win and finally feel good about themselves.

Seattle (+10.5) @ Tampa Bay: I do like the Bucs, especially at home, but I think the Seahawks are do to play well and keep this close.

Denver (+3) @ New England: The Patriots reputation and the recent struggles of the Broncos have influenced this line, but I believe the Broncos are a better team and will prove it.

Week Six Picks

2008-10-06T16:04:00.006-04:00

Last Week: 7-5-2 I hate those three point spreads that lead to many ties, but I'll take being over .500% for a second consecutive week.

Season to Date: 32-40-3 Slowly becoming respectable

Chicago (-3) @ Atlanta: I like what Atlanta has done, but the Bears are quietly playing real well and know that the NFC North can be theirs. They should take care of business.

Oakland @ New Orleans (-7.5): I'm always on the Saints bandwagon and they usually let me down. They are at home again and should have a sense of urgency. I'm not too confident though.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-1): This is a crucial NFC South battle early in the year. Both teams have surprised me but I like the Bucs to play well on their home field.

St. Louis (+13.5) @ Washington: I will probably regret this but I feel this is a trap game for the Redskins. They are coming off two huge divisional battles and the Rams are coming off a bye with a new coach. The Redskins will avoid total embarrassment but I don't think they will cover.

Cincinnati (+6) @ New York Jets: This is another one I may smack myself for later but I just feel the Bengals are ready to win and the Jets will continue their inconsistent play.

Detroit @ Minnesota (-13.5): The Vikings must start to play better if they want to keep up with the Bears. That starts with a smooth victory over the hapless Lions.

Miami @ Houston (-3): If I was an actual gambler, I would go nowhere near this game. We don't know if the Dolphins are for real and we don't know if the Texans are that bad. This one can go anywhere.

Baltimore @ Indianapolis (-4): Indianapolis just has to play better at some point. Plus they are 0-2 in their new building this year and they desperately want to please the fans. The Ravens are improved but don't have the offense rolling yet.

Jacksonville @ Denver (-3.5): I'm disappointed in the Jags, as I picked them to win the AFC South. This is a great opportunity for them to step up and announce themselves again but I just don't think they will keep pace with the Denver offense.

Dallas @ Arizona (+5): The Cardinals have played extremely well at home and they should be fired up for America's team. I'm not sure if they get the win but this should be a close game.

Philadelphia (-4.5) @ San Francisco: I don't know what to think about this one. I'll go with the best division in football, the NFC East.

Green Bay @ Seattle (-1): I don't know what happened to either of these teams. I thought they would both be better than where they are at now. I'll go with the home team.

New England (+6) @ San Diego: I know the Chargers are better than what they have shown and they will be fired up for the Patriots but I also think the Patriots are quietly very confident for this one. It should be a tight affair.

New York Giants @ Cleveland (+9): The Browns are at home for a prime time game and they just have to play well at some point. The boost of Donte' Stallworth will also help make this a good game.

Getting To Know the San Diego Chargers

2008-10-01T10:40:00.008-04:00

I exchanged a Q&A with a Loren of bolttalk.com to get a feel for what the fans of San Diego feel about their Chargers. I also answered some of his questions about the Dolphins, which you can read here.

(1) I think it's pretty safe to say Chargers fans were expecting a Super Bowl run this year, ever since the end of last season. How has that opinion changed at all by the events of the first four weeks of this season?

LC: I still believe this is the most talented team in the NFL and even with the injuries and playing down to teams like the Raiders my expectations and opinion haven't really changed. We went through sometime like this last year when we started 1-4 and people were screaming we wouldn't make the playoffs. I'm basically running with the assumption that Norv Turner teams start slow but finish strong. I have still seen the talent level this team has defensively over the last two weeks and offensively over the first three weeks. This team isn't too far away from putting it all together and when it does no team in the NFL can match up.

I would agree for the most part, but I don't know about the "no team the NFL can match up." When operating at 100% efficiency I would definitely put the Chargers in the top tier of teams, but not by themselves.

(2) What's the deal with Ladainian Tomlinson? Is he still the fantasy and reality star that will just keep scoring touchdowns and terrorizing opposing defenses and fantasy owners or is he finally starting to slow down and is the nagging injury a real cause for concern?

LC: I do believe the injury is causing problems. LT is a back that relies on his ability to cut numerous times in a small area to make defenders miss. A turf toe would prevent him from doing that and furthermore every team seems to want to key on LT and force Rivers to beat them - a big mistake and one numerous teams have paid for already. He probably is slowing down somewhat; lets face it, he's been the workhorse back of the Chargers for years and wear-and-tear has got to be accumulating on him. But I don't believe he's anything but the best all around back in the NFL and I don't believe any fantasy owner or NFL defense should take him lightly.

I pretty much agree here. I would still put LT at the top of the list of RB's I'd least like to face, but he would be ranked below the previous versions of LT, namely 2005 and 2006

(3) How has the defense changed since Shawn Merriman has been out of action? From the outside looking in I would think it would still be one of the better units, but they have given up a lot of points and the most passing yards so far this season.

LC: Losing Merriman hurts the defense, no questions. He was the one player that every offensive player focused on every single down. The Chargers don't have a guy like that other then him. It means that the team has had to rotate their other star OLB, Shaun Phillips, around to get the best matchup since most teams now double team him. Furthermore we still haven't found the one replacement for Merriman and have had to rotate a bit between Tucker/Harris/Applewhite. As to the yards and points, that's a two part issue. Yes Merriman's loss is causing some of that but for the first two games we played fairly dynamic offenses and did little in the way of disguising blitzes or coverages. As such we'd rush four guys regularly, play vanilla coverages and teams would pick us apart. We've gotten better lately but still its been a problem and until it gets solved we will continue to give up yards and points.

I wouldn't call Carolina a dynamic offense, but I understand the argument here. At this point in time, their sub par play on defense is a trend, if it continues throughout the middle of the season though, then it becomes a problem.

(4) What do you think are the keys to the game for the Chargers and conversely what should the Dolphins focus on doing?

LC: Chargers have got to key on Ronnie Brown as much as possible and must get ahead to the point that even that Wild Cat formation won't be of any use to them because they'll be so far behind. The Chargers also have to play as tight as possible coverage wise and realize that on passing downs they're facing a QB without much arm, so they have to be ready for those short passes.
Dolphins, they need to score points, as many as possible, and keep the Chargers offense off the field as much as possible. Basically a similar game plan to what you did against New England.

I'd say pretty much the same thing.

(5) What is your prediction for the game?

LC: 34-13 Chargers

As you could see on their site, my prediction is slightly less of a beat down by the Chargers. It should be a good game and I think San Diego will put it away late, but this scoreline will be a tad off.

Week Five (Chargers @ Dolphins): Early Thoughts

2008-09-29T15:00:00.006-04:00

The San Diego Chargers are coming to Miami and it shapes up to be a good game, maybe. I'm not quite sure what to think of the Chargers. I picked them to go to the Super Bowl but then they lose their first two games and Shawn Merriman goes down for the season. They have bounced back reasonably well beating the Jets and Raiders and now stand at 2-2. If it weren't for a last gasp TD in week one, and a blown call in week two, then they would be 4-0. But, they also just sleepwalked their way into Oakland and needed a big second half to overcome a 15-0 deficit. I think this game could go in any number of directions.

Scenario One: San Diego come ins ready to play and shows why they are a year or two ahead of Miami. They have a balanced offense and can exploit the weaknesses in our defense. They also have had time to prepare for our Wildcat formation and will not be fooled. Their defense also thrives on turnovers and if we let them make plays then it could be a long day for us in Miami.

Scenario Two: Any combination of Miami playing well and San Diego struggling to start the game. It is an early kickoff and it wouldn't surprise me to see Miami jump out in front early. Ultimately though, the Chargers will make enough plays to overcome the deficit and continue their winning streak.

Scenario Three: San Diego comes out flat and Miami totally takes advantage. If this is the case it will probably look like the New England game but I don't think the score would be as convincing. The Chargers will put up a fight and won't go down easy.

I know I didn't go into much actual football breakdowns but I will as the week goes on. I also hope to exchange a Q&A with a Chargers blogger to get more info on how they feel about their team and this game. As for right now I would say Scenario One is the most likely, probably at around 50%. The other two I would peg at 25% each, meaning I think we would win this game one out of every four times.

Week Five Picks

2008-09-28T21:17:00.006-04:00

Last Week: 9-4
Season to Date: 25-34-1

Tennessee @ Baltimore (+3): The ravens defense will slow down the Titans running attack and make a late play to win the game.

Seattle @ New York Giants (-7): This should be a close game, but a late score will cover for the G-men.

Washington (+5.5) @ Philadelphia: The Redskins are on a roll and are looking for back to back road wins in the division. The Eagles will probably win this one, but it should be a real close game.

San Diego (-6.5) @ Miami: The Chargers are on a mission since the Hochuli disaster. I suppose they may be looking ahead to the Patriots but the Dolphins aren't sneaking up on anybody anymore.

Chicago (-3) @ Detroit: The first game of the post-Millen era shoudln't look too much different than what went on during the Millen reign. The Bears know they need to stay consistent and win in the division.

Atlanta @ Green Bay (-7): I may be changing this pick depending on what happens with Aaron Rodgers, but even if he's out the Falcons should have a tough time in Lambeau.

Indianapolis (-3) @ Houston: This is a game of true desperation, neither team can afford to lose. I'll take Manning over Schaub.

Kansas City @ Carolina (-9.5): It was nice for the Chiefs to show up at home against a division rival. Going on the road is another story. The Panthers are saving John Fox's job so far.

Tampa Bay @ Denver (-3): The Broncos never showed up in Kansas City. With the Chargers resurgence they know they need to get back on track.

Buffalo @ Arizona (-1): Arizona's east coast trip didn't go well, but they will take out their frustration on an east division opponent in their building. The Bills undefeated run will end.

New England (-3) @ San Francisco: This game should tell us a lot about each team. The 49ers can make a real statement, but they won't.

Cincinnati @ Dallas: I can't find a spread anywhere yet for this game. I think Dallas wins big.

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville (-4): The Jags play well at home and their defense will be up to the task. The Steelers haven't been too impressive.

Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3): The NFC South has turned out better than I thought and their success will continue here with the Saints outscoring Adrian Peterson.

Week Four Picks

2008-09-25T10:06:00.004-04:00

Note: I didn't have a recap of the week three ass pounding the Dolphins gave the Patriots because the early part of this week I was very busy and then sick. I think you have probably heard enough of it by now so I'll just get to the picks and hope the Dolphins can deliver a few more performances like that.

Last Week: 5-11
Season to Date: 16-30-1

Okay, I'm going to stop letting Matt Millen make my picks for me.

Atlanta @ Carolina (-7)
Denver (-9.5) @ Kansas City
San Francisco @ New Orleans (-5.5)
Arizona @ New York Jets (-1)
Minnesota @ Tennessee (-3)
Green Bay (+1) @ Tampa Bay
Houston (+9) @ Jacksonville
Cleveland (+3.5) @ Cincinnati
San Diego (-9) @ Oakland
Buffalo (-9) @ St. Louis
Washington (+11) @ Dallas
Philadelphia (-3) @ Chicago
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)

Week Three Picks

2008-09-16T11:20:00.000-04:00

Last Week: 5-9-1 (before MNF)
Season to date: 11-19-1 (before MNF)

Kansas City @ Atlanta (-5)
Arizona @ Washington (-3)
Houston (+5) @ Tennessee
Oakland @ Buffalo (-9.5)
Tampa Bay @ Chicago (-3)
Carolina (+3.5) @ Minnesota
Cincinnati (+13.5) @ New York Giants
Miami @ New England (-12.5)
New Orleans (+5.5) @ Denver
Detroit @ San Francisco (-4)
St. Louis (+10) @ Seattle
Cleveland (+2.5) @ Baltimore
Pittsburgh (+3) @ Philadelphia
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-5.5)
Dallas @ Green Bay (+3)
New York Jets (+9) @ San Diego Chargers

Week Three: Keys to the Game

2008-09-16T09:26:00.004-04:00

Coming off an embarrassing blowout loss the Dolphins will go on the road again, this time to division and conference power, New England. This is not exactly the type of game that I would ask when trying to rebound from two tough defeats in the first couple weeks of this season. Nonetheless, the schedule is what it is, and Miami will have to find a way to improve, play better, and compete. These should be the keys to Sunday's matchup

1. Start Well: Right now I'm trying to think of the last time the Dolphins started a game well. I'm going to have to look it up. We haven't had a lead at any point this year and once again have had poor first quarters, being outscored 21-0 so far. This team must get ahead early which will give them confidence to keep playing well and stay ahead. Okay I looked it up, the last time the Dolphins had a lead of seven or more points in the first half was in week five of last season against Houston. The last time we scored a touchdown on our opening drive was in week thirteen of the 2006 season. Wow.

2. Running Game: Week one we didn't run the ball enough. Week two we ran it some more but not well enough. Hopefully the next step will be running it a lot and doing a good job at it. We need to control the clock and churn out first downs. The blame for the below average running game falls on both the offensive line and the running backs. The line must give the backs a better opportunity for positive yards and perhaps a big play. I would run behind Jake Long and the left side. The running backs also must do a better job of getting all the yardage they can and avoiding negative plays. Too many times I have seen rushes for losses, setting up the team in hard to convert third down situations.

3. Defensive Backs: I've gone over several times about the abysmal play of our passing defense. The main problem is that our defenders don't do a good job of playing the ball, so even if they cover a receiver very well, if the ball comes that way, it's likely to be a reception. They must learn to break up passes any way possible. Bat the ball away, make a big hit as the ball arrives, but please don't stand next to a guy and watch him catch the ball. I'll say this again, Jason Allen needs to start in place of Chris Crocker.

4. Penalties: Looking at the boxscore, we only ended up with six penalties but if you remember correctly, there were several more that were declined as well. The most concerning point about the infractions is when they occurred. On an Arizona missed field goal, we had twelve men on the field. On that drive kept alive, they scored a touchdown. That's a seven point difference. On a third and goal for the Cardinals we made a sack but committed a facemask violation. They scored another touchdown afterwards. That's a four point difference (if they make the field goal). In this game it didn't matter much because we were dominated in all facets of the game. But, in close games, these kinds of penalties can you lose you a game, all by themselves. That can't happen.

Week Two Recap: Dolphins vs Cardinals

2008-09-15T11:20:00.004-04:00

This was one of the worst NFL performances I've ever seen from a secondary. The defensive backs looked atrocious and like they didn't belong in the league. Granted they were playing against the best 1-2 wide receiver tandem in the league with another experienced veteran quarterback distributing the ball, but that is not an excuse for getting as torched as they did yesterday.

The Cardinals first play from scrimmage was a 79 yard touchdown pass, where Anquan Boldin escaped 10 yards past our secondary made a catch and ran free for the final 50 or so yards. On the next drive Kurt Warner threw one up for Larry Fitzgerald near the sideline and Will Allen failed to prevent the reception or make the tackle. Chris Crocker failed to make the tackle as well. Will Allen eventually chased him down but not before a total of 75 yards setting up first ad goal.

Kurt Warner continued to find open receivers or just throw into coverage knowing the Miami DB's wouldn't make plays on the ball. He started 9/9 and finished 19/24 with 361 yards and 3 touchdowns. Yes, that is good for a PERFECT quarterback rating (158.3).

I will now take time to pull a Cam Cameron, and just give the Cardinals credit for making the plays they needed to make to win. But let's be honest, the Dolphins (mainly the secondary) was a total embarrassment on Sunday. Adjustments need to be made. There is no way Chris Crocker should be a starting safety for an NFL team. I never thought I'd be saying this, but Jason Allen needs to be the starter or I will go ballistic. I'd also recommend Michael Lehan start in place of Andre Goodman, but I know Lehan is still working his way back from an injury so I just don't know if he is ready.

About the offense, well, it sucked. They were never threatening. They could not establish the run and that pretty much set back everything. This team needs to play from ahead and be able to run the football. We haven't seen anything close to a good running game the first two weeks of this season. I don't know the solution is anything more than just every cog in the machine do a little bit better. Each offensive linemen needs to do a bit better job of blocking and both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams need to finish runs and eliminate negative plays.

Chad Henne came in the game in the fourth quarter and looked very solid. He led the only meaningful drive and it ended with a touchdown. Those of you arguing he should be the starter, please shut up. This was a nice exercise for him but nothing more. Chad Pennington is the quarterback we invested in and he needs to run the offense so Henne can watch and learn. If you think the offense's problems are quarterback-related then you are mistaken.

But, I do really like Henne and he will probably be the starter before the season is over. You can't help but be encouraged by seeing the strong arm and the confidence in him. For now, that is the only bright spot of the team.

