Updates - Parcells, Mueller, Cameron etc.

Well it only took until approximately the 16th hour of the offseason for someone to be the first casualty of the Bill Parcells administration.


Randy Mueller was fired this morning. Most people, myself included, believe he deserves the biggest responsibility for the Dolphins downfall. He has only been around since the start of the Nick Saban era, but he has made some bad decisions, particularly in the draft. Just think, if you were an NFL team, and could raid the Dolphins and take any players you wish, who would you grab? Obviously, Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas and Ronnie Brown would be picked, but after that, there aren't many attractive and proven pieces for an NFL roster.

Now lets move on to Cam Cameron.


He will meet with Bill Parcells tomorrow and I can only imagine how uncomfortable that will be. There isn't much of an argument for keeping Cam and I expect he will be fired. For me, this isn't your average, "our coach sucks, we need to get him out of here," situation. I like Cam. I think he's a good guy, and in the right situation could be a pretty good NFL head coach, but not for us. Was it his fault we were crippled with injuries forcing us to play with inferior talent against a difficult schedule? No. But we shouldn't have been "1-15" bad. We should have been at worst, "3-13" and probably more like "4-12" bad.

There are tons of rumors floating around concerning the Dolphins. A recent one, is that the Cowboys VP of College and Pro Scouting, Jeff Ireland, is the target for the now vacant GM position. PFT is even reporting that Dallas has agreed to let us interview him and it is expected he will be hired at some point.

Also, there have been some names mentioned for the head coach position, should it become vacant. The one I've read most is Tony Sparano. He is also currently with the Cowboys serving as their Tight Ends/O-Line coach. Bill Parcells knows him from Dallas and apparently really believes in him. We shall see.

Starting tomorrow I will do a series that analyzes each of our positions (on the field) and describe our level of need for those players in the draft and free agency and also which players on our current roster we should keep. Tomorrow's installment will be about the defensive line. Here's a hint, there will be a lot of talk about this guy

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins - Week 17

It's always sad to see your team play it's final regular season game when they won't be making the playoffs. It doesn't matter if you are eliminated in the final week, a couple weeks before, or a couple months before, it is the final chance to see them put one in the 'W' column.

The Dolphins have caught a break, if you want to call it that. Because we were so atrocious for the first fifteen games, we are mathematically locked into the #1 draft spot and we (thankfully) do not have to debate the morals of should the team tank or not to improve our draft position.

I believe Miami has a lot going in their favor for this game. First, the Bengals are a mediocre team at best. They had high hopes this season but they forgot that their defense is still no good. They actually remind me a lot of the 2006 Dolphins, lofty expectations, bad start, a couple nice wins but overall a big disappointment.

Also, Cincinnati put all of their effort and emotion into last week's game. They were attempting to defend their home field against a big division rival and deal them a damaging blow to their playoff hopes. They did it, but let's be honest, the Bengals MVP of the game was Derek Anderson, and he plays for the Browns. Now they must try to bottle up that feeling and take it on the road for the final game. I just don't see them coming out and playing a great game.

Miami, on the other hand, does have a big motivating factor. All the players and coaches will be trying to impress the new boss. Joey Porter said when Parcells walked out to watch practice that players were running just a bit faster and coaches were talking just a bit louder. In the end I don't think this will matter for any body's job security because Bill will watch the film from the first fifteen games and see what really went on here. But for this week, they will be trying really hard and should execute.

So in short, I think the Bengals will give the 'Phins a good opportunity to win this one, and with Miami's effort they will actually accept the chance.

Dolphins 24, Bengals 21

Picks Against the Spread - Week 17

Last week: 9-7
Season to date: 77-85-3

Dolphins this Week

• @ Miami (+3) OVER Cincinnati - Miami continues to fight and some players may be playing to impress Bill Parcells. The Bengals played their Super Bowl last week and should be mentally checked out of this game.
  

Path to Perfection

• New England (-14.5) OVER @ New York Giants - I think it'd be rather hilarious if the game that will get the most outrageous TV ratings for an NFL game ever is the only one the Pats happen to lose. It won't happen though.
  

Game of the Week

• Tennessee (-6.5) OVER @ Indianapolis - Nothing against the Colts B Team but the Titans have way too much on the line to lose to them.
  

