Five Reasons Why The Dolphins Will Beat The Ravens

5. Jason Ferguson: In the week seven loss, nose tackle Jason Ferguson was injured in the first quarter and never returned. He anchors Miami's run defense and is the biggest reason for the turnaround in that department. He occupies blockers and disrupts the timing of rush attempts. Backup nose tackle Paul Soliai was suspended from this game as well, which meant the Dolphins played nearly the entire game in a 3-4 defense with no true nose tackle and a very thin defensive line rotation. That was a recipe for disaster. Miami was lost and allowed a big day on the ground to Willis McGahee, which also led to a good performance by Joe Flacco. That won't happen again. The Ravens will have a much rougher time running the ball, specifically in the red zone. The Ravens run the ball about 80% of the time they are in the red zone. Miami's defense has excelled in the that are late in the season forcing field goal attempts rather than allowing touchdowns. Look for that to continue.

4. The Wildcat: I know what you are thinking. Hey, the Ravens completely shut down the wildcat. In the week seven game, the wildcat formation was a big talking point before the game and the Ravens were able to blow it up and dominate it. At that time in the season though, the wildcat was a crutch for our offense. It's success was essential to set up the rest of our offense. The Dolphins were dependent on it. When it was stopped, our offense didn't stand a chance. That is not the case anymore. The formation and plays are thoroughly ingrained into the system and now it is a part of the offense rather than the focal point. Late in the season we have seen less of the wildcat and it now is just another bullet we have to fire if needed. If the Ravens shut it down, no matter, we will move the ball anyway.

3. 27-13, 20-3: 27-13 is the score from the week seven encounter in which the Ravens were looking for revenge for being Miami's sole defeated opponent in 2007. Congratulations. Now the revenge cycle is on Miami's side. They wish to atone for that week seven loss which was just very uncharacteristic of this team. 20-3 is the score from the last playoff game between these two teams and also the last time Miami was in the playoffs period. Even though no Dolphins are left from that team, the story is being brought up in the media and by the fans and the players feel responsibility to right that wrong as well. Miami owes Baltimore and this is the time. Everyone is picking the Ravens, and that's not surprising. I want it that way and so do the players. They like people telling they won't win and that their magical run is coming to an end.

2. Cam Cameron: When have you ever seen an offensive coordinator get a water cooler dumped on him for winning any game, let alone a regular season game, in the first half of the season? Well that's what happened to Cam Cameron for his initial return to Miami. I hope he's proud of that accomplishment because beating the Dolphins is not in this week's playbook. I already mentioned how the run defense will be better with Jason Ferguson. The pass defense has also vastly improved since that game. The week seven game was an easy one to call because of how poor Miami's defense was. I could have called plays for the Ravens that day and been victorious. Not again. Cameron will have a much tougher time when the run game is not proficient and he will have to put the fate of a playoff game in the hands of a rookie quarterback. Let's also think about his reputation in playoff games. He took the Chargers to two home playoff games in his tenure there and he lost both of them, most notably the 2006 loss to New England after a 14-2 season. He will have a great time with his offense that will fail, forward, fast.

1. Joe Flacco vs Chad Pennington: I like Joe Flacco. I liked him before the draft and I was glad he didn't end up with a team I totally hate. I like what he has done, it has been very impressive. Rookie quarterbacks rarely have success in the NFL but he has done it. But even rarer than rookie quarterbacks having success is rookie quarterbacks having playoff successes. Marino couldn't, Manning couldn't, Roethlisberger couldn't (although he did luckily win one game thanks to epic failures from the Jets kicker) and Flacco won't. Chad Pennington won his first playoff game 41-0 over Peyton Manning's Colts. In 2004 he beat Cam Cameron's Chargers. He's been there, he's won, he's lost, he's seen it all. He is ready. Joe Flacco hasn't seen anything like this, and before you say that he's too dumb to realize the situation and how that's a good thing that pressure doesn't seep into him, well, it's been said before, and it's been wrong before, and it will continue to be wrong. I'll take experienced quarterbacks over rookies in the playoffs every single time.

Week 17: Miami @ New York Jets, In Pictures

Ted Ginn Scores

I'll try to come up a full recap tomorrow but for now let's applaud Ted Ginn, who did a great job of running in the open field with no threat of tacklers all the way to the end zone. That gives Ginn two rushing touchdowns on the year to go along with another TD of the receiving variety. Click the image above to watch the play on NFL.com. Now that was a great way to start a football game. Ginn also caught four balls for a total of forty-four yards receiving.

Update: 12/17/2008

I have been inactive for quite some time here. I actually have about four or five drafts since my last post but I have never finished them. Now I will try to just present several thoughts in a quick hit form and hopefully be more active here at the end of the season.

• We all know the playoff scenarios by now, basically if Miami wins the final two games at Kansas City and New York, then they win the division. If that doesn't happen then we probably aren't going to the playoffs. It sounds simple but it should be plenty difficult.
• The Chiefs game is one I've looked at for several weeks with unease. It's never easy to go to Arrowhead and win no matter how poorly the Chiefs are playing. Also, I usually hate when this is said, but they are better than their record indicates. They have played some very tough games and should have more wins but they just don't. I hate playing teams like this. Hopefully the Dolphins come out strong and make me laugh at myself for having written this.
• Pro Bowl Rosters were announced yesterday and the Dolphins inclusions and exclusions didn't surprise me. Joey Porter is a starter, that was obvious and is 100% legit. Ronnie Brown made it but it's questionable whether he should have got in over Steve Slaton. Ronnie is deserving and the sexiness of the wildcat, combined with the fact he is not a rookie probably got him the nod. I like Slaton and he will probably be making pro bowls soon enough. Brett Favre made it and there is really no argument as for why he should be there other than the fact that he is Brett Favre. This is like the MLB All Star game when lifetime stars make it on name recognition alone. I expected this but it doesn't make it any less of a travesty. Both Philip Rivers and Chad Pennington are having better years and have more of a direct influence on their teams success.
• Since the New England game, the defense has not allowed a touchdown and has only allowed 24 total points in three games. I think the biggest reason why has been the defensive line. No one on that unit is putting up big numbers but there are two reasons why. One, in a 3-4 defense the line doesn't make a lot of plays, it is their job to free up linebackers to make plays. Two, we use a rotation in which five or six different guys each get a good amount of playing time, but too much. Randy Starks probably doesn't get enough credit. He's been good on third downs and several times have helped snuff out screen plays that had potential.
  
• Earlier in the year writer Mike Florio wrote an article suggesting that it's time for the NFL to abandon the current four team division format and try something else. Both the AFC and NFC west division show why this is a good idea and I agree. In the AFC west, the Broncos lead with an 8-6 record and the Chargers are still alive with a 6-8 record. In the NFC, the Cardinals have already clinched with an 8-6 record. I'm not saying the eventual division winners aren't deserving, but the system is flawed when a team like San Diego might finish 8-8 in a bad division and get to the playoffs and a team like the Patriots, who could go 11-5 in a tougher division might be left out. I'm not sure what the solution would be but this needs to be explored. Maybe go to two divisions of eight teams each, I don't know.

More later