My thoughts on the Dolphins performance today...

2008-09-14T18:33:00.002-04:00

Here it is, except when he says "second half" replace it with "entire game."

Getting To Know the Arizona Cardinals

2008-09-10T14:15:00.008-04:00

To be honest, I don't know much about the Arizona Cardinals other than the outstanding wide receiver tandem of Fitzgerald and Boldin and the fact that Matt Leinart likes to party. To learn more I sought out Cardinals bloggers and came across Eli Wahlstrom of Voice of the Cardinals. We agreed to exchange a Q&A about each others team in advance of the Sunday matchup. You can find my answers to his Dolphins questions on his site shortly. Below are the questions I asked about the Cardinals and the answers Eli provided.

What are the expectations for Arizona this year? They always seem to be a trendy pick to make the playoffs. Are fans buying that this year?

Every season is suppose to be the Cardinals season. In my opinion this year looks better than any other year. Not because the Cardinals are so great but because the rest of the division including Seattle looks so bad. Once again we could see 8-8 or 9-7 win the NFC West and I think the Cardinals will do just that.

Outsiders always talk about Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Who are some under the radar stars for the Cardinals that the Dolphins should keep an eye on?

Rookie RB Tim Hightower has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals. He scored a touchdown in the first game against the 49ers and looked very good in the preseason. On defense Travis Laboy is a guy that really puts pressure on quarterbacks. He had 2 sacks and a forced fumble against San Francisco and I expect him to make things tough on Jake Long and the Dolphins offensive line.

What is the biggest weakness of the team?

The biggest weakness is still the offensive line. Kurt Warner is a sitting duck in the pocket, any team that has a good pass rush is really going to cause some problems for the Cardinals offense.

What's the deal with the Leinart/Warner situation? Are fans happy, angry, ambiguous or what about the decision to go with Kurt Warner as the starter?

It's kind of mixed emotions, all Cardinals fans want Leinart to work out here in Arizona, But I think the majority of fans are happy with the decision to start the better quarterback which is Kurt Warner. It's nice to know that if Kurt does get hurt we have a quarterback that is capable to fill in and still lead this team to the playoffs.

Finally, what's your prediction for game?

I don't think the Dolphins can keep up with the Cardinals offense. My prediction is 31-17 Cardinals

My Thoughts

This is the second time I've heard Tim Hightower's name mentioned. I haven't seen him but if he or Edgerrin James has any kind of success then we can be in trouble. We will have enough trouble stopping the passing game. If they can run effectively then it will be a very long day.

The fact that their offensive line is a weakness is good news for us. We have shown ability to rush the passer and if Warner really is a sitting duck then we should get a good amount of QB pressures, sacks and hopefully a dumb interception or two.

Week Two Picks

2008-09-10T10:06:00.000-04:00

Last Week: 6-10, So I have picked up right where I left off last year.

Oakland @ Kansas City (-3.5)
Green Bay (-3) @ Detroit
Tennessee (+1) @ Cincinnati
Chicago @ Carolina (-3)
Buffalo (+6) @ Jacksonville
New Orleans (+1) @ Washington
Indianapolis (-1) @ Minnesota
New York Giants @ St. Louis (+9)
San Francisco @ Seattle (-9)
Atlanta (+9) @ Tampa Bay
Miami @ Arizona (-7)
New England @ New York Jets (-1)
Baltimore @ Houston (-4.5)
San Diego (-1) @ Denver
Pittsburgh (-6) @ Cleveland
Philadelphia @ Dallas (-7)

Week Two: Early Thoughts

2008-09-08T16:19:00.004-04:00

The next game on the slate for Miami is a road affair with the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona has seemed to be a trendy pick the last several years to make the next step and advance to the playoffs. That hasn't happened yet but last year they did go 8-8 and played well at home. This game will be no easy task.

Keys to the Game

Eliminate Silly Errors: I talked about it in the week one recap, Miami must eliminate self inflicted wounds such as, bad kicks, penalties, wasted timeouts. In week one it is almost to be expected that there would be some "first game jitters" but now they must be eliminated. When they occurred at home, we still had a chance to win the ballgame. On the road, committing those mistakes is the easiest way to ensure you lose the game.
Commitment to the Running Game: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams need more touches. Both of those guys need to be force-fed the ball to get in the flow of the game. Even if we only use one of them primarily, we must run the ball more than 16 times. I would suggest removing Patrick Cobbs as the 3rd down back and having whoever isn't the 1st-2nd down back, will be the 3rd down back.
Secondary Must Make Plays: The pass rush will not always get to the quarterback. The guys in coverage must find a way to keep receivers covered and more importantly, when the ball is in the air, make sure that the pass is incomplete or intercepted. It is fundamental, simply covering a man is not good enough in this league. Receivers (and Arizona has great ones) will fight for the ball and you must ensure they don't get it.
Start Well: The Dolphins were always tied or trailing in week one. I'm not saying the team can't come back in a game (it's actually obvious they can, based on the Jets game) but for a young team that is learning how to win, it is much easier when you get ahead and start feeling the confidence. This is especially true on the road, where a good start can quite the crowd and make the home team feel the pressure.

Week One Recap: Jets vs Dolphins

2008-09-08T09:39:00.004-04:00

I'm not very good at writing game recaps because I could literally talk for hours about any single game but instead I have to pare it down into a short piece of writing. There is lots to say about this first game of the year so I'll just get straight to the rambling.

Man was that tough. No matter what happens in a game, if you are just one touchdown away from winning, with time running down and the ball nearing the goal line, only to come up one play short, it is very frustrating and depressing. We saw similar situations last season an this just seems like the next in line of "how many different ways can you lose a close game?" I try to convince myself that at the end of the day, this seasons win-loss record is not as significant as the overall team play and improvement.

When you think about it, for the Dolphins to make as many mistakes as they did, and struggle (on offense especially) for three-plus quarters, and still be one play away from victory is encouraging. Just off the top of my head here is a list of mistakes.

9 yard punt: Pathetic, I could have come in and at least kicked it 10 yards
Kickoff out of bounds: Unacceptable
Penalties that negated first downs: There were at least two
Timeouts needed in 3rd quarter: We could have used them on our final drive
Defense on Favre's 22-yard hail mary: Ridiculous, I don't care if he was open, the ball was in the air long enough for a spectator to come down from the upper deck and call a fair catch.

On a broader scale here are my areas of concern

Run defense: It wasn't as bad as last year, and as the game went on they got better, but at times the Jets ran the ball with ease.
Running game: Weren't we supposed to be the grind it out tough team? Ronnie and Ricky combined for only 16 carries. They struggled but both of those guys usually get better as the game goes along. We need more commitment to the ground game
Offensive execution: Everything just looked a half a second behind. Maybe the speed of the game jump from preseason to regular season was a difficult one, or maybe it was the high temperatures and humidity. Whatever it was, it needs to be adjusted to. Phil Simms said it best, when we were on offense it looked like a lot of work to move the ball. Nothing came easy.

Here are some positives

Front seven: For once we saw a Miami defense that got better as the game went along. In the 4th quarter when Miami needed the ball back to have a chance, the defense did it's job. The Jets went three and out on it's final three possessions (minus the final kneel down). When you look at it, the secondary is more to blame for the scoring allowed. The front seven did look new and improved.
Tight ends: Anthony Fasano looked every bit of Jason Whitten-lite. He had eight catches and a TD and just looked like the safety valve for Pennington and the offense. A tight end can be a quarterback's best friend and he sure was on this day. I also have to give credit to David Martin, who I'm usually critical of. He didn't have any drops and made a few big catches, including the difficult touchdown in the 4th quarter.
Overall they just looked more like a capable professional football team than they did at the end of last year. Yes there is still a talent differential, yes they are still a year away, but this team has tough players that are capable of playing well and winning.

The true test of this new regime and coaching staff is what happens next week. I was going to write a post before the game about how important game one is. The last two years we lost in week one in games that we could have, and maybe should have won. This year has started in similar fashion. The key is to make the adjustments and move on. In 2006 and 2007, we had a hangover effect and we fell the next week. We must move on and fight another battle. Arizona plays well at home and it will be a tough challenge to go and beat them at their place. More on this game throughout the week.

Week One Picks

2008-09-03T14:29:00.004-04:00

I am too lazy to go in the archive and retrieve my final record from last year. It was below.500% and not very good. This year will be different. My picks in bold

Washington @ New York Giants (-4)
Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-3)
St. Louis @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
New York Jets @ Miami (+3)
Kansas City @ New England (-16.5)
Houston @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)
Cincinnati (-1) @ Baltimore
Detroit (-3) @ Atlanta
Seattle (+1) @ Buffalo
Jacksonville (-3) @ Tennessee
Dallas (-5.5) @ Cleveland
Carolina (+9.5) @ San Diego
Arizona @ San Francisco (+3)
Chicago @ Indianapolis (-9.5)
Minnesota (+3) @ Green Bay
Denver @ Oakland (+3)

2008 NFL Season Predictions

2008-09-03T10:00:00.000-04:00

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Desean Jackson. I really wanted to pick one of the running backs that were taken in the first round of the draft but I just don't feel that any of them will get enough carries as a feature back to put up great stats. Jackson on the other hand will be a starting receiver and the Eagles really need him now more than ever, due to the injury of Kevin Curtis. He will probably have the most highlight-reel plays, especially in the return game, which gives him a slight edge. Watch out for Jonathan Stewart.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jerod Mayo. Yes, it pains me, but the Patriots needed some youth in their linebacking corps and Mayo is a great fit. In that system the linebackers are counted on to make plays and he should make plenty. He will also get great exposure due to playing for New England. Watch out for Leodis McKelvin and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Offensive Player of the Year: See MVP Award

Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Allen. I'll go with a fairly safe pick. He is one of the game's best pass rushers and he goes from a bad team to an average team with an already solid defense. I'm not sure how high his sack total will be, but he should win this award by being the best player on a great defense. Watch out for Antonio Cromartie.

Most Valuable Player: Tom Brady. I don't think he will match the 50 touchdowns total from a year ago. But he is still the MVP.

Now on to part two, the division and wild card winners

AFC

East: New England Patriots. This is the easiest pick. No matter how good the Jets, Bills and Dolphins could be, they just can't challenge the dynasty of this division. The only way I see the Patriots not getting the job done is if Tom Brady is hurt and misses time.
North: Pittsburgh Steelers. This division should be close and I don't think the division winner will have more than 10 wins, but Pittsburgh will get it done. Cincinnati and Baltimore should be better but not good enough and Cleveland will not match last years success.
South: Jacksonville Jaguars. Mark this down as the first bold prediction. The Colts have won 12 or more games in five consecutive years, but this is the year to get them. I just feel that it is the Jaguars time to finally win the division. The Titans and Texans should be good, but I don't think this division will produce three playoff teams again.
West: San Diego Chargers. They are loaded with talent and even without Shawn Merriman they should win this division with ease. The Broncos are still mired in mediocrity and the Raiders and Chiefs are simply not ready to challenge for a playoff spot.
Wild Cards: Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills. The Colts are still a good team and should be the number five seed easily and possibly have a better record than one or more division winners. The Bills will grab the sixth playoff spot, probably in a tiebreaker. Their schedule isn't too difficult and last year they learned how to win. The big game for them will be hosting Cleveland in week eleven.

NFC

East: Dallas Cowboys. Yes any team can win it. These four teams could finish in any order and it wouldn't be too surprising. I'm going with Dallas though because they have done it before, and have the most talent in the division. I don't think they will reach 13 wins again, but they should edge out the other three for another division title. Will they win a playoff game though?
North: Minnesota Vikings. I don't like how everyone is dismissing the Packers just because Favre is gone and Aaron Rodgers is the guy, They have a great defense and should not drop off much. I do think the Vikings will win it though. They may have the best defense and their offense should be good enough with the solid play of Adrian Peterson
South: New Orleans Saints. This division has been unpredictable in recent years but this is the one when it should go true to form. The Saints are the most talented team. They shot themselves in the foot last year by starting out 0-4. As long as they get out of the gates okay, they should cruise in this division.
West: Seattle Seahawks. Seattle has been one of the more quiet divisional dynasties in recent memory. They have made the playoffs five straight years and won four division titles during that time. It doesn't stop this year. They have an underrated defense and should have an improved running game.
Wild Cards: Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. I hate doing this but I think it will be another year with three playoff teams from the NFC East. Philly should be much improved and if they stay healthy, are good enough for a Super Bowl run. The Giants will have a much harder time than last year but I don't buy that they have fallen out of the playoff ranks.

Super Bowl XLIII

Dallas Cowboys defeat San Diego Chargers. Your guess is as good as mine. I find it hard to believe the Cowboys will continue to struggle in the playoffs. This just seems like their year to me. They have a great mix of proven players and exciting young guys.

Final Roster Set

2008-09-01T10:48:00.005-04:00

I've been hesitant to make this post because the organization has showed it will be continually making moves to improve the roster even though most teams would just settle on a 53-man squad and be done with it. But I can't wait forever, I'll discuss all of the moves now.

First, the team traded Josh McCown to the Carolina Panthers on Friday for an undisclosed draft pick (believed to be a 2009 7th-rounder). This move proves two points in my opinion. First, the team must feel that Chad Henne is an able backup and can be a solid quarterback, if needed to play in relief of Chad Pennington. Also, I believe the team just can't give up on John Beck. At this point he does look like a longshot to ever become a dependable player, but there is still some upside. McCown on the other hand, did not have much growing potential. I like this move and it is what I would have done. The fact that we got a draft pick, even though it's a minuscule asset, is a plus.

On Saturday the team cut 17 players to get down to the 53-player roster limit. You can get the full list here. None of these moves came as a real surprise. Most of the players released were ones who never had a great shot to make the team.

The team watched the waiver wire and on Sunday were awarded with three new players they made claims on. Andy Alleman (Center) was a third round pick in this years draft for the Saints but for whatever reason did not make their team. I like this pickup because our offensive line has very questionable depth and it needs all the talent it can get. PFT is saying that he was a popular guy and that six other teams made a claim for him. Nate Garner (Tackle) was a seventh round pick of the Jets this year but did not make the team. He is now a Dolphin. Again, we need help on the line. I approve. The last player claimed was Brandon London, a wide receiver formerly of the Giants. He was an undrafted free agent who made their practice squad last year but not this year. He takes the place of Anthony Armstrong as the 6th receiver (more on that later) on the team.

Now let's take a look at the 53-man roster and depth chart (according to the team's website)

OFFENSE
QB: Chad Pennigton, Chad Henne, John Beck
RB: Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, Patrick Cobbs, Jalen Parmele
FB: Boomer Grigsby
TE: Anthony Fasano, David Martin, Sean Ryan
WR1: Ted Ginn, Ernest Wilford, Brandon London
WR2: Derek Hagan, Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess
LT: Jake Long, Ikechuku Ndukwe
LG: Justin Smiley, Shawn Murphy
C: Samson Satele, Andy Alleman
RG: Donald Thomas
RT: Vernon Carey, Nate Garner

DEFENSE
LE: Kendall Langford, Randy Starks, Rodrique Wright
NT: Jason Ferguson, Paul Soliai
RE: Vonnie Holliday, Phillip Merling, Lionel Dotson
OLB: Matt Roth, Quentin Moses
ILB: Channing Crowder
ILB: Akin Ayodele, Reggie Torbor
OLB: Joey Porter, Charlie Anderson
LCB: Will Allen, Michael Lehan, Joey Thomas
RCB: Andre Goodman, Nathan Jones
SS: Yeremiah Bell, Renaldo Hill
FS: Chris Crocker, Jason Allen

SPECIAL TEAMS
K: Dan Carpenter
P: Brandon Fields
LS: John Denney

Notes:

The six receivers surprise me. For a team that should depend on the running game, I thought they would go with the normal count of five. I don't imagine we will finish the season will all six of those guys active.
I thought the team would have eight, maybe even nine linebackers. Usually the backups play special teams, but they must be relying on other players for that. I also think it's a big risk considering the questionable health of Joey Porter and the inexperience of Matt Roth.
Of these 53 players, only 27 were with the team at all last year (some of them, just barely). Basically half of the team are guys that were never a Dolphin before this year. That's an impressive roster overhaul.
8 of the 9 draft picks from this year made the team, with Lex Hilliard being the lone exception. He is on the practice squad, however.

News and Notes, Friday August 22nd

2008-08-22T09:41:00.003-04:00

Preseason Game Against the Jaguars

(Marc Serota/Getty Images, via NFL.com)

This game has come and gone and you have probably already read much about it. It was a good showing for the first team players and there were more positives to come out of this game than the first. It was Chad Pennington's first action and while he wasn't asked to do much, he ran the offense well and scored ten points on his three possessions. The other Chad (Henne) got the rest of the game at QB and once again looked comfortable and poised. He led Miami to three more field goals and completed 17 of 26 passes. Ricky Williams again showed why he is the Phins' best player and most valuable asset. He had several impressive runs, capped off by his four-yard touchdown run in the first quarter.