The Rest

• Buffalo (+7.5) OVER @ Philadelphia
• @ Tampa Bay (+3) OVER Carolina
• Dallas (+9) OVER @ Washington
• @ Green Bay (-3) OVER Detroit
• @ Houston (-6.5) OVER Jacksonville
• Pittsburgh (-3.5) OVER @ Baltimore
• Seattle (+3) OVER @ Atlanta
• @ Cleveland (-10) OVER San Francisco
• New Orleans (-1) OVER @ Chicago
• @ Denver (+3) OVER Minnesota
  
• @ San Diego (-9) OVER Oakland
• @ Arizona (-6) OVER St. Louis
• @ New York Jets (-6.5) OVER Kansas City

Week 16 - Miami @ New England - A Few Thoughts

As you probably saw, the Patriots defeated the Dolphins 28-7 yesterday. New England stormed to a 28-0 halftime lead by basically out executing Miami in every phase of the game. In the second half the Dolphins played much better and the Patriots let off the gas which enabled the Dolphins to be the first team this season to hold the Patriots scoreless for an entire half. Here are some quick hit thoughts.

• I'm usually not one for "moral victories," especially in professional sports, but Miami should be proud they didn't let this one get out of hand and lose by 40+.
• It is still weird however, that a team can win the turnover battle 4-0, lose by 21, and still not be too upset about the defeat. That shows just how good the Pats are and just how bad the 'Phins are.
• As with any historically bad team, the Dolphins gave us two more bonehead moments. First, Lance Schulters great job in the secondary reading Tom Brady and getting in perfect position to make an interception, but having the ball go through his hands, without touching them, right into the waiting arms of Jabar Gaffney, who strolled in for an easy score. Also, the Illustrious Cleo Lemon, who on 4th and goal, rolled out, made a nice pump fake to freeze a defender, then ran for the pylon but neglected to either stick out the ball or dive forward resulting in being marked out of bounds one foot short of the goal line. Brilliant.
• Again, it's hard to focus on moral victories but Jesse Chatman ran well again, and Lorenzo Booker looked solid as usual. That coupled with the Bill Parcells hiring suggest their is no way we will take Darren McFadden come April.
• I don't like comparing a player to anybody but I might start calling Greg Camarillo, "Wes Welker-Lite." He could find a real niche as a slot receiver in the future and unlike Derek Hagan, when the ball is thrown to him, he catches it.
• It will be real interesting to see what happens to Jason Taylor. I love the guy and the more this season goes on, the more I want him to stay. I think Miami will have to be blown away by a trade offer (probably a mid-1st or a low 1st coupled with another early round pick) to pull the trigger.

So the Dolphins are 1-14 heading into the final game of the season. It will be a home affair with Cincinnati, who just had a great upset win over Cleveland to dent their hopes of playoffs qualification.

Picks Against the Spread - Week 16

Last week: 8-8
Season to date: 68-78-3

Dolphins This Week

• @ New England (-21.5) OVER Miami - The Patriots are beatable, but they are also due for a big blowout. The Dolphins may be able to ride their emotional surge into a strong performance and perhaps a close game, but they could also come out flat and fall to 0-6 in the division.
  

Game of the Week

• Washington (+6.5) OVER @ Minnesota - The Vikings can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Saints loss. Minnesota played a bad game against Chicago yet still won. I think that's a sign of how bad the Bears are, not how good the Vikings are. The Redskins are playing real well right now and will continue riding the emotional wave.

The Rest

• @ St. Louis (+9) OVER Pittsburgh
• Dallas (-10.5) OVER @ Carolina
• Cleveland (-3) OVER @ Cincinnati
• Chicago (+9) OVER@ Green Bay
• @ Indianapolis (-7) OVER Houston
• Kansas City (+4.5) OVER @ Detroit
• New York Giants (-3) OVER @ Buffalo
• @ Jacksonville (-13) OVER Oakland
• New Orleans (-3) OVER @ Philadelphia
• Atlanta (+10.5) OVER @ Arizona
• @ San Francisco (+6.5) OVER Tampa Bay
• @ Seattle OVER Baltimore
  
• @ Tennessee (-9) OVER New York Jets
• @ San Diego (-9) OVER Denver
  

AFC Outlook - Week 15

Power Rankings

1. New England - Perfect
2. Indianapolis - Great
   
3. Jacksonville - Smart
   
4. San Diego - Surging
   
5. Cleveland - Determined
   
6. Pittsburgh - Overrated
7. Tennessee - Close
   
8. Houston - Surprising
   
9. Buffalo - Tough
   
10. Denver - Inconsistent
    
11. Cincinnati - Disappointment
    
12. Oakland - Improving
13. Kansas City - Disappearing
    
14. New York Jets - Losers
    
15. Baltimore - Embarrassment
    
16. Miami - Relieved

Playoff Projection

This is what has already been determined.