The defense looked better too. The defensive line was once again very active and causing disruptions and this week the linebackers did a better job of making and finishing the plays. The secondary started out okay but let down in the 4th quarter, allowing some long passes and two touchdowns.

Travis Daniels Traded

Earlier this week, news broke that Travis Daniels was traded to the Browns for an undisclosed draft pick. This was very surprising to me, not because Daniels wasn't on the team anymore, but because a team actually wanted him enough to trade for him. I know it's a low round pick but still, he probably would have been cut, at which point the Browns could have signed him. As for the Dolphins perspective, any pick acquired is a good one. Most people will say that a 6th or 7th round pick is useless as a lot of those guys don't even make the team, and if they do, they either never develop or just max out as a small time contributor. But, each pick is an asset, that can be used to improve the team. The pick can later be packaged to move up in a round in the draft or take a chance on a player that has high potential but low value.

Depth Chart Madness

The team released a new depth chart for the upcoming preseason game and there are a few things to note. Matt Roth is listed as a starting OLB. I'm not completely sold on this. This transition for him is not complete and if he is really our starter then we could have problems. Rookie Kendall Langford is listed as the starting LDE. I have no problem with this. he has been impressive and is well prepared for this role having played it in college. Ricky Williams has replaced Ronnie Brown atop the depth chart for injury (see below) and performance issues.

Injury Updates

Ronnie Brown: He came out of the game on Saturday with a thumb injury. He has since returned to practice wearing a small cast but he can still catch and run. The team has decided to hold him out of the game this weekend for precautionary reasons.
Joey Porter: He missed some practice this week with a knee injury. He returned and is expected to be healthy by week one but these nagging injuries are starting to stack up. That is never a good thing.
Charlie Anderson: He returned to practice yesterday after missing some time with a quad injury. With our lack of depth at OLB, he is needed and hopefully he picks up where he left off.
Michael Lehan: He is finally back. This is his first action of training camp. He won't be 100% for a while but hopefully he gets there. The team is counting on him to be a starting corner.

Preseason Game Number Three

The starters should see a lot of time and the team is still looking for improvement. I'd like to see more points, specifically more touchdowns. This preaseason we have had seven scoring drives, but only one of them ended in six points. We will probably play a lot of close, low scoring games this year. Sometimes there are critical moments in a game where three points is simply not good enough, six is needed. We must be able to punch it in the end zone when we have the opportunity. On defense I'd still like to see better play on third downs, and more big plays. So far we have only forced one turnover. Good defenses not only make the stops needed, but also set up their offense in good field position due to turnovers and sacks. We need more of that.

New Depth Chart, Jay Feely Cut

2008-08-12T09:07:00.004-04:00

Yesterday the Dolphins released an updated depth chart, per league rules, in time for the next preseason game. Here it is, in a rather convenient list form.

OFFENSE
QB: C. Pennington, J. McCown, J. Beck, C. Henne
RB: R. Brown, R. Williams, P. Cobbs, J. Parmele, L. Hilliard
FB: R. Mauia, B. Grigsby
WR1: T. Ginn, E. Wilford, D. Kircus, J Foster, A. Armstrong
WR2: D. Hagan, G. Camarillo, D Bess, J. Dunlap, S. Lymon
TE: A. Fasano, D. Martin, S. Ryan, J. Peelle, M. Mulligan
LT: J. Long, I. Ndukwe
LG: J. Smiley, S. Murphy
C: S. Satele, S. McKinney, M. Spanos
RG: D Thomas, T. Darilek, M Byrne
RT: V. Carey, D. Heerspink

DEFENSE
LDE: M. Roth, R. Starks, K Langford, R. Wright
NT: J. Ferguson, P. Soliai, A. Toribio
RDE: V. Holliday, P Merling, L. Dotson
SLB: J. Porter, R. Ninkovich, J. Glymph
ILB1: C. Crowder, K. Smith, K. Poppinga
ILB2: A. Ayodele, R. Torbor, Edmond Miles
WLB: C. Anderson, Q. Moses, K Saunders
LCB: W. Allen, J. Thomas, C. Roberson
RCB: A. Goodman, T. Daniels, N. Jones, W. Billingsley
SS: Y. Bell, K. Davis, C. Bryan
FS: J. Allen, C. Crocker, R. Hill

SPECIAL TEAMS
K: J. Feely, D. Carpenter
P: B. Fields
LS: J. Denney
KR/PR: T. Ginn, J. Foster, D. Bess

Quick thoughts on the new depth chart:

I know the quarterbacks are still technically listed by seniority but I think that's how it will stay. Pennington will start, McCown and beck are battling it out for the number two, whoever loses will be waived, and Henne is number three, no matter how well he does in practice. I know they could keep four but I just don't see that happening.
There is a real log-jam at that LDE spot. That spot I feel is really up for grabs. Roth is being experimented with at OLB, Langford is good but a rookie, Starks is solid but will move around the whole line, and even Wright has shown potential. Those four guys could end up in any order and I wouldn't be surprised.
Michael Lehan is nowhere to be found. His injury is probably more serious than being day-to-day. If he is active for week one against the Jets I'd be surprised.
Charlie Anderson is also hurt but he is on the list and hopefully will resume practicing soon.

News

Kelvin Smith suffered a serious knee injury during the preseason game and has been placed on the waived/injured list. I'm not quite sure what that means except that he should get money he was due and will probably sit out the season. He was a seventh round pick last year and showed a little promise, but I don't imagine him having much future with the team. Replacing him on the roster is Maurice Fountain, who played for Clemson and most recently the Utah Blaze of the AFL2. Wow. No Ricky Williams jokes, please.

Also, breaking this morning is news that kicker Jay Feely has been cut. I've had a feeling he may end up losing the kicking battle, but I thought it would take several weeks of practice and preseason games for Dan Carpenter to prove he should win it. Although I like Carpenter, this move makes me a little nervous. Feely was great on field goals last year and the kickoffs figured to be better this year with the improvement of the coverage teams. I also hate to see an injury play any part in determing a position battle (Feely has been nursing one and hasn't practiced in a while). We shouldn't feel too bad for jay though, he is good and once he is 100% healthy there is no doubt that he will be kicking somewhere in the NFL.

Preseason Game One: Recap

2008-08-09T09:56:00.006-04:00

(sun-sentinel.com)

Before I get to the game there are a couple things I want to mention. Obviously, the Dolphins signed Chad Pennington. I gave my thoughts about the potential move a couple days ago, so there is no reason to elaborate again. I was not in favor of this acquisition but it has been made and now we need to embrace it. There are some good things that can come out of it, namely getting insider information about our division rival the New York Jets.

With this move, one of two quarterbacks will eventually have to be removed from the roster. I thought it'd be a fairly simple decision. Pennington is an upgrade for Josh McCown's role and he is the one who should be cut. But, there are rumors that if John Beck, who has had a slow start to training camp, doesn't start to turn things around, that he would be the one dangled in a trade or released. I am not in favor of that. McCown is a known quantity in this league (below average player) while Beck is young and still developing. It would be a bad move to give up on Beck this soon.

On to the game, I'll start with the good. The one player that stood out most was Ricky Williams. He just looks better than everyone else on a football field and made a couple nice runs. Our strength should be running the ball and giving it to Ricky is clearly a good option. All he needs is a small hole or crease and he can burst through for a big gain. Even one rush he was stuffed in the backfield, but he bounced off, took it the other direction, eluded another tackle and made a six yard gain. If he plays all sixteen games he could put up great numbers and really give us a good chance to win.

Chad Henne looked solid in his debut. You hear this cliche a lot and I don't like to use it, but he really did not look like a rookie out there. He was poised and had a couple of impressive third and long conversions where he stepped up in the pocket and delivered a bullet. He also didn't have any "wtf?" moments that you see some rookies make.

Both rookies on the defensive line (Philip Merling and Kendall Langford) also impressed. The both got a good rush and were pretty good stopping the run. I don't think these guys will put up big stats but there job is to occupy space and disrupt things. Along with nose tackle Jason Ferguson they gave the linebackers a lot of opportunities to make plays.

Dan Carpenter is making this kicking battle interesting. He made both of his field goal attempts which were of above average difficulty. The first was a 41-yarder off the infield dirt and he followed it up with a 49-yard conversion from the grass. He didn't have any touchbacks but it appeared as if Miami was using the directional kicking strategy. Carpenter and the coverage team did well with that.

Let's move to the bad side. The receivers were as advertised. They failed to impress. David Kircus made a few nice catches but other than that they had a quiet outing. The three players figured to get the most time this year (Ginn, Wilford, Hagan) were rather invisible, each just catching one ball. Tampa did a good job in coverage but it's still their job to get open and make plays.

The problem on defense was stopping the intermediary passing game. The Bucs did a great job of methodically moving the ball down the field with short passes and efficient runs. I'm not sure if it was the linebackers fault for not covering well or if it was the cornerbacks who should be jamming receivers at the line. The west coast style posed a problem for our defense and they will have to take a look at the film.

One more person I thought had a bad night was Jayson Foster. He won't get many opportunities in the preseason games to impress and in this one he didn't have any dynamic returns and he even muffed one punt. He looked like he didn't belong on the field quite honestly. Let's hope he turns it around this week.

Overall this was much like any other preseason game. The things that went well you say to yourself, "Now that's an encouraging sign." When things don't go so well, you just chalk it up as the preseason mistakes that will get corrected eventually.

Coming up this week are only five practices over the Monday through Thursday span. I figure Pennington will get lots of time and reps while he relearns this Dan Henning offense. The next preseason game is on Saturday in Jacksonville facing the Jaguars.

Update: Also of note, starting outside linebacker Charlie Anderson left the game with a hamstring injury, no word yet on his status.

Training Camp Update & Preseason Game Preview

2008-08-08T09:19:00.003-04:00

Training Camp

To know what exactly is going on in training camp I recommend checking out the Palm Beach Posts' Inside The Dolphins blog. They have two reporters at every practice who run back and forth writing updates about what is going on.

News

Believe what you want to believe about Chad Pennington. One place I read says the Dolphins are the only team pursuing him. Another place says that six teams have contacted his agent. I gave my thoughts on the situation yesterday and haven't changed. He is not a huge upgrade over McCown (who we'd likely cut) and not worth the money to sign him and eat McCown's contract.

Ronnie Brown will be a game-time decision for the game tomorrow night. If it were me, I wouldn't play him. I know running backs need to see some live action to get back in the flow of a game, but he is coming of an ACL injury and there is no reason to risk one of our biggest strengths. Play him for a bit in the third or fourth preseason game and then ease him into the regular season.

We have a kicking competition. Sparano said the battle is "very even." Jay Feely's injury has allowed rookie Dan Carpenter to shine while Jay rides the bike. If Carpenter can prove he is accurate (4-4 yesterday, all from 40+ yards), then his ability to make longer kicks and have better kickoffs may win him the job. That's still unlikely, but we'll see.

Preseason Game One: Here are the things I'll be watching.

Quarterbacks: Obviously, that's what everyone will focus on. Coach Sparano has informed them what the playing time will be but it's still a secret to everyone else. Whoever faces the Bucs first team defense can make a real big impression if he can move the ball and score points. The players that get the 2nd and 3rd teams will have some at stake but not as much.
Receivers: They have been criticized by the coach for dropping too many balls in practice. Dropping passes in a preseason game is the easiest way to ensure you'll be cut or moved down the depth chart. Ernest Wilford has been struggling but can he turn it around in a game? The opposite goes for Derek Hagan. We always hear about his great practices but never see those come to life in a game. Finally, is Ted Ginn taking the next step to be a legit #1 wide receiver or is he still just a speedster out of his element?
Kendall Langford: He may start at LDE, having unseated Matt Roth at that spot. Langford was an intriguing small schoool (Hampton) prospect who played in a 3-4 and seems to be a good fit. Word is he has done well in practice and now we can see if it translates against a different offense.
Special Teams: This area was atrocious last year. There are lots of new guys on the coverage teams and lets hope they are better. As I mentioned above Jay Feely is hurt so we should see plenty of Dan Carpenter handling all of the kicking duties. Also, Brandon Fields has been booming punts in camp, but he can he launch some 60-yarders in a game with a rush coming at him?

One Final Thought

To all those people who believe it'll be nice to win and that it is important, because we were 1-15 and just want to get some confidence by winning a game, even if it's preseason, that's a load of shit. Yes, winning would be nice, but it wouldn't mean anything. We just want to learn about all of our players and get a clearer picture of who will contribute and who should be packing their bags. Scoring and winning is great and will be fun if it happens but it is still just an exhibition game.

Leave Him A Hanging Chad!

2008-08-07T12:42:00.006-04:00

I'm sure everyone is aware of the situation. Brett Favre was traded to the Jets and the Jets will no counter by releasing Chad Pennington. Many people say Chad should come straight to Miami and start week one against his former team. It seems to make sense. Bill Parcells drafted him. Pennington can give us an inside look at the Jets playbook and defenses and other insider information. However, I am NOT in favor of acquiring Pennington.

Reason #1: He can't throw deep routes.

This is a known fact. If Chad is the quarterback, don't expect any passes longer than twelve yards to be completed, unless of course, he completes it to the wrong team, which is likely. He has had shoulder issues and simply can't burn a defense with the long ball if given the opportunity. Considering our number one receiver's (Ted Ginn) best skill is speed and deep routes, this quarterback pairing would not be a good fit. This allows defenses to stack the box and dare us to hook up on a long pass. Won't happen.

Reason #2: Which quarterback will be the odd man out?

Simple mathematics, we will only have three quarterbacks this year. If Pennington comes in and sticks to the 53-man roster, who is the odd one out. Josh McCown could be cut, but we just invested $6.25 million to him in the offseason. That wouldn't be the biggest of losses but still a chunk of money wasted this year and the next. John Beck could be dangled in a trade but I doubt anybody (even Cam Cameron) would offer anything serious. If he was cut or put on the practice squad though he'd probably be picked up. We should not be so eager to give up on Beck, he still has a lot of potential and it's only his second year. We just drafted Henne and he has been arguably the best quarterback in camp. He's not going anywhere.

Just say no to Chad. He is not a quarterback of the future and isn't a worthy stop-gap solution.

(thanks to my cousin Dewey for the image at the top)

2008 Season Preview: NFC South

2008-08-02T10:01:00.004-04:00

This has been the division of least dominance over the last five years. Each season, the team that finished in last place the previous year has ended up winning the division. Each team has won it at least once and been to a conference championship game. Will this season follow the trend? (Here's a hint, no.)

Atlanta Falcons

Last Season: 4-12

Why they will be good: Uh, I don't know. I think, much like the Dolphins, they can't be much worse. They had a nice draft and are trying to build from the bottom up. Just because they don't have a lot of proven NFL talent on the roster doesn't mean there is no NFL talent. Their success will likely depend on the immediate impact of rookies, especially quarterback Matt Ryan.

Why they will struggle: Did I mention they don't have much proven NFL talent? As we saw with the Dolphins last year trying your best doesn't get you much in this league unless you have some talent and ability on the roster. The schedule isn't mighty tough but they should be an underdog in most every game.

Vegas Over/Under Win Total: 4.5 - This is a tough call. My blind prediction was 4-12 so therefore I'd take the under, but I wouldn't feel too confident about it.

Carolina Panthers

Last Season: 7-9

Why they will be good: The Panthers to me have either been perennial under-achievers or perennially overrated. They always seem to be a trendy pick to surprise people. Do they have the talent and just never come through, or are they honestly about where they should be? I say the former. This team has talent and in this division should be good. It's a big year for head coach John Fox. The addition of Jonathan Stewart will improve the running game and help them control the clock and the scoreboard.

Why they will struggle: They played four different quarterbacks last year (more than the Dolphins!) one of which being 44-year old Vinny Testaverde. They must have one guy, likely Jake Delhomme, step up and solidify the position. That means playing well and staying healthy. If not the may have to resort to Matt Moore or Brett Basanez.

Vegas Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 - Another close one. I'll say over, barely. The schedule isn't too difficult and they should be one game better than last year.

New Orleans Saints

Last Season: 7-9

Why they will be good: I'm high on the Saints this year. They got off to a poor start last year and didn't finish well but for the bulk of the season played well. I love the addition of Jonathan Vilma and Jeremy Shockey. They have good players at the skill positions and now head coach Sean Payton has a little more experience. In this division and the soft schedule, they should thrive.

Why they will struggle: They must not get off to a bad start and have a snowball effect to derail the season. Consistency will be the name of the game for them. Also, with the game in London, they only have seven home games, along with nine road games, one of which obviously being a long way away. They better not get fatigued.

Vegas Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 This is the easiest decision so far. Over. They have four games against teams that were 4-12 last year. They should win those and at least five out of the other twelve.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last Season: 9-7, Division Winner, Lost Wild Card Game

Why they will be good: They were good for fourteen games last year before shutting it down and then getting soundly defeated by the Giants in the playoffs. They maintain much of the roster that has a lot of veteran players that know what it takes to win. The addition of Warrick Dunn on offense and Aqib Talib in the secondary should help.

Why they will struggle: I think they overachieved last year. They took advantage of a weak division clinched it early. They will have a rougher time with the division foes this year along with games against the Cowboys and Seahawks. The veteran players are good to have but the risk of injury and fatigue at the end of the season is higher.

Vegas Over/Under Win Total: 8 - I'm tempted to say push but I'll man up and pick a side. Under. Like I said, the division and schedule is tougher.

Overall Outlook

Division Winner: New Orleans Saints
Wild Card Possibilities: Carolina Panthers

Be sure to stay tuned to all of the season previews along with the recap and season predictions.

Terry Glenn to the Dolphins?

2008-07-29T20:20:00.003-04:00

The Fort Worth Star-Telegram is reporting that wide receiver Terry Glenn will sign with the Miami Dolphins within the next few days. This news isn't the least bit surprising.

The Dolphins are very thin at receiver and don't have much proven NFL talent at that position.
After the Jason Taylor trade, the Dolphins have saved so much cap space, that they are below the salary floor, meaning they must spend more money this year.
Terry Glenn is most definitely a Parcells guy, having played with him in New England and Dallas.

Glenn missed fifteen games last year due to a knee injury. The knee is strong enough to play on, but doctors have told him he needs to have microfracture surgery in the future. He was due to make $1.74 million this year. The Cowboys, knowing the risk of further injury, were asking him to sign a waiver, so if he was hurt in camp and missed the season that he would only be due $500,000. Glenn declined and asked Dallas to release him. A couple weeks later they did.

Of course this signing isn't official and Glenn will have to pass a physical, but it doesn't mean I can't look forward to it. This is a move that made too much sense not to make. We had to want Terry Glenn and the only real question is if Glenn would want us. He is 34 and probably wants to play for a good team in contention for the playoffs, but those teams are all pretty much set at wide receiver by now. Jacksonville was rumored to have interest but they didn't seem eager to act.

Stay tuned to see how this story turns out.

Training Camp: Top Five Position Battles (#3)

2008-07-29T09:20:00.007-04:00

Right Outside Linebacker

(miamiherald.com)

Originally, this wasn't a battle at all, it was Jason Taylor's spot. With him on the roster the defense was actually looking pretty solid, in particular the linebacking corps. Now though, that spot is huge hole to fill. Charlie Anderson and Quentin Moses (shown above) are the guys who were expected to learn from JT and be fill-in players. Instead they will battle it out for the starting job while the other guy will still probably get significant time. Let's get some background information.

Charlie Anderson is in his fifth year out of Mississippi and has played all four of his NFL years with the Houston Texans. He has never been a starter but has always been a solid backup and special teams contributor. He was signed as a free agent this spring.

Quentin Moses was a standout defensive end for the University of Georgia and posted an 11.5 sack season in his junior year (2005). He was drafted in the third round of the 2007 draft, but didn't stick with the Raiders or the Cardinals. The Dolphins signed him off waivers in October of last year.

Charlie Anderson says he is more comfortable dropping into to coverage and is working on improving his rush abilities. He has beaten Jake Long with speed rushes a few times so far in camp. He probably has the best chance to start because he is the more complete player. If he can prove to be a good as a rusher as Quentin Moses, then the sot should surely be his. Moses though, is a pass rusher by trade, and should be better at that than Anderson. He just needs to learn to play standing up and perhaps drop into coverage every now and then. During the season we could see these guys rotate depending on the down and distance, but my money would be on Anderson right now.

Training Camp: Top Five Position Battles (#4)

2008-07-28T09:50:00.000-04:00

The Backfield

I talked a little bit about Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown in my first training camp post. They are the roster locks and figure to be the best unit of the team. The other three guys competing for probably one spot are 6th round picks Jalen Parmele and Lex Hilliard along with roster holdover Patrick Cobbs.

Usually being a roster holdover is a good thing but this regime has already shown they will buck that trend. In fact, I'd now say that if you were handpicked by Parcells and Ireland, via free agency or the draft, you stand a better chance of sticking around. Cobbs is a special teams ace which is usually what is desired most for a third string running back, but it is a time of keeping the best all-around players, not niche guys. He will have to start showing some running ability and also hope the new guys don't develop the special teams abilities too quickly if he wants to hold them off for this spot.

As for the other two guys, it looks like Parmele has been given the most carries in practice thus far and has shown a flash or two. He is probably the best pure runner out of the three and may project as one of those late round steals at running back we have seen in the NFL lately. My money would be on him, but he does need to be able to play on special teams which we probably won't see or hear much about until the preseason games.

Lex Hilliard is the afterthought in this race but he does seem to have a niche that could earn him a spot. In college he was a phenomenal goal to go runner and racked up a large amount of touchdowns (50). He could project as a hybrid tailback/fullback that could be used in short yardage or third down situations. Like Parmele though, he needs to try to become the special teams ace that Cobbs is.

The fullback situation should be rather interesting as well. Reagan "I'm the Juggernaut, Bitch" Mauia did an okay job in his rookie year but was nothing special. Two things he has working against him are that he is a roster holdover and did have an arrest in the offseason. Boomer Grigsby was signed as a free agent to make this a competition and I'm half hoping he wins just because he would win "Best Name on the Team" honors hands down. He was a big special teams star in Kansas City but supposedly wanted a better look at fullback. We are giving that to him and if he can prove to be at least as good as Maiua, he will probably get the spot.

Prediction

I think Cobbs will be released and Parmele will win the third running back spot. I'll take Boomer Grigsby for the fullback spot. As for Lex Hilliard, I think it's a toss up whether he stays on as another back. I'd bet on him making it.

Training Camp: Weekend Recap

2008-07-27T16:55:00.008-04:00

(miamiherald.com)

This weekend Miami had their first three training camp practices, starting with morning and evening sessions on Saturday, and wrapping up with an afternoon session today. I did not go to any of the practices but have been a total junkie, reading recaps from any writer who did attend, and watching all of the interviews and highlights on the Dolphins' official website. What follows are my best interpretations of the practices, based on all the content I have taken in.

Quarterbacks

The quarterbacks can best be described as consistently inconsistent. Each guy will make some good throws and follow it up with some not so good ones. I would have to believe everything is still even, but if that's the case then McCown would be the favorite based on his superior experience. Henne missed the first practice due to a contract holdout, but that was taken care of and he hasn't missed any of his scheduled reps (The QB's do a rotation where one sits for each practice. Henne's scheduled sit date was Saturday's morning practice, the one he missed). I believe the battle for the starting spot in week one will ultimately be won by who best performs in the preseason games. At this point, anyone's guess is as good as mine.

The Backfield

Ronnie Brown is supposedly being sprinkled back into contact drills to be very careful with his knee but it sounds like is doing well. His speed is good but the ultimate test for knee injuries is how comfortable you are planting and cutting on that leg. Brown said he is still a little cautious and doesn't trust his knee 100%. Ricky Williams is proving he's our best player and supposedly looks awesome. Yes, I worry about his durability and how he will do in live games but it's clear he is 100% and ready to dominate. I read a blurb about Jalen Parmele that he hits the hole hard and is in the secondary in no time. Miami may need him in some capacity if Brown or Williams gets hurt. I haven't heard anything really about the fullback situation.

Wide Receivers

Ernest Wilford is big and he also doesn't care that the Patriots were 15 games better than the 'Phins last year, he says he wants to win the division. I haven't heard much from Ted Ginn. Davone Bess catches literally anything that is thrown near him. Jayson Foster has impressed with his speed and playmaking ability, but I think h's still a longshot to make the roster. I hope Terry Glenn is brought in. It makes too much sense not too happen. Miami needs the receiver help and has the cap space after the Taylor trade that they must spend. Glenn would probably sign for a small deal with incentives and an injury clause. Get on the phone Bill.

Tight Ends

I've only really heard Anthony Fasano and David Martin's names mentioned as they have caught some balls. I think Fasano will have the leg up and unless he falters he will be the guy.

Offensive Line

Four spots are set (Jake Long, Justin Smiley, Samson Satele, Vernon Carey) and the right guard spot is basically an open tryout. Trey Darilek has gotten most of the first team work with Shawn Murhpy and Steve McKinney due to get some of their own. McKinney has been held out of drills, still coming back from an knee injury. Justin Smiley said he thinks Long could end up being better than Joe Thomas. I'll settle for being a franchise left tackle and pro-bowler.

Defensive Line

Overall I haven't heard to much about the defense except for when they intercept passes. 2nd round pick Philip Merling looked in amazing shape but has been average in practices. Nose tackle Jason Ferguson has been good but the South Florida heat can slow him down. Vonnie Holiday worked with new defensive coach Paul Pasqualoni on playing standing up, perhaps in a Jason Taylor role. It's a 3-4 defense, by the way, if that was any doubt. Surprisingly Matt Roth is playing at defensive end. That will be interesting to watch and see if he can hold off Merling for the starting spot.

Linebackers

Charlie Anderson has been getting most of the reps at Jason Taylor's spot and will probably end up starting there but I'd still look out for Quentin Moses. The three way battle for the two inside spots should go all the way until week one. Joey Porter has been absent and placed on the PUP list due to an ankle injury suffered when he was running on his own a couple weeks ago. Great, that sounds very 2007-like, our best defensive player injured not on a football field. He should be back soon though.

Secondary

Nathan Jones is the name I've been hearing most. He has intercepted passes and been the beneficiary of some bad John Beck decisions. Will Allen should be the only lock to start in the secondary, so Jones can certainly nab the other cornerback spot if he keeps it up. I still think Jason Allen and Yeremiah Bell will be the starting safeties. Right now the defense is way ahead of the offense, but that's usually how things are.

Punting

Brandon Fields has been launching punts into orbit with several 60+ yarders. That's great when there is no rush, now try to get those off during the games. If he does, he could probably be our team MVP this year.

Kicking

Jay Feely missed a few kicks and Dan Carpenter does have a strong leg.

Here's a list of places I visited that contributed information for this report.

Palm Beach Post Dolphins Blog : By far the best newspaper coverage of the team. The team doesn't allow live-blogging, but the Post has reporters running from the practice field to the media room to post updates every 30-40 minutes. They have had the most amount of content.

FinHeaven Message Boards: A fan-site filled with rabid supporters, some of which go to the practices and post first hand recaps of their own.

Miami Dolphins Official Site: Their video content is much improved with more content and slightly easier to use. Open the Aquavision player and watch many interviews and full Sparano press conferences.

Training Camp: Top Five Position Battles (#5)

2008-07-24T11:17:00.005-04:00

Kicker

This is Bill Parcells favorite position, not. In all seriousness though, the job of kicking has become increasingly important as most teams have good return men and special teams units. Also, bad teams rely more on field position battles during the game. Missed field goals and bad kickoffs can ruin your mood and put your defense in a bad spot.

Jay Feely is the incumbent but we have seen that doesn't mean much to Parcells and Co. Feely was about as good as you can ask last year (21-23 FG's, the only two misses coming on the swamp of Heinz Field and the slipper pitch of Wembley, but we lost both of those games by 3). Feely's problem was kickoffs. He doesn't have the strongest leg and doesnt get many touchbacks. Because of that, he had to do a lot of pooch and squib kicks which are stupid and unsuccessful.

Playing the role of underdog is Dan Carpenter. He was signed as a free agent out of the University of Montana. He has a very strong leg and was quite good at FG's over fifty yards in college. The problem is his accuracy. He improved each year in college but is still not close to being equally as money as Feely. Plus, he is a rookie, so if he wins the job, we may have to deal with rookie jitters and mistakes which we really can't afford. He has a solid chance to win the job if he proves that he is accurate enough to be relied upon.

My Odds

Feely: 1-3
Carpenter: 4-1
Both: 10-1

Jason Taylor Traded

2008-07-24T09:10:00.005-04:00

I'll make this brief since I'm way late on giving my thoughts, and you have probably heard countless writers and reporters tell you why this was or wasn't a smart move and you don't need me to echo that.

Pro's

The 2nd Round Pick: Asking a first round pick for JT was unrealistic. I thought we would ultimately have to settle for a 3rd rounder if we did trade him, but we lucked out when Washington had a starting DE lost for the year and they had needed to replace him. Most people will argue that this pick would have been better had we acquired it before the draft in April so we can use it this year. I disagree. You can only draft so many players and only so many of them actually make the team. This isn't a one year rebuilding process. It will take a few great drafts to build a foundation for us to be successful. As it stands now, we are guaranteed to have three of the first sixty-four picks next year. I'm not complaining.
Circus Has Left Town: The media coverage of all things Jason Taylor was ridiculous. There was way too much speculation and hysteria over what would happen between him, Parcells, and the Dolphins. Who do we think we are? New York? Philadelphia? At least now we can focus on issues on the field and how the team will do this season. All the questions about Hollywood can be redirected to our nation's capital.

Con's

The Defense: Duh. Our defense was actually looking really good with JT around. He and Joey Porter would be the edge rushers with Super Bowl champion Reggie Torbor manning the middle with Akin Ayodele and Channing Crowder. Now someone has to slide outside and Charlie Anderson may be thrust into a starters role. Taylor was the cornerstone of the defense and with him gone everything changes.
Jake Long: Going against Taylor every day in practice would make him much more prepared for the best pass rushers in the league. Now he gets to test his skills against average and marginal NFL players. Now, he will be doing the most learning on Sundays.

Top 3: People Who Should Give the First Pep-Talk of the Season

2008-07-24T08:58:00.009-04:00

Players report to training camp tomorrow and will begin practice on Saturday. Let's face it, Miami will need a lot of motivating and belief instilled in them because their talent level is not up to par with most of the NFL. With that being said, here are the top three people I would hire, if I were in charge, to give the players the first motivational speech of the 2008 campaign.

Herm Edwards

Sure he coaches the Chiefs, who need a good pep talk of their own, but maybe we can join forces and listen in.

"You play to win the game! Hello! You don't play, just to play it."

This will be news to the Dolphins players, as most them will nod and smile having finally understood what the objective is out on the field on Sundays. Step one, knowing the goal, literally.

Mike Ditka and Phil Weston

Highlights include:

"Break peoples clavicles!"
"New gameplan guys, get the ball to the Italians."
"Don't listen to Phil."
Mike Ditka: "This is going to be the hardest thing you've done in your entire lives, but when it's over, you will be champions! Now go kick some ass! Phil Weston: "Okay guys, on three...one...two...three...Let's have fun!" Mike Ditka: "Let's have fun? What the hell is the matter with you?"
"Everything good starts with a brat"

Bill Walton

"Guys, never before in the history of western civilization has a group of men come together with more to prove and everything to accomplish. Get ready to build, it's going to be an unbelievable year! We are going all the way, from the bottom to the top! Like Jack climbing the gigantic beanstalk! You guys need to play with the romanticism of Beethoven's Third Symphony and joy of Jerry Garcia who would deliver the most powerful of performances with the Grateful Dead. We will embarrass the other teams and expose them for the pathetic hapless souls that they are, all the way to the Super Bowl!"

Dolphins Sign OL McKinney

2008-05-19T10:55:00.002-04:00

That headline might sound a little familiar, but Miami didn't sign former Dolphin Seth McKinney, instead they acquired his brother Steve McKinney. This came just days after Drew Mormino was unexpectedly cut. Mormino was an intriguing prospect who was very versatile on the offensive line. He was a center in college but was transitioning into a guard at the next level. His problem was a shoulder injury that cut short his 2007 season and was probably responsible for the failed physical which led to his release.

Steve McKinney is 33 and was most recently a member of the Houston Texans. He was cut in March because he is coming off an ACL injury and was due $1.35 million. Due to Miami's uncertainty at one of the guard spots, he will be given every opportunity to get healthy and be the starter. Most likely the team would want him to start at LG for several reasons. First, it would ensure there would only be one rookie on the unit (Jake Long, LT). Also, it would allow Justin Smiley to stay at his natural position of RG. Finally, it would allow the rookies competing for the spot to watch and learn with minimal playing time. While that all sounds great, we must remember he is in his 30's and coming off a knee injury. The more likely scenario is that he splits time with the rookies Shawn Murphy and Donald Thomas to ensure that trio stays healthy.