• The Patriots have clinched the AFC East, a first round bye, and home field advantage throughout, as the number one seed.
• The Colts have clinched the AFC South, and a first round bye, as the number two seed.
• The Chargers have clinched a playoff berth as winners of the AFC West.

Here's how I think it will finish.

1. New England - Clinched
   
2. Indianapolis - Clinched
   
3. San Diego - Clicking on all cylinders
   
4. Cleveland - Surprise of the year
   
5. Jacksonville - Tough out in the playoffs
   
6. Pittsburgh - They won the Super Bowl before as a six seed

The Dolphins Win!!!

In a game where both teams were desperately trying to give the other team the win, Miami finally grabbed in overtime with a game winning 64 yard touchdown pass from Cleo Lemon to Greg Camarillo. Congrats to the players and coaches.

Video here

MVP - I will split it this week between the Booker's. Marty had 8 catches for 88 yards and only one of his trademark drops. Rookie Lorenzo had 6 catches for 60 yards as well as some clutch runs including a 4th and 1 pickup in the red zone.

Surprise - Greg Camarillo. He's been mainly a practice squad and special teams guy. Coming into today he had one catch on the season. He caught three today, all on third downs, all for first downs, and of course the last one being the game winning touchdown.

Goat - Brian Billick. I can now fully understand why my cousin Dewey doesn't like this guy. His second half game management was poor. In my, and most peoples opinions, he should have gone for the win on the 4th and inch on the final play. Also, there were two plays that should have been challenged that weren't. They may not have won them but still.

Parting Thoughts - If the Ravens had gone for the 4th and gaol, like they should, and made it, like they would have, I would have had my first ever absolutely perfect score prediction (if you saw my blogimoreravens.com post you would have seen my 20-16 forecast).

Q & A With a Ravens Supporter

My cousin Dewey is a Native of Baltimore and also a big Ravens fan. He writes his own Ravens blog and so we decided to exchange a Q & A about each others teams in preparation for this Sunday’s game. Below is our discussion about the Ravens. Stay tuned to BlogimoreRavens.com to see what I had to say about the Dolphins.

Ted: What has been the biggest reason for the Ravens lack of success this year and more specifically the current seven game losing streak?

Dewey: Baltimore's disappointing season started with the team's success last year. They overachieved with 13-3. They avoided injuries, caught some lucky breaks, and won a few games they had no business winning. Add Willis McGahee to the mix, and everyone starts talking Super Bowl.

But the injury bug hit hard, starting with DE Trevor Pryce. Without him, there is no pass rush, and with both of Baltimore's starting corners (Rolle and McAlister) missing significant time this year, no pass rush = bad news.

Also, Billick is terrible at play calling and clock management, and the Ravens schedule this year was more challenging than it was last year. Back-to-back-to-back featuring San Diego, New England and Indianapolis.

Ted: What are the attitudes of the team and fans going into this game? Do they feel somewhat nervous trying to avoid being labeled, "That team that lost to the 0-13 Dolphins or are they just confident they will go about their business and end their losing streak.

Dewey: The fact that owner Steve Bisciotti today leaked word that Billick will be back next year is not good news. Fans and players like Billick personally, but no one has any faith in him as a head coach.

Neither the team nor its fans are confident. Everyone is embarrassed. That said, I don't expect them to lay down and die. They will play hard this weekend and for the rest of the season. Maybe they'll take a week off when they're on the road against the Seahawks next week, but they don't want to lose to Miami, and they definitely don't ever want to lose to Pittsburgh.

Ted: Is their a possibility of seeing Troy Smith in this game, regardless of the score? How do fans feel about him and Boller and should they be drafting a QB in April?

Dewey: Now that Billick can breathe more easily knowing that he'll be back next year, I would be shocked if we don't see Troy Smith for a series or two (or more) this weekend.

Many fans love Boller as a backup in Baltimore, but very few of us think he is a starter (and there are certainly plenty of people who loathe him no matter what his role is). But I'm comfortable going into next season with Boller at the helm. I don't want Baltimore to draft a QB in April, at least not in the first round. I'd rather have them draft defense (CB, DE).

Ted: Finally, How do you think this game will go, and who will win?

Dewey: Baltimore's secondary is out. Todd Heap is out. The pass rush is gone. The confidence is shot. The coach is terrible. But Willis McGahee is still pretty good. Unfortunately, I don't think it will be enough. Dolphins win.

Wow, I’m surprised that he picked Miami to win, but I do know what it is like to lack confidence in your favorite team. I would have to agree that the tough schedule and Billick’s bad game management are the most to blame for the slide. Also, they have been unlucky (the Browns’ field goal that may have been illegally reviewed and the Patriots last drive with the 4^th down stops nullified). We’ll see what is in store Sunday afternoon. I think whichever team ends up with the +2 or better turnover margin will win.