Wide Receiver Outlook

2008-05-14T09:12:00.007-04:00

The wide receivers unit is one of the most unproven units on the team right now. Our roster is loaded with several players who are young and lack experience at the NFL level. This area may prove to be one of the more interesting battles for roster spots and playing time, not just during training camp but throughout the regular season as well. Let's take a look at the players.

Ted Ginn: We all obvioulsy know the story with Ginn. He is the focus of much of the fan base because of what happened in the 2007 draft (actually what didn't happen). He showed good flashes in his rookie season but still poses a big question mark. Can he improve his route running? Can he be a legit starting wideout in the league? Can he be the go-to guy for whoever our quarterback is? It will be an important year for him. It appears the team may limit or completely take away his kick return duties, so he must produce on the offense to show his worth.

Ernest Wilford: This is an offseason acquisition that has sort of flown under the radar. We made a lot of free agent signings and focused mainly on defense so Wilford seems to be the forgotten man. He isn't too flashy on the field but he is very productive. He doesn't get wide open or burn people on deep routes but he is big, physical and makes tough catches. His qualities seems to be a great compliment to Ginn's. He also should provide much value in the red zone because he can run fade routes. Miami didn't have anyone who can run and catch the fade route last season.

Tab Perry: He is another offseason addition that isn't talked about much. He saw very limited action in Cincinatti and is more likely to make an impact as a return man rather than a receiver. I'll admit I don't know much about him so I offer this nugget from Rotoworld. "Perry flashed in practice as a Bengal and can return kicks but never stayed healthy. If he can get his hip issues worked out, Perry could be an asset on special teams. Otherwise, he will likely struggle to make an impact."

Derek Hagan: Hearing that name probably makes Dolphins Fans cringe. He was drafted a couple years ago and was a promising prospect but hasn't made it yet. In college he broke numerous records at Arizona State and in the Pac-10, but in the NFL he hasn't proved that he can catch the ball, literally. It seems he is failing to get good separation but when he does has a knack for dropped passes. He will probably get one more year in Miami to sort things out, but like Ginn there are a lot of questions that must be answered this year.

Greg Camarillo: Hearing his name always make me sigh in relief. Thank you Greg. That was huge last year catching a rare accurate pass by Cleo Lemon and being able to score. We will never forget it. Sadly though, your biggest supporter Cam Cameron is not the coach anymore and you may not be afforded the same opportunities from now on. I hope he gets a fair shot because he can be a good slot receiver in the mold of Wes Welker. The problem is, special teams is going to play a key role in determining all the bench spots. Camarillo must show he can be an asset on the coverage teams to assure making the club.

David Kircus: Like Tab Perry, he was signed in the offseason and will fight to make the team. He hasn't produced at the NFL level and also has some character concerns. Again, I don't know too much about him either.

The rest of the players competing for roles are the players signed as undrafted free agents which I talk about here. The two names that keep getting talked about are Davone Bess and Jayson Foster. Bess was extremely productive at Hawaii and just seems to be able to catch whatever is thrown near him. What hurts his cause is that he doesn't seem to be a special teams contributor and he's not that dynamic on offense. One who is dynamic is Jayson Foster. He would most likely make the team in a Brad Davis-like role (listed as WR but really is a WR/RB/QB/just get the ball in his hands). Both of these guys and the others listed have legitimate chances to win the job but they must clearly outperform everyone else.

My Overall Assessment

Ted Ginn and Ernest Wilford are roster locks and will be the starters barring something drastic. Derek Hagan should stick but he shouldn't feel to comfortable. He is a bad training camp away from being unemployed. Tab Perry, David Kircus, Greg Camarillo, and Davone Bess are the four most likely to win the last two spots (three if you believe Hagan will be cut). If i had to speculate, I'd say Perry and Bess win out. The others listed would have to play out of there mind and also hope that everyone else underperforms. I don't see that happening. Foster is a possibility, but most likely it would be if the club chose to carry six receivers.

TG&T Inaugural Dolphins' QB Power Rankings

2008-05-06T10:53:00.005-04:00

Taking a page out of my cousin Dewey's playbook, I've decided to give you my power rankings for the quarterback position. Dewey of course ranked the current QB's on the Baltimore's roster, and I will rank the players on the Miami's squad.

1. John Beck: He is at the top for several reasons. First he is the incumbent. Barely, but he is the only player on the roster to have started at QB for the Dolphins (including the last game we played). Also, he has the slight nod in terms of experience to be positioned above rookie Chad Henne, yet he hasn't failed as much as Josh McCown. He is in some sort of middle ground where he is a young and unproven but still worthy of more chances. Finally, the new regime will be afforded some luxury if he fails, because he wasn't hand picked by them, he was inherited. The fans would pass judgment and just blame Cam Cameron more if Beck never pans out. In my opinion, he will be given every opportunity to start. He won't have to beat out the other two in training camp and the preseason. If he just performs on par with them, he should be the one taking the first snap against the Jets.

2. Josh McCown: You have already heard a little bit of what I think about McCown. He has had several chances to show he can be a consistent starter and improve to being an average quarterback. he has never reached that level. This will be his seventh season and this is his fourth team. He never caught on in Arizona or Detroit. In his most recent stop, he lost the job to Daunte Culpepper in Oakland. The organization showed us where they think McCown stands by his free agent signing details. he is making money that is about level with most second string QB's. For now he is the backup, if he gives us any more than that in the future, that's a plus.

3. Chad Henne: A lot of people are really excited about him. I would say I'm mildly excited. I think he has a lot of upside and he does have the quailties that Parcells and Co. like in a quarterback. My brother said he looks like a poor man's Drew Bledsoe. If he is anything like the young Bledsoe, then I'm fine with that. He took the worst team in the league and made it a playoff team in a couple years and made a Super Bowl within four. The problem is, rookies almost never start from day one at this position. he will really have to prove himself in all of the training camps and preseason games to get his shot. The more likely scenario is if the team struggles, he could be handed the keys in second half of the season like Beck was last year.

Notes: The numbers by definition must be 1, 2, 3, etc. but if I were allowed some room for interpretation I would say the three players are really 2a, 2b, and 2c. Right now I would say they are all second string quarterbacks until week one of the regular season, when someone will be promoted to starter (#1) and someone will be demoted to the third string.

Opinion: My thoughts will most likely fluctuate daily but as of right now my feelings are as follows. Chad Henne should start from day one. It is clear that the organization really likes him and he is viewed as the QB of the future. Let him get his feet wet, go through the growing pains, and if he is the big tough player you thought he was, he will improve in year two and so on.

2008 Mini-Camp Over

2008-05-05T10:23:00.003-04:00

As discussed earlier, this weekend the Dolphins held their first workouts of the 2008 season. It was only for rookies and included the nine draft picks and thirty undrafted free agents. Instead of trying to pass off as if I know how the camp went, I'd rather suggest you check the local media outlets who actually had sports writers in attendance. In short, it sounds like Jake Long looked worthy of being a #1 pick (I'd hope so against other rookies), Davone Bess looked like a great candidate for a wide receiver spot, and Chad Henne had his ups and downs but overall had a good camp.

In case you were wondering my opinion on Jason Taylor, I don't have one. I believe the media is largely responsible for the circus around him and the team and I will not contribute to it. As long as he is on the roster, I look forward to him having another great season for us and hopefully he leads our defense and team to a big improvement in 2008.

First Mini-Camp of the 2008 Season

2008-05-02T08:38:00.004-04:00

Today is the start of the first training camp for the Miami Dolphins. You shouldn't get too excited though. It is only a few days long and is only for the rookies. Also, it's closed to the public. So we will have to rely on information from real reporters to know how everyone did. At this point I guess it would be a good time to list all of our draft picks along with a couple of thoughts on each player. In addition, I'll list the fourteen players signed as undrafted free agents and four players invited to camp for a tryout.

Draft Picks

Jake Long, OT: I've talked about him before. He solidifies the line and it should be a decent unit.
Phillip Merling, DE: This was a steal. There is a bit of risk because of his injury and because he is a tweener in the 3-4, but I think he will develop nicely into a 3-4 DE.
Chad Henne, QB: Ask me how this turns out in four years. I like the pick, especially considering he fell to #57 and we didn't draft him earlier. He could play right away, I wouldn't be surprised.
Kendall Langford, DE: I was surprised when i heard his name but after studying up, it might be a great pick. He will have to transition to being a two-gapper but this is a good investment because he is a great athlete.
Shawn Murphy, OG: He immediately is the favorite to start at RG, because Jeff Ireland said so. If he is like the pro athlete his father was, then we are in good shape.
Jalen Parmele, RB: He is a nice looking back who had great production in the MAC. Even though RB wasn't really a "need," it's nice to have some insurance for Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams
Donald Thomas, OG: We have another candidate for the starting RG spot. He and his coaches at UConn have connections with Sparano and they really like him. This is a good value pick for a team with no depth at the offensive line.
Lex Hilliard, RB: A lot of people seem to have a problem with another RB, but I don't. This guy was great at Montana and may project as a FB or goal line and short yardage specialist. Also look for him on special teams.
Lionel Dotson, DE: We beef up our defensive line yet again. For a team that was the worst defending the run, you can't have enough big players trying to earn their spot on the field.

Undrafted Free Agent Signings

Davone Bess, WR: He is the most recognizeable name on this list for college football fans and probably has the best chance of making the team. He had huge production in that Hawaii offense but does possess all the skills needed for the NFL. He may need to prove he can be a special teams player though if he wants to make it
Dan Carpenter, K: He has a big leg and is good from 50+ yards. He could compete for the kickoff duties since it doesn't appear the team wants Jay Feely handling those.
Jayson Foster, WR: He did it all in I-AA and his agent says he is more dangerous with a football than Darren McFadden! He will compete for kick return duties and perhaps be a nice weapon for the offense every now and then.
Titus Brown LB
Mike Byrne OL
Dan Gore, OL
Daren Heerspink, OL
Aaron Lane, CB
Selwyn Lymon, WR
Matt Mulligan, TE
Kelly Poppinga, LB
Kory Robertson, D
Marcel Reese, WR
Justin Wynn, WR

Good Old Fashioned Tryouts

Willie Copeland, QB
Kris Kasparek, TE
Rolly Lumbala, FB
Scorpio Babers, CB

2008 NFL Draft Live Blog

2008-04-26T10:38:00.012-04:00

Here I will provide some quick thoughts on each pick as it happens and also some short analysis of every move the Miami Dolphins make. So here we go...

MIA - Jake Long: We already knew this, I give my thoughts in an earlier post.
STL - Chris Long: They could have traded but this is a solid pick. I think the 4-3 DE is a great position for him
ATL - Matt Ryan: The right move to fully move on from the Mike Vick era
OAK - Darren McFadden: Al Davis, what elses did you expect. They have a great QB-RB tandem, but will they have an o-line?
KC - Glenn Dorsey: This is a gift, a great one for a rebuilding franchise. He will help stop the run in the AFC west
NYJ - Vernon Gholston: Good point made on NFLN, he and Jake Long will square off twice a year now. Let's hope Jake Long gets the better of the NFL matchups
NO* - Sedrick Ellis: They really needed a DT and they did a nice job of jumping Cincinatti
JAX* - Derrick Harvey: They gave up a lot, but if they feel DE is their only missing piece from a Super Bowl, then they got a good one
CIN - Keith Rivers: They had to settle for a different USC star, they are probably upset
NE - Jerod Mayo: I thought they would go CB or O-line, but this is a solid pick. Their LB's need some youth and athleticism
BUF - Leodis McKelvin: First CB off the board and a good one. He will help in the return game with Roscoe Parrish.
DEN - Ryan Clady: He should help protect Jay Cutler, solid pick
CAR - Jonathan Stewart: They must really love him, I think Mendenhall is a better RB
CHI - Chris Williams: They could have gone QB but o-line will help their poor QB situation
KC* - Branden Albert: He shot up the draft boards and is a great piece for their offensive line
ARI - Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie: Great pick.
DET - Gosder Cherilus: This is the first WTF?!? moment of the draft. Should have been someone else.
BAL - Joe Flacco: They must really love him because they could have had many options at #26. He's a great prospect but is a work in progress
CAR - Jeff Otah: They are rebuilding that power running game but they gave up way too much in that trade

*Pick acquired via trading up

Miami Acquires Akin Ayodele & Anthony Fasano

2008-04-26T10:23:00.006-04:00

It has been reported that the Miami Dolphins and Dallas Cowboys have made a trade. Miami has sent their 4th round pick (#100 overall), to Dallas for LB Akin Ayodele and TE Anthony Fasano. When I first heard this, I was perplexed and didn't believe the report. It seems like the Cowboys were giving them away for practically nothing. From the Dolphins perspective, it's a great trade. Instead of using that 4th pick today on a player who may or may not make it in the NFL, we gave it away for linebacker who has shown he can be a consistent NFL player and a tight end who just two years ago was drafted in the second round, but can't get much playing time behind a pro-bowler on the depth chart. I expect Akin Ayodele to come in and compete for an ILB starting spot with Channing Crowder and Reggie Torbor. Right now I'd say it's a toss up as to who will be the one left out. Whichever two perform the best in training camp and the preseason will be the starters. As for Anthony Fasano, he may be the favorite to win the starting job at tight end. There are more players on the roster to compete with but he should be the best. I'll provide more analysis on this transaction and all of our draft picks and transactions when the weekend is complete. I'll also be pseudo-live blogging the draft, providing quick thoughts on each pick and short analysis of all of Miami's moves. That can be found in the post above this or by clicking here.

Jake Long Agrees To Contract

2008-04-22T13:08:00.006-04:00

The Deal

The Dolphins have agreed to terms with Jake Long and he will be made the number one pick in this year's draft. Reportedly the deal is for $57.75 million over five years, with $30 million of that being guaranteed. It is good to now that a deal is done and we won't have a lengthy hold out, like last year's Jamarcus Russell. Jake Long wasn't my number one choice, but he was number two and I am content with this decision. He fills our biggest position of need, and projects to be a great player. I also think he doesn't have much bust potential. The worst that could happen is that he just isn't the best left tackle and will have to play on the right side. One, I don't think it will happen and two, even if it does, he will dominate that side.

Our Offensive Line

With our biggest hole in the roster now filled, it make our offensive line shape up pretty nicely. Four out of the five spots seem to be assured. It looks like this:

LT: Jake Long
LG: Justin Smiley
C: Samson Satele
RG: to be determined
RT: Vernon Carey

There is always a thought that Satele could move to guard and then our vacancy would be at center. Some candidates to fill the vacancy are Drew Mormino, Trey Darilek, Ike Ndukwe, or anybody we may draft on day two.

What Do We Do Now?

Barring a crazy scenario involving trading Jake Long, it is time to focus on our next pick (#32 overall) which is also very important. Here are a couple ideas on who might be that second round pick.

First Theory: It will be a guy who inexplicably falls out of the first round. Every year there is at least one player who, for no reason, isn't selected in the first round, even though he was though of to be a consensus first round pick. Hopefully management has done their homework on guys who are expected to be late first rounders, so if some become available, we can make the steal.
Second Theory: Miami will make it an all-big blue first day of the draft and select Chad Henne. Word has it that the Dolphins love this guy and considering there is no proven quarterback on the roster, they could better their odds by grabbing another second rounder at the position.
Third Theory: Your guess is as good as mine. It was hard enough to predict the first pick in the draft. Trying to prognosticate who will go thirty-second is immensely difficult. With our biggest position need filled, it can be any position and any number of prospects.

We Are Not Dead: Schedule Release More Important Than Draft News

2008-04-15T10:57:00.008-04:00

I know we have been inactive here at TG&T for over a month but honestly, is our draft situation really much different than it was one month ago? The only real significant news is that the organization is resigned to having to select someone number one and not trading that pick. It also appears that Matt Ryan is not on their big board anymore. It still looks like a battle between Jake Long, Chris Long, and Vernon Gholston. It has been made aware that the Dolphins are currently negotiating with Jake Long. Supposedly he has been offered a deal which is less than last year's number one pick, Jamarcus Russell.

As for my opinion. I would select Chris Long. I would be perfectly content though if Jake Long is the pick. I do have some reservations about Vernon Gholston though. If he is a cheap option, I guess it's worth it, but he has bust potential.

One more draft tidbit for you. I can't believe the, "Dolphins should pass on #1 and fall down to #3-5 theory," has actually been written and talked about by big media outlets. It's the dumbest idea, it won't happen, and like I said, I can't believe it has gotten so much coverage as if it's an actual strategy that may be employed. If you haven't heard about what this idea is, consider yourself lucky to not have wasted a minute of brain time trying to dissect it.

On to the major news of the day, the official 2008 NFL schedules were announced today. I love how it has become such an event with NFL Network and ESPN having special shows for the unveiling. We have known every team's opponents for some time now. Is the order of the schedule really that significant? No. The order of opponents won't drastically change a teams strength of schedule. The only important thing to come out of the release is who will be playing on Sunday and Monday nights. Anyway, here is the Dolphins schedule.

1		New York Jets	Sun. 1:00pm
2	at	Arizona Cardinals	Sun. 4:15pm
3	at	New England Patriots	Sun. 1:00pm
4		BYE
5		San Diego Chargers	Sun. 1:00pm
6	at	Houston Texans	Sun. 1:00pm
7		Baltimore Ravens	Sun. 1:00pm
8		Buffalo Bills	Sun. 1:00pm
9	at	Denver Broncos	Sun. 4:05pm
10		Seattle Seahawks	Sun. 1:00pm
11		Oakland Raiders	Sun. 1:00pm
12		New England Patriots	Sun. 1:00pm
13	at	St. Louis Rams	Sun. 1:00pm
14	at	Buffalo Bills (in Toronto)	Sun. 4:05pm
15		San Francisco 49ers	Sun. 1:00pm
16	at	Kansas City Chiefs	Sun. 1:00pm
17	at	New York Jets	Sun. 1:00pm

At first glance, I saw the four road games out of our last five and thought the NFL screwed us again, especially when I saw that two of those December road games were cold weather sites Buffalo and New York. Then I noticed that the Buffalo game will actually be in Toronto (so the Dolphins can showcase their inability to another country, again!) which will be in a dome. Also, all those road games at the back and front end of the schedule mean that the meat of our season will have six home games in eight weeks. I kind of like that. Anyway, what does it really matter? We aren't supposed to do good are we?

3/2/08 Week In Review: Part One, Free Agency

2008-03-02T16:42:00.005-05:00

Friday was the start of free agency. The Dolphins must have thought it was the start and finish of free agency for how much they were involved. The following is a list of players that have officially been acquired by Miami, and my thoughts.

Justin Smiley, G: This was the first signing occurring shortly after midnight. The Dolphins didn't appear to make any attempt at Alan Faneca because he has a large price tag (record large, actually). Smiley was still expensive but will be a valuable piece in our offensive line. He will replace Rex Hadnot at RG and hopefully give our backfield lot's of holes to run through.

Justin Ferguson, NT: He was acquired via trade with Dallas. We gave up our 6th round pick in 2009 (Also, we will swap 6th rounders this year). He's the oldest of the new players but still only 33. This move makes it pretty clear we are going to play a 3-4 defense and he will be the NT. This was a small price to pay for a big (literally) need. He has the prototypical size for a NT that no one currently on the roster has.

Reggie Torbor, LB: I love this signing. Torbor was a backup for the New York Giants but started the last nine games (including the Super Bowl) due to injuries. He filled in nicely and has earned this payday. He will have to compete for a starting job but will be the favorite to earn the other ILB spot alongside Channing Crowder. He is young and has the size that Parcells likes.

Randy Starks, DE/NT: He has high upside but hasn't shown a lot yet. I'm not quite sure if he will split time with Ferguson at NT or if he is versatile enough to play the DE spot. We will probably have to wait until training camp and the preseason to see how he will be used. Once again, he has the youth, size, and potential that the seems to be the theme of our pickups

Ernest Wilford, WR: I am content with this. Miami couldn't afford to spend big money on a receiver with so many other needs, so paying medium range for an average player is fine with me. We need a big physical receiver to go along with Ginn and Wilford can provide that. I'd still like to see us address this position in the draft, however.

Josh McCown, QB: He is no Daunte Culpepper or Trent Green. We won't expect him to come lead the franchise. He is getting paid the amount backup quarterbacks make and is not a huge investment. He will compete for the starting job with John Beck and a draft pick to be named later (He's actually probably the favorite to win, this year).

Charlie Anderson, LB: He was cheap and has some upside. He played on the outside for Houston but could probably play anywhere in a 3-4. He won't start but will definitely see the field some. At least he upgrades our special teams unit, which we really needed.

Sean Ryan, TE: Jeff Ireland drafted him in 2004 in Dallas. He has spent tha last two years on the Jets and hasn't really much. He has some potential but will have to compete to earn a spot. The Dolphins will probably run a lot of two tight end formations so if he can block well he should make an impact.

As of right now the only free agent that played for the Dolphins in 2007 that has signed elsewhere is Cleo Lemon. He joins Jacksonville as their backup quarterback and it seems like a good fit. He is an upgrade over their previous reserve Quinn Gray.

Memo to Management: Trade for Vilma

2008-02-26T16:30:00.003-05:00

This is simple, trade Jason Taylor for Jonathan Vilma, straight up. We are most likely going to trade JT anyway, so why not acquire an established player, rather than a draft pick who we may or may not hit on. Jonathan Vilma was the defensive rookie of the year in 2004 and a pro bowler in 2005. He had a productive 2006 and was on his way to a nice 2007 before a season ending knee injury. He would fill in nicely and make up for the loss of Zach Thomas. He is better than any of our current options at middle linebacker. I can already hear people arguing that Channing Crowder is. Well, I don't think so. I like Crowder on the outside. And if we run a 3-4, we can play him and Vilma in the middle. Also Vilma grew up in Miami and went to the University of Miami, so there is no question that he would want to play here. Also, a lot of the Dolphins supporters who are also 'Canes fans would love to finally have a great player from The 'U' on our team. He would be a fan favorite. This is a no brainer, make it happen.

Chris Long Owns The Combine

2008-02-25T14:52:00.004-05:00

The title says it all. Chris Long had a great morning in Indianapolis. I could list all his numbers from the different drills and while they are very impressive, they don't do justice to how good he looked. He looked like a super athletic, highly motivated, smooth football player. He had great speed in the 40 yard dash, but to be honest, when is he ever going to run 40 yards in a straight line. What I liked was his change of direction in the position specific drills. It was smooth and effortless while still being extremely quick and agile. Simply put, you can tell he has the genes of a football player. I think today's performance solidifies him as a top five pick and will make it even more likely that Miami would select him number one overall. Still, the best case scenario for the Dolphins is to trade an acquire at least another pick, but with the likelihood of trading seemingly becoming less and less, I would be 100% happy with Chris Long in a Dolphins uniform rushing the passer (perhaps along side Jason Taylor, how sick would that be?) Below are some NFL.com video links.

Chris Long: NFL Scouting Combine Highlights

Chris Long: Game Film and Analysis by Mike Mayock

Update: Yet Again, I Was MIA

2008-02-23T10:41:00.001-05:00

Well I'll be honest, I have been way too busy to be updating here. What I will try to do for the next several weeks is to do one mega post one the weekend which will include all the news from the previous week, and a few things to look for in the upcoming week. For now, let me recap things that have happened since my last post.

Dolphins Make Roster Cuts

On February 11th, Miami cut several players including regular starters Trent Green, Marty Booker, LJ Shelton, and Keith Traylor. Green and Traylor were no surprise as their age and injury concerns obviously don't belong in this rebuilding process. Booker hasn't been terrible but also has never really elevated his game and he drops a lot of balls. Shelton was a Nick Saban guy who just never really took off either. Bottom line is, when the team goes 1-15, no one can make a real argument for why they should still have a roster spot.

Another Cut, Zach Thomas

On February 14th the 'Phins cut Zach Thomas. As a fan, it was obviously a sad day. Zach was the face of the defense for his twelve years and the face of the team since Marino retired. Even though we all knew this was coming, when it actually happened it was still upsetting. Unfortunately, from a business perspective, his age, condition, and output, just don't match the type of money he was due to make. By cutting him, we also give him an opportunity to go to any team that wants him so he can try to make the playoffs and perhaps win a ring as the final chapter of his NFL career. I wish him the best of luck, as long as he isn't wearing a Patriots uniform.

Michael Lehan Resigned

This was a little surprising to me. For our CB situation for next year, I was thinking we would use an early (probably second) round draft pick on one. This years pool of corners are very deep and we can get great value with either our 32nd, 57th, or even 64th overall pick. Then we would probably play Will Allen with the draft pick as our starters with Lehan or somebody else playing as the backup and nickel corner. The money Lehan will make however, is significant and it looks like he will be a starter. I still believe it is a need though, and we should grab one of the young studs to either split time, or be a backup for the first year.

Huizenga Sells 50% of Team

This news came out yesterday. Miami Dolphins owner Wayne Huizenga has sold half of the team and the stadium to New York real estate big shot Stephen Ross. The idea was not surprising but the timing is. Huizenga had hinted about a possible sale but it seemed like it was a ways away. The right offer came though and now Ross owns half the team. Huizenga will still be the primary owner and the managing general partner who will have the final say in everything. This is more like owner in training for the time being. Things really shouldn't be much different.

Draft News

There are so many rumors and little nuggets of information flying around these days it make my head spin. Something that is of a little importance to Miami was the coin flip for picks 3-5 yesterday. Atlanta won and will select third. I'm not quite sure if that hurts or helps in our effort to trade the #1 pick. They are closer to us and it will cost them less to trade up, but now it's really only between us and them. If they don't believe we will take Matt Ryan, then there is no reason to trade.

Rumor has it that Miami is in love with Chris Long, and why not? He might as well walk around with a shirt that declares him a "Bill Parcells Football Player." I believe he is the number one sought after target of Miami and if no trade happens, he could be the #1 pick.

Site Plugs

You may have seen some of the links on the right to other Dolphins sites. I recommend going to the following ones during the week to get Dolphins news and opinions

Phin Phanatic - The lead blogger Brian Miller knows his stuff and is always on top of the latest news and rumors.

Miami Dolphins Spotlight - Chris Nelson covers all roster moves and transaction and does very informative videos to go along with his posts.

The Baltimore Ravens Season In Under 200 Words

2008-02-11T09:12:00.000-05:00

Preseason Thoughts

I thought they would earn a wild card spot or fall just short. Boy, was I wrong! Dead wrong.

Season Recap

Promising 4-2 start
Turns out they beat bad teams and gave fans false hope
Bad luck and poor coaching leads to a nine game losing streak, including the most embarrassing loss of the year to 1-15 Miami
Salvaged pride (or hurt draft position) with week 17 win over Pittsburgh

Grade

D- : They took a major step back this season and added their name to the list of "Those Teams That Lost to a 1-15 Team." It really could be an "F" but they did win five and should've beaten the Patriots.

Needs to Improve

Divisional Play: They went 1-5, with the one being the aforementioned week 17 game
Finishing Games: They should've beaten the Browns, Pats & 'Phins
Not Neglect an Aging Defense: They are getting old. Don't let them fall off the deep end like Miami did.

The Cincinnati Bengals Season in Under 200 Words

2008-02-10T21:26:00.000-05:00

Preseason Expectation

I thought they would win eight or nine games and may sneak into the playoffs.

Season Recap

Started out a terrible 1-4
Had a chance to make up some ground but instead fell to 3-7
Finished strong winning four out of six
Had a big win against Cleveland, which basically knocked them out of the playoffs
The defense was bad, terrible actually
Carson Palmer continued to be an elite quarterback
Some guy wearing #85 had a below average season, is disgruntled, and wants to be traded

Grade

C- : This was going to be a much worse grade until that late season surge. For the first half of the season they were the surprise disappointment. We keep waiting for that defense to get good and it hasn't.

Needs to Improve

Uh, The Defense: This one is pretty obvious
Running Game: They were near the bottom in yards per game and yards per carry
Playing Better Against Good Teams: They played five games against playoff teams and only won once

Upcoming Schedule For TG&T

2008-02-10T20:44:00.000-05:00

Well, it's the offseason, and even though the NFL Draft and its unmatched hype is approaching, it is still two and a half months away. To fill the the time I will present a series titled "The (insert team name here) Season, In Under 200 Words." For each team, I will review my preseason expectation, recap their season, give them a grade, and mention the major areas needed for improvement. I'll do all the teams from a given division in a day in a random order I drew out of a hat (I made it so I alternated NFC and AFC days however).

Monday 2/11: AFC North
Tuesday 2/12: NFC South
Wednesday 2/13: AFC West
Thursday 2/14: NFC West
Friday 2/15: AFC East
Monday 2/18: NFC North
Tuesday 2/19: AFC South
Wednesday 2/20: NFC East

Thursday 2/21: Recap of both conferences and my first ever divisional power rankings

Friday 2/22: The final 2007 power rankings

18-1

2008-02-04T09:37:00.000-05:00

They did it. The Giants won. The Patriots perfect 19-0 season was not realized. They finally lost one. Not only that, they lost the wrong one. An 18-0 team, which could have wound up being the best professional sports team I've ever seen, was just a couple minutes away, and failed. We know how Miami fans everywhere feel so there is no need to discuss the happiness, relief, pride, you name it feeling that we all feel. We all owe a lot of thanks to the New York Giants. The Dolphins surely weren't in a position this year to protect that record for themselves. We had to hope that in the other seventeen games against fourteen different opponents that somehow they would wind up on the wrong end of the scoreboard after sixty minutes. The Giants, in their second try, did it. It wasn't a fluke, or lucky. They beat the Patriots. Thank you Giants.

MVP

Eli Manning won the official MVP and I'm not suggesting he shouldn't have, but mine goes to the Giants front four. They beat up the Patriots offensive line. Sure there were some schemes and blitzes, but for the most part it was several one on one fights that the Giants dominated.

Unsung Heroes

The Giants secondary did an outstanding job. Sure you can get pressure on the quarterback, but you still have cover real well and make plays when the ball is in the air. The Patriots weren't able to throw the ball down the field like they were so comfortable doing the rest of the season.
Jeff Feagles had a great game punting the football. He had a big 55 yard bomb in the first half and the other three resulted in Patriots drives starting at the 10, 11 and 20 yard lines.

Goat of the Game

The decision not to kick a field goal. In the third quarter the Patriots went for a 4th and 13, rather than attempt a 49 yard field goal. I thought it was a bad decision at the time and it becomes more stupid the longer you think about it. They lost the game by three. They never really moved the ball effectively. The kick was not 50+ yards. It was in a dome. It wasn't 4th and short, it was 4th and long. You need to kick that field goal.

It will be a long offseason for New England.

The Official Super Bowl XLII Prediction

2008-02-01T14:44:00.000-05:00

I am going to be honest. I can't bring myself to pick the Patriots. It is probably the most illogical pick I have ever made but I am taking the Giants to win outright. I can't support this belief with many facts but I am just praying that the Giants can somehow get it done. Best of luck to them.

Giants 31, Patriots 28

Possible First Overall Pick - The Sleepers

2008-02-01T09:54:00.000-05:00

As Bill Parcells said in his opening press conference, they will not pay attention to mock drafts or listen to any supposed experts in trying to determine who to select number one. This opens the possibility of a surprise player that most people would believe would be picked later. Here are a few who could fit that bill.

Darren McFadden (RB, Arkansas)

At the end of they day, McFadden is the best player in the draft. You can also argue that he plays the 2nd most important position on offense, perhaps even the entire team. Running Backs handle the ball a lot and even though you can find them seemingly everywhere, they are very valuable, especially if you have one with the god given extraordinary talent that Darren has. The affect that Adrian Peterson had on the Vikings offense is fresh in the minds of everyone, and this is a copycat league. Whenever a player breaks out as a superstar, teams look for the next "that guy." Keep in mind that many people have said and continue to say that McFadden is better that Peterson. We can talk all day about Miami's RB's and how it's not really a need, but so many times the top few picks are based on best player available, not need. There is also a possibility that the 'Phins could "hijack" McFadden by taking him and trying to trade him. Obviously Dallas is interested, but keep an eye on Atlanta. If they are picking and Matt Ryan and Darren McFadden are off the board, they are in big trouble. They could panic and offer a good trade.

Vernon Gholston (DE/OLB, Ohio St.)

He is an interesting prospect. He played DE in the 4-3 at Ohio St. He is projected as one of those DE/OLB hybrids that depending on the system could play either position. To be honest, in the 3-4 the Dolphins are likely to run, he seems like a great option at OLB. He has the big size and good speed that Parcells likes, plus hes from a big time college program. He is a great pass rusher which is important with the possibility of not having Jason Taylor. In fact, if he is selected then Jason Taylor would probably be traded later in the draft if he hasn't been already.

Sedrick Ellis (DT, USC)

In case you didn't notice, I wrote an extended post about Ellis over at Phin Phanatic. You chould check it out here. To be short, he had a great Senior Bowl and is shooting up the draft boards. He seems more ready to play NT than Glenn Dorsey, which makes him a likely pick if we are going for an interior lineman. The closer we get, the more I like Sedrick Ellis and wouldn't be surprised if we pick him.

Possible First Overall Pick - Chris Long (DE, Virginia)

2008-02-01T09:53:00.000-05:00

This piece is about Chris Long, who I believe is the most likely player to be selected by the Miami Dolphins with the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft.