Picks Against the Spread - Week 15

Last week: 10-6
Season to date: 60-70-3

Dolphins This Week

• Baltimore (-3.5) OVER @ Miami - I have no idea what to think of this game. I've been burned many times this season thinking the Dolphins would get their first win. Thus, I'll pick the Ravens even though this is a game fit to be tied.
  

Games of the Week

• Buffalo (+5.5) OVER @ Cleveland - The Browns play well at home, but the Bills are pretty sneaky. So much so, that I think they could sneak out of Cleveland with a huge win. However, I'll stick with the Browns for the outright win, but Bills to cover.
  
• @ New Orleans (-3.5) OVER Arizona - It'll be a hangover for the Cardinals. They had an opportunity to go to Seattle and get back in the division race and stay in the lead for the wild card. Second road game in as many weeks and they will come out flat and the Saints will take advantage.
  

The Rest

• Denver (-1) OVER @ Houston
  
• @ San Francisco (+8.5) OVER Cincinnati
  
• @ Tampa Bay (13.5) OVER Atlanta
  
• Green Bay (-9.5) OVER @ St. Louis
  
• Jacksonville (+3.5) OVER @ Pittsburgh
  
• @ New England (-23.5) OVER New York Jets
  
• Seattle (-7) OVER @ Carolina
• Tennessee (-4) OVER @ Kansas City
• Indianapolis (-10.5) OVER @ Oakland
• @ San Diego (-10) OVER Detroit
  
• @ Dallas (-10) OVER Philadelphia
  
• @ New York Giants (-4.5) OVER Washington
  
• Chicago (+10) OVER @ Minnesota
  

Dolphins @ Bills, Ramblings

I haven't been writing much about the Dolphins lately because, well, they are pretty depressing. Anyway here are some random thoughts on tomorrow's game

• This game will probably look more like the ones in Philly and Pittsburgh, rather than last week's home loss, especially for John Beck. The offense will be back in mistake-prevention mode and should feature lots of runs, short passes, and punts.
• Lorenzo Booker MUST appear in this game. It should be close and low scoring and one big play could go a long way towards actually winning. He seems to have the most potential of our RB's to score a touchdown.
  
• Marshawn Lynch is questionable. I don't think it's a huge deal from the Bills standpoint, but as a DolPhan, I hope he is just unavailable to play. He was key for them in the game at Miami, scoring the TD and a 2-point conversion in the 4th quarter and running lots of clock before the game winning field goal
• I don't care who calls the offensive plays. Cam should, but if someone told him not to, we shouldn't make a big deal about it.
• The Bills, provided they don't do something stupid, like lose to a 0-12 team, actually have a good shot at making the playoffs. They will be 7-6, and with a win over Cleveland could move into the final wild card spot with the final two games against the Giants (could be locked into the #5 seed) and Eagles (could quit after being mathematically eliminated).

Prediction

• Bills 17, Dolphins 13
  

Picks Against the Spread - Week 14

Last week: 8-8
Season to date: 50-64-3

Miami Dolphins This Week

• @ Buffalo (-7) OVER Miami - I learned my lesson, I will not pick the Dolphins again until they win a game outright. The Bills have won five of the last seven, with the only losses to the Pats and Jags. They should cruise to victory over the mentally broken Dolphins.

Games of the Week

• @ New England (-10.5) OVER Pittsburgh - Stop the presses! The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in two consecutive weeks. It doesn't really matter, it still makes sense to pick them every week.
• @ Tennessee OVER San Diego - The Chargers are looking good but are 2-4 on the road. Tennessee should be rejuvenated after getting back into a tie with Cleveland for the final wild card spot

The Rest

• @ Washington (-3) OVER Chicago
  
• Carolina (+10.5) OVER @ Jacksonville - Letdown Alert!
• Dallas (-10.5) OVER @ Detroit
• @ Philadelphia (-3) OVER New York Giants
• @ Green Bay (-10.5) OVER Oakland
• St. Louis (+6.5) OVER @ Cincinnati
• Tampa Bay (-3) OVER @Houston
  
• Arizona (+7) OVER @ Seattle
• Minnesota (-8.5) OVER @ San Francisco
• Cleveland (-3.5) OVER @ New York Jets
• @ Denver (-6.5) OVER Kansas City
• Indianapolis (-9.5) OVER @ Baltimore
  
• New Orleans (-4.5) OVER @ Atlanta