(image courtesy of virginiasports.com)

Why He Might Be Chosen

Chris Long is an outstanding player on the defensive line. Another main reason why I think he is more likely to be selected than Glenn Dorsey is that he played in a 3-4 in college and won't require any transition to a slightly different position. He was a dominate pass rusher which is something you see more from ends in the 4-3. He was also great at penetrating into the backfield and stopping rushes for losses. He makes a lot of negative yardage big plays, something the Dolphins defense didn't do much this year. We know how bad Miami's run defense was last year, and Long is a player who will make an immediate impact. Also, like Dorsey, he can stay on the field in passing situations because he is a great pass rusher too.

There are two other things that Chris Long has going for him. First, he is Howie Long's son. Parcells and Ireland have stated several times that they want highly competitive and passionate players. Chris Long is and so was his dad. The name recognition was a big help getting him noticed. Also, his college coach, Al Groh, is a Bill Parcells guy. We've seen how the coaching staff has been assembled with people Parcells is familiar with and this top pick could be no exception.

Why He Might Not Be Chosen

As great as he is, Glenn Dorsey is still slightly better. Plus, in the 3-4 defense, nose tackle is slighty more important than the defensive ends. Chris Long strikes me as a player who if addded to an already good team could be the final piece of the puzzle to put them over the top. I just don't know if he is the kind of foundation for a young team starting an entire rebuilding process. That role is better suited for Dorsey.

The offense may be viewed as more of a need. Early in the season I thought for sure the Dolphins were going to be drafting a lot of defensive players. Our offense was showing progress but the defense fell off the deep end. As the year went on the defense showed some improvement but the offense kept getting worse.

Overall Thoughts

I expect this to happen. Parcells will want to build the defense and Chris Long seems like a perfect option to fit right in to his plans. It wouldn't be my first choice but I'd be happy with it. He would instantly inject life into our front seven, who had very little of it for the majority of the season. He is a high motor guy and hopefully his energy would invigorate some of the other players.

Update: I've been MIA

2008-01-28T10:15:00.000-05:00

I have been missing in action since Wednesday. The last half of last week I was really busy and over the weekend I got sick. In fact, I am still under the weather and very medicated. Anyway, in case you didn't know (which is likely because I didn't really announce it) I've started writing at Phin Phanatic. I am what is called a "Blog Contributor," meaning I post around once or twice a week. This week our "Lead Blogger" is in Arizona for the Super Bowl. That means the smaller contributors will have to post more to keep the site up to date. I am trying to post at least once a day this week to cover and since I am sick and short on time, I probably won't be posting much here. I'll try to finish up the draft series and get those up sometime today or tonight but for the rest of the week you should check out Phin Phanatic. It's a good site, and they actually have similar sites for most NFL teams. So if you're not a Miami fan, you can check out your team's blog. That's it for now. Have a good week.

Possible First Overall Pick - Glenn Dorsey (DT, LSU)

2008-01-23T09:46:00.001-05:00

This piece is about Glenn Dorsey, who I believe is the second most likely player to be selected by the Miami Dolphins with the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft.

(image courtesy of espn.com)

Why He Might Be Chosen

Glenn Dorsey is one of, if not the best defensive players to come out in recent years. He is a very disruptive force in the trenches and could immediately contribute to a Miami run defense which was abysmal last year. Our biggest problem last year was our defensive linemen getting dominated up front and not putting our linebackers in position to make tackles near the line of scrimmage. Dorsey could be an excellent two-gapper who can take up space allowing others to thrive or penetrate and make tackles in the backfield. He is also a very skilled pass rusher from the middle and could contribute on passing downs as well.

We all know Bill Parcells' priority is fielding a good defense. Dorsey is the best defensive player in the draft is rated either number one or two in most "experts" big board. This would be a very logical selection. So much so, that about 90% of the mock drafts I have looked at have us taking him. Most fans are expecting him to be chosen and even though he doesn't play a sexy position most of them would be content if this happened. This would be the equivalent of if the Dolphins drafted Brady Quinn last year. Why do you do it? Because you are supposed to (Cam didn't get that memo).

Why He Might Not Be Chosen

Mainly, there are questions of how he would function in a 3-4 defense, rather than the traditional 4-3 he played in college. Is he big enough to be a true nose tackle or would we have to play him at defensive end? We really won't know until we try it out. That is a substantial risk for a guy who would be taken first overall. It would be much easier to draft guys who have played in a 3-4 or are the prototypical size for those positions.

Other than that, there really aren't many reasons not to draft him. Some may say he has some nagging injuries, but it probably just seems so because he never took time off and kept playing hurt. Also, he suffered the knee injury on a vicious cheap shot chop block which he couldn't avoid. To be honest, this is the most common sense selection, and if he isn't chosen it is because Parcells don't subscribe to conventional wisdom (which he has earned the right to do so).

Overall Thoughts

If he is selected, the transition from DT in the 4-3 to NT in the 3-4 will be a challenge. I believe he would overcome it though. Vince Wilfork of the Patriots didn't play NT in college but he has transitioned just fine. He is a little bit bigger, but not by much. Dorsey is one of the few can't miss prospects in this draft and it's hard to imagine him being a bust, wherever he goes.

I'd be very content and pretty excited about this pick. In fact, if it were up to me right now, I would draft him number one overall. Whether we play a 4-3 or a 3-4 or a hybrid is irrelevant. Glenn Dorsey is a great football player, not a great defensive tackle. Also, he has a good track record and is a high character guy and you know the new boss wants a lot of those guys.

Possible First Overall Pick - Jake Long (OT, Michigan)

2008-01-22T23:46:00.000-05:00

This piece is about Jake Long, who I believe is the third most likely player to be selected by the Miami Dolphins with the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft.

(image courtesy of athlonsports.com)

Why He Might Be Chosen

Offensive Linemen are a pretty good bet in the top of the draft. Their have been far fewer busts from those positions than the skill positions. The Dolphins offensive line was pretty good last year and at times played real well. The addition of a solid tackle would further solidify this area and our men up front would be very promising.

Also, it would be much cheaper than selecting a skill position player. If we choose a QB, WR, etc. we will be dishing out a lot of guaranteed money on a player who could either be a supserstar or total dud. Last year, Joe Thomas, the stud OT drafted third overall got a five year deal for $42 million. The second overall pick, WR Calvin Johnson, got a six year deal for $55 million. We could save a lot of our cap space by choosing an offensive linemen.

Why He Might Not Be Chosen

The offensive tackle position is pretty deep in this draft. Just behind Jake Long there are other great options including Ryan Clady, Sam Baker, and Jeff Otah just to name a few. If Jake Long isn't significantly better than the rest, then why select him number one? We have the 32nd, 56th, and 64th selections as well, and if OT is a big need, we can find great value in the second and third rounds.

Drafting offensive linemen isn't exactly popular among average fans. The smart football minded fans (I'd like to consider myself one of those) realizes that these players are very crucial to having success on the offensive side of the ball. But, if he is selected and the team continues to really struggle, there is a good chance there will be a public outcry when some of the skill position players that we passed on are putting up great numbers. Now I don't think Parcells and Company really care about the public opinion, but they also know what it will be, and they may want to avoid it

Overall Thoughts

I'd be content with this selection. I wouldn't be too thrilled but I would understand how this can really help the team. If you asked me what side of the ball we should draft number one, I'd say defense. If you told me it had to be offense, I'd probably take a skill position player. I think it'd be better for us to look for an OT in the second or third round, like discussed earlier.

If he is selected, there will be an interesting decision that needs to be made. Vernon Carey was moved to LT last year and I thought he did pretty well. With one full year under his belt I think he could do even better. Jake Long, however, plays LT and plays it damn well himself. Would they move Carey back to RT or would they make the rookie do it? In my opinion I'd start off with Carey at LT and Long at RT. Jake Long was an excellent run blocker, but if there is any weakness in his game it is facing speed pass rushers like Vernon Gholston. I'd move him to the right and rely more on his biggest strength rather than his minor weakness.

Possible First Overall Pick - Matt Ryan (QB, Boston College)

2008-01-21T13:30:00.000-05:00

This piece is about Matt Ryan, who I believe is the fourth most likely player to be selected by the Miami Dolphins with the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft.

(image courtesy of si.com)

Why He Might Be Chosen

Bill Parcells believes the first step to having success in this league is acquiring talent. There is no question that the most valuable position to a team is the quarterback. You must have a talented QB to win. Look back at the Super Bowl winners. Very rarely did a team win with a QB that was considered average or below average. Most of them were won by players who would be classified as great or legendary.

You could also look at Bill Parcells history and see how important quarterbacks are to his rebuilding process. In his first year with New England, he selected Drew Bledsoe first overall and in a matter of a couple years the team was good again and played in a Super Bowl. Later in Parcells' carreer, he would rely on guys like Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Bledsoe again, and Testaverde again. All three are tall, tough, and have a strong arm. Matt Ryan does resemble these players in both physical and mental attributes. I wouldn't be surprised to see him drafted in the hopes he performs like Bledsoe did his first few years.

Why He Might Not Be Chosen

To say evaluating quarterback talent in the draft is an inexact science is an understatement. Sometimes you hit a home run (Troy Aikman, Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer, to name a few) and sometimes you strike out (Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf and David Carr, to name a few). No matter how much studying and projecting is done, it is impossible to predict how great or poor a QB prospect is.

The price attached to a #1 draft pick is enormous these days. Add on top of that, the position he plays is the most important and highest paid in the game, you have yourself a very big price tag on a player who hasn't played a snap in the NFL. Also, levels of hype and expectation that are unmatched are given to quarterbacks who are first overall selections. It is very difficult to produce immediately and please fans who are impatient.

Overall Thoughts

Originally, I was like most Miami fans in believing that we shouldn't even contemplate picking a quarterback until the later rounds. We do have an investment in John Beck, who was a second round pick and wasn't put in a good chance to succeed this year. There are numerous other holes for the team to fill and they should be addressed before the QB spot.

But, I would understand why Parcells might take Ryan and to be honest, I wouldn't be too upset. He has a high ceiling, as some would say, and I could see him being a great player in the NFL. The one thing I would hope for is that he plays right away. If he is your quarterback for the future, get him in there, let him take his lumps, and let him work through them. The team is going nowhere next year and they can't be as unlucky as last season and threaten to be the first 0-16 team. Play for 2009.

Finally, in the event of a trade. I think Matt Ryan's chancing of being a Dolphin would increase. I think he is highly coveted but the franchise doesn't want to select him number one overall and pay him that money when they can select later in the top fifteen and pay him less.

Upcoming Schedule For TG&T

2008-01-20T10:57:00.000-05:00

This week I will do a series looking forward to the NFL draft. I will countdown the four prospects I believe are most likely to be selected with the first overall pick. This isn't necessarily my big board or how I think they should be ranked, it is just a ranking of the probability they will be taken.

Monday: 4th most likely
Tuesday: 3rd most likely
Wednesday: 2nd most likely
Thursday: The most likely
Friday: Sleepers and possibilities of trading down

Conference Championship Game Predictions

2008-01-18T13:55:00.000-05:00

San Diego @ New England

I really want to believe the Chargers will win but I just can't. It's going to take a perfect game for them to accomplish that and with injuries and uncertainties it will be near impossible. There is a high likelihood that the game will be close and that San Diego may even lead as late as the early 4th quarter. The Patriots, however, are perfect, and they will find a way to overcome. The only hope for Chargers supporters is that reality imitates fantasy and Billy Volek plays like the end of 2004 and LT plays like all of 2006. Patriots 35, Chargers 21

New York @ Green Bay

Again, I really want to pick an upset but just can't bring myself to do it. The Giants have been on a very impressive run, but it ends here. This their third straight week on the road and sixth in the last eight weeks. Add in the frigid temperatures and it should make for a tough day for New York. The magical season of Brett Favre continues and he gets a February date with Tom Brady in Phoenix. Packers 28, Giants 17

Tony Sparano Hired

2008-01-16T09:54:00.000-05:00

Tony Sparano has officially been hired as the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. He was offered the job early this morning and soon after accepted it. The Dolphins held an official press conference around noon. You can watch the video of it by going to the team's official website.

This is a good hire for Miami. They really need someone like Bill Parcells to coach the team, but since he doesn't want to coach anymore, having one of his understudy's to do the job is a good fit. From what is being said and written about Sparano, he is a lot like Parcells. He is a no-nonsense guy who works his players hard and demands accountability. Here are some notables from the press conference.

He talked about appreciating his players. This will be big considering the stories about our former coach and how he didn't have good working relationships with some of our players.
He echoed a lot of the same thoughts as Bill Parcells, mainly he likes people with character on the team and in the organization
He talked about developing young players and how it is important to know what you have. This will be huge in the next year because we will have a tremendous amount of young inexperienced players on the roster. He must give them playing time to understand what kind of players than can be. This will be better for the team in the long run.
He talked about the score being "0-0" in terms of evaluating players currently on the roster in terms of talent, potential and character.
Surprisingly, he wasn't asked about the draft. I'm very surprised no one even brought it up, considering it is the biggest day of the year for the franchise.

Overall, I have some good first impressions of the new head coach. He had some of the usual new coach cliches but they were kept to a minimum. He seemed nice but not too nice, tough but not too tough. I look forward to the 'Phins heading in the right direction and improving.

Miami Dolphins 2008 NFL Draft Gameplan

2008-01-12T14:18:00.001-05:00

For the purpose of this discussion I am assuming two things.

Miami will not trade the #1 pick. It is to hard to predict such a scenario because it would most likely happen the day of the draft. Also there is no way to know if a trade would bring us more picks, players, or a combination of both.
Miami will not trade any of their players for draft picks. This is also too hard to forecast. The only way to look ahead to that situation would be to rely on internet rumors, which are hardly ever true.

The key to this year's draft will be our first four picks which are as follows:

1st Round, #1 overall
2nd round, #32 overall
2nd round, #58-63 overall (spot to be determined by San Diego's playoff finish)
3rd round, #64 overall

Because of the lack of talent on our current roster and the quality and depth in this years draft, The guys selected at each of the above spots should be able to come in and start right away, or at least split time depending on the position.

When it comes to team needs, you can list just about every position. I think RB is the only position that is assured of being left alone. Quarterback is also an area that doesn't need to be addressed in these early picks. Here is the breakdown of how I think the picks should be used.

DL or LB
CB or S
OL
WR or TE

This isn't the order I am suggesting. We should use one of the allotted four picks on each one of these areas. The beauty of having many needs is that you don't have to stretch for a player just because you feel like that is your biggest need. Because we need help at so many positions, each of our picks will bring plenty of options.

This draft scenario would provide an instant impact to both offense and defense. On offense we improve the line and add a skill player. For defense we get help for the front seven and in the secondary.

There is one variant however, that I think would be acceptable and is very possible. This involves removing the WR/TE category and replace it by splitting up the DL/LB category. I say this because we know Bill Parcells is more of a defensive minded boss plus our offense has more good young players than the defense.

It should also be discussed that we are most likely going to play a 3-4 defense, now that Parcells is here. He isn't the coach or GM, but has talked so much about those people having the same philosophy as him, and Parcells is a 3-4 guy.

Now I'll briefly discuss each area.

Front Seven (DL or LB)

There is a very good chance this will be addressed with the first overall pick, or a top ten pick if we can trade down. Obviously the big names are Glenn Dorsey and Chris Long, but don't forget about Sedrick Ellis of USC or Vernon Gholston of Ohio St. If we opt to do the variant, where this category is split, I'd look for a linebacker taken with either of our second round picks. I like the idea of a young guy playing along side Zach Thomas in the middle, to learn the game from him.
Secondary (CB or S)

Earlier in the year I thought this was going to be our biggest need. The unit did get a little better though as the season went along. Will Allen was a very underrated corner and Jason Allen finally found a position and spot on the field and played admirably. Also, Yeremiah Bell, who missed the entire season due to an ACL tear, will be back. He had a great 2006 season and we should see him return to form. The guy I like the most is Aqib Talib from Kansas, but we would have to get lucky for him to slide to #32. If not, the CB class is deep and there should be good options throughout the first three rounds.

Offensive Line

Our O-line did play well early in the season but they tailed off towards the end. They deserve a lot of credit for the success of Ronnie Brown and the other backs success but they did break down in pass protection quite a lot. Most likely we will be looking for a tackle. It will then be interesting to see if the person selected plays at RT, or if they replace Vernon Carey at LT and move him over to RT. Jake Long is a guy who could be selected #1 overall or in the top ten if we trade down. I would have no problem with this, he is a beast.

WR or TE

Our players at these positions strike me as the kind of guys who would be selected near the end of a pick up game. Let's be honest, none of them are too great. Ted Ginn and Greg Camarillo showed some promise and should stick around but the others all have issues. Marty Booker has too many drops and the other guys can't get open. The name I'd love to see on the Dolphins is James Hardy from Indiana. He is 6'7", 220 lbs, the perfect big physical receiver we need to go along with Ted Ginn. I pray he falls to that 3rd round pick or we get greedy and take him in the second round.

Divisional Weekend Preview

2008-01-10T20:36:00.000-05:00

Seattle @ Green Bay

First of all, you can't talk about this matchup without mentioning, "We want the ball and we're gonna score!" Now that we got that out of the way, I think this game may be a lot like that one. Both teams have great defenses and it is a cold weather game but for some reason I think the offenses will have success. In the end, its at Lambeau Field and the Packers defense will make the plays when needed. Packers 27, Seahawks 20

Jacksonville @ New England

There has been a lot of talk about the Jaguars being a team who can keep it close and maybe even beat the Pats. As much as I would like for it to happen, I won't believe it until I see it. Jacksonville had trouble when the Steelers went to a spread passing attack last week and that is what the Pats do 90% of the time. They must find a way to keep it a low scoring game because if not, it could get ugly. Patriots 38, Jaguars 17

San Diego @ Indianapolis

This is a rematch of the most peculiar game of the regular season. Peyton Manning threw six interceptions, the Colts gave up a punt return and kick return touchdown, yet they had a chip shot field goal attempt to win it, but missed. Both teams must play MUCH better if they want to win this weekend. The Colts should be more proficient on offense and will win at home. Colts 28, Chargers 13

New York @ Dallas

The Giants are hoping the third time is the charm. I don't think so. A lot has been made about the Cowboys' late season struggle and all the off the field distractions the past couple weeks, but this is a team that just wants to play football. I don't think they will crumble under pressure like last years squad. The Giants should make it a good game but they will come up a few plays short. Cowboys 24, Giants 21

Wildcard Weekend Thoughts & Divisional Matchups Set

2008-01-06T20:00:00.000-05:00

Seattle 35, Washington 14

This was an interesting game. Seattle dominated the first three quarters but Washington was still in it trailing only 13-0. Then the tide turned and the Redskins in a matter of minutes took a 14-13 edge and recovered a kickoff setting up a great opportunity for more points. They missed a field goal though and the momentum was back in the Seahawks favor. The got the go ahead score and iced the game with a couple late pick-sixes.

This game breeds confidence for Seattle. They seem to be hitting on all cylinders and except for that 4 minute stretch early in the 4th quarter they thoroughly dominated one of the NFL's hottest teams. When the game was on the line they made the big plays in the passing game and on defense to seal the deal.

It's a tough blow to the Redskins. This was one they could have had. They had all the momentum in the 4th and were poised to take a four or eight point lead. The missed field goal however really took the wind out of their sails and it was a rather fast decline in the final minutes. Still, we will remember this Washington team for years to come because of their hard fought effort to make the playoffs.

Jacksonville 31, Pittsburgh 29

This was a great NFL playoff game. A fast start, dominating play on the road, a comeback, emotion, this one had it all. It was all Jacksonville for three quarters. They took a 28-10 lead and I thought it was over, but finally the things that happen when you are on the road in the playoffs, happened. The Jaguars turned the ball over and Pittsburgh scored touchdowns on three consecutive possessions. But with the game on the line Jacksonville rediscovered the magic and made the key stop, the fourth down conversion and the game winning field goal.

Those are the kinds of things when you are on one of those magical runs. Whenever a play is absolutely needed, it happens. The Jaguars are certainly the 'it' team right now and I can't wait until next week, where hopefully they will travel to New England and take on Goliath.

For the Steelers, it just wasn't their year. They improved and did accomplish a lot this season, but they will be disappointed. Things might have been different had Willie Parker not been injured, but they just weren't an elite team in the AFC this year.

New York Giants 24, Tampa Bay 14

Things started great for the Buccaneers. They played solid defense and marched down the field for a first quarter touchdown. The next two quarters however, were all Giants. They scored twice in the 2nd quarter to take a 14-7 halftime. The Bucs made a couple of key mistakes in the 3rd quarter starting with fumbling the opening kickoff leading to a Giants field goal. They later turned the ball over again with a poor decision by Jeff Garcia. Early in the 4th quarter the Giants went on a long scoring drive to ice the game.

After a sluggish start New York picked up right where they left off. The defense was swarming and the offense made plays and controlled the game. They will need to raise their level and play another great game though if they want to win in Dallas.

It was a great season for Tampa Bay, but they end up just like Pittsburgh. They just weren't an elite team in the NFC this year. Look for them to get a few more offensive weapons in the offseason.

San Diego 17, Tennessee 6

The Titans played a solid first half, shutting out the Chargers for second time this year. San Diego did a good job not getting away from what they do best. They still committed to the run and knew that eventually they would make the plays in the passing game. Tennessee had a crucial missed field goal early in the 4th quarter that would have made the score 10-9. Instead, the Chargers took the ball down the field and got the game clincher on a 4th and goal plunge by LaDainian Tomlinson.

It was looking like the same recipe for San Diego disappointment in the playoffs. They played a lifeless first half where they had trouble moving the ball. Luckily they got a big turnover to avoid a bigger deficit. If they want to win in Indianapolis they need to play a good game, not a good half.

Not to sound like a broken record, but it was a great season for the Titans. Not many people picked them to win ten games or make the playoffs (myself include). This is a good step for them but they must continue to get better if they want to keep up with the Jaguars and Colts.

Divisional Playoff Games

Seattle @ Green Bay, Saturday 4:30 PM ET

The Seahawks must be more consistent on offense. When they get opportunities they need touchdowns, not field goals. On defense they should stick with aggressive blitzing and creating pressure trying to force some of those Brett Favre mental errors. The Packers will look to start fast and ride the home crowd. They still need to run the ball with the same success they have been having with Ryan Grant to control the game.

Jacksonville @ New England, Saturday 8:00 PM ET

I think this is the game of this round that every neutral fan wanted to see. Other than the Colts, the Jaguars are the best matchup and stand the best chance of slaying the giant that is the Patriots. They must play better in the secondary if they want to win however, they can't allow the big passing plays to New England. For the Patriots, it is simple, just be yourselves.

San Diego @ Indianapolis, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

This is a rematch of a peculiar game from November. The Colts played poorly but then should've won but Vinatieri missed a chip shot. That was in San Diego, this time it is in the RCA Dome. The Chargers will need a sixty minute effort and to capitalize on every opportunity to dethrone the defending Super Bowl Champions.

New York Giants @ Dallas, Sunday 4:30 PM ET

The Giants won't be able to afford starting slow. The defense must create havoc from the first snap and hope that the offense plays efficiently. Dallas' running game will be their biggest friend in this matchup. Their two headed monster in the backfield has tailed off as of late. They need to be productive to take the pressure of Tony Romo.

Cam Cameron Fired

2008-01-03T10:01:00.000-05:00

I am to busy to do a full post but I will be back with my thoughts and more news later tonight. Here's a link to the story.

NFC Wild Card Weekend - Previews and Predictions

2008-01-01T12:30:00.000-05:00

Saturday, 4:30 PM ET
Spread: Seattle by 3.5

Seahawks Offense vs Redskins Defense

Seattle's identity on offense has shifted from a run first, rely on Shaun Alexander attack, to a pass oriented one. They must get a little creative in the rushing attack, perhaps running from some spread sets and that will allow them to be more balanced. The Redskins can thrive if they can force Seattle into a one-dimensional offense but while their secondary is good, they are still young and inexperienced. Look for some big plays in the passing game from Matt Hasselbeck.

Redskins Offense vs Seahawks Defense

I like the look of the Redskins offense. They commit to the run with Clinton Portis and make big plays in the passing game when they are needed, which is the kind of effort you need when you are on the road in the playoffs. Seattle's defense has been great this year but their biggest challenge will be to account for Portis out of the backfield and not to get lulled to sleep in the running game and allow big passing plays. It will be a big advantage if the Seahawks can force turnovers like they have been doing recently.

Intangibles

We all know what Washington has gone through. They are on an inspired run and its no fluke that they are in the playoffs. In the past four weeks they beat two of the competitors for the six-seed (Chicago & Minnesota) and two playoff teams (New York and Dallas). Seattle has a big advantage with the home field. If they can pounce on Washington early it could be a long afternoon for the Redskins.

Prediction

I like Washington to get off to a good start, grab a lead and fend off a late surge from the home team in a tough battle. Redskins 20, Seahawks 17

Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
Spread: Tampa Bay by 3

Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense

The Giants biggest enemy are their own selves. When they aren't successful it's usually because they are dropping passes, turning the ball over or Eli Manning is tacking a 15 yard sack. The key for Tampa Bay will be to shut down the run. If they are having trouble, it will open up play action opportunities for New York, which they excel at. Also for the Bucs, look to disguise coverages on 3rd and long and hope to force some of those "Eli Manning" bad decisions.

Buccaneers offense vs Giants Defense

This one is pretty simple, Tampa Bay must protect the passer. The Giants biggest strength is their pass rush and if they get going, they will be difficult to stop. The Bucs must run the ball effectively and Jeff Garcia can't get greedy. He may have to throw the check downs a lot but if it moves the chains, then no problem. If they do protect Garcia well, then look for him to attack a vulnerable Giants secondary.

Intangibles

The Giants probably don't mind being on the road, where they have won seven straight. The question will for them will be, after their tough inspired play from last week, will they pick up right where they left off or will they be emotionally drained and come out sloppy? The advantage for the Bucs is Jeff Garcia. He's very familiar and has a good track record against the Giants. Is that just a trend or does he really have a leg up?

Prediction

The Giants will play a very sound game and come out on top of a back and forth affair against the unknown Bucs. Giants 27, Buccaneers 20

Updates - Parcells, Mueller, Cameron etc.

2007-12-31T14:48:00.000-05:00

Well it only took until approximately the 16th hour of the offseason for someone to be the first casualty of the Bill Parcells administration.

Randy Mueller was fired this morning. Most people, myself included, believe he deserves the biggest responsibility for the Dolphins downfall. He has only been around since the start of the Nick Saban era, but he has made some bad decisions, particularly in the draft. Just think, if you were an NFL team, and could raid the Dolphins and take any players you wish, who would you grab? Obviously, Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas and Ronnie Brown would be picked, but after that, there aren't many attractive and proven pieces for an NFL roster.

Now lets move on to Cam Cameron.

He will meet with Bill Parcells tomorrow and I can only imagine how uncomfortable that will be. There isn't much of an argument for keeping Cam and I expect he will be fired. For me, this isn't your average, "our coach sucks, we need to get him out of here," situation. I like Cam. I think he's a good guy, and in the right situation could be a pretty good NFL head coach, but not for us. Was it his fault we were crippled with injuries forcing us to play with inferior talent against a difficult schedule? No. But we shouldn't have been "1-15" bad. We should have been at worst, "3-13" and probably more like "4-12" bad.

There are tons of rumors floating around concerning the Dolphins. A recent one, is that the Cowboys VP of College and Pro Scouting, Jeff Ireland, is the target for the now vacant GM position. PFT is even reporting that Dallas has agreed to let us interview him and it is expected he will be hired at some point.

Also, there have been some names mentioned for the head coach position, should it become vacant. The one I've read most is Tony Sparano. He is also currently with the Cowboys serving as their Tight Ends/O-Line coach. Bill Parcells knows him from Dallas and apparently really believes in him. We shall see.

Starting tomorrow I will do a series that analyzes each of our positions (on the field) and describe our level of need for those players in the draft and free agency and also which players on our current roster we should keep. Tomorrow's installment will be about the defensive line. Here's a hint, there will be a lot of talk about this guy

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins - Week 17

2007-12-29T18:15:00.000-05:00

It's always sad to see your team play it's final regular season game when they won't be making the playoffs. It doesn't matter if you are eliminated in the final week, a couple weeks before, or a couple months before, it is the final chance to see them put one in the 'W' column.

The Dolphins have caught a break, if you want to call it that. Because we were so atrocious for the first fifteen games, we are mathematically locked into the #1 draft spot and we (thankfully) do not have to debate the morals of should the team tank or not to improve our draft position.

I believe Miami has a lot going in their favor for this game. First, the Bengals are a mediocre team at best. They had high hopes this season but they forgot that their defense is still no good. They actually remind me a lot of the 2006 Dolphins, lofty expectations, bad start, a couple nice wins but overall a big disappointment.

Also, Cincinnati put all of their effort and emotion into last week's game. They were attempting to defend their home field against a big division rival and deal them a damaging blow to their playoff hopes. They did it, but let's be honest, the Bengals MVP of the game was Derek Anderson, and he plays for the Browns. Now they must try to bottle up that feeling and take it on the road for the final game. I just don't see them coming out and playing a great game.

Miami, on the other hand, does have a big motivating factor. All the players and coaches will be trying to impress the new boss. Joey Porter said when Parcells walked out to watch practice that players were running just a bit faster and coaches were talking just a bit louder. In the end I don't think this will matter for any body's job security because Bill will watch the film from the first fifteen games and see what really went on here. But for this week, they will be trying really hard and should execute.

So in short, I think the Bengals will give the 'Phins a good opportunity to win this one, and with Miami's effort they will actually accept the chance.

Dolphins 24, Bengals 21

Picks Against the Spread - Week 17

2007-12-26T21:12:00.000-05:00

Last week: 9-7
Season to date: 77-85-3

Dolphins this Week

@ Miami (+3) OVER Cincinnati - Miami continues to fight and some players may be playing to impress Bill Parcells. The Bengals played their Super Bowl last week and should be mentally checked out of this game.

Path to Perfection

New England (-14.5) OVER @ New York Giants - I think it'd be rather hilarious if the game that will get the most outrageous TV ratings for an NFL game ever is the only one the Pats happen to lose. It won't happen though.

Game of the Week

Tennessee (-6.5) OVER @ Indianapolis - Nothing against the Colts B Team but the Titans have way too much on the line to lose to them.

The Rest

Buffalo (+7.5) OVER @ Philadelphia
@ Tampa Bay (+3) OVER Carolina
Dallas (+9) OVER @ Washington
@ Green Bay (-3) OVER Detroit
@ Houston (-6.5) OVER Jacksonville
Pittsburgh (-3.5) OVER @ Baltimore
Seattle (+3) OVER @ Atlanta
@ Cleveland (-10) OVER San Francisco
New Orleans (-1) OVER @ Chicago
@ Denver (+3) OVER Minnesota
@ San Diego (-9) OVER Oakland
@ Arizona (-6) OVER St. Louis
@ New York Jets (-6.5) OVER Kansas City

Week 16 - Miami @ New England - A Few Thoughts

2007-12-24T12:02:00.001-05:00

As you probably saw, the Patriots defeated the Dolphins 28-7 yesterday. New England stormed to a 28-0 halftime lead by basically out executing Miami in every phase of the game. In the second half the Dolphins played much better and the Patriots let off the gas which enabled the Dolphins to be the first team this season to hold the Patriots scoreless for an entire half. Here are some quick hit thoughts.

I'm usually not one for "moral victories," especially in professional sports, but Miami should be proud they didn't let this one get out of hand and lose by 40+.
It is still weird however, that a team can win the turnover battle 4-0, lose by 21, and still not be too upset about the defeat. That shows just how good the Pats are and just how bad the 'Phins are.
As with any historically bad team, the Dolphins gave us two more bonehead moments. First, Lance Schulters great job in the secondary reading Tom Brady and getting in perfect position to make an interception, but having the ball go through his hands, without touching them, right into the waiting arms of Jabar Gaffney, who strolled in for an easy score. Also, the Illustrious Cleo Lemon, who on 4th and goal, rolled out, made a nice pump fake to freeze a defender, then ran for the pylon but neglected to either stick out the ball or dive forward resulting in being marked out of bounds one foot short of the goal line. Brilliant.
Again, it's hard to focus on moral victories but Jesse Chatman ran well again, and Lorenzo Booker looked solid as usual. That coupled with the Bill Parcells hiring suggest their is no way we will take Darren McFadden come April.
I don't like comparing a player to anybody but I might start calling Greg Camarillo, "Wes Welker-Lite." He could find a real niche as a slot receiver in the future and unlike Derek Hagan, when the ball is thrown to him, he catches it.
It will be real interesting to see what happens to Jason Taylor. I love the guy and the more this season goes on, the more I want him to stay. I think Miami will have to be blown away by a trade offer (probably a mid-1st or a low 1st coupled with another early round pick) to pull the trigger.

So the Dolphins are 1-14 heading into the final game of the season. It will be a home affair with Cincinnati, who just had a great upset win over Cleveland to dent their hopes of playoffs qualification.