Divisional Round: Ravens at Titans

Baltimore Ravens @ Tennessee Titans
Saturday January 10th, 4:30 PM
Favorite: Titans (-3)

Why the Ravens Will Win: Ed Reed and the Baltimore defense are other-worldly. They simply take over a game and win it all on their own. In the wild card game they were able to frustrate Miami and get them totally out of their element. Not only does the defense hold opponents to low point totals, they set up their offense in good field position and also score themselves. That is tough for opponents to overcome. The Ravens offense is nothing to write home about, but they are able to run the ball when it is needed most, especially late in the game with a lead. Punter Sam Koch is also a huge asset in the field position game.

Why the Titans Will Win: Tennessee is a lot like Miami but better. They run between the tackles better and pose more of a big play threat in the running game. On defense, Albert Haynesworth leads a great run stopping unit and they force turnovers as well. The Titans will be able to get a better pass rush on rookie Joe Flacco and force him into mistakes he didn't make last weekend.

Prediction: Every thing would seem to point to the Ravens, and that's why I will pick the Titans. They play very well at home and will get out to an early lead. That changes things a lot for Baltimore. I also think that Flacco will make one mistake that will set up a field goal or touchdown for the Titans. In the end, that will be the difference.

Titans 20, Ravens 16

Wild Card Weekend: Baltimore at Miami

Baltimore Ravens (11-5) @ Miami Dolphins (11-5)
Sunday January 4th, 1:00 PM, CBS
Dolphin Stadium
Favorite: Ravens (-3.5)

In an earlier post I detailed why Miami could win the game so I'll start off this section describing why Baltimore could instead advance. The Ravens defense is awesome. There aren't enough words to accurately depict it's awesomeness. They lead the league in forcing turnovers and frequently dominate games. Because most everybody has the belief that defense wins championships, Baltimore enters this game not only viewed as the favorite but also thought of to be the team that can make a run to the Super Bowl from a wild card spot. Another key in the playoffs is the running game, which is another area where the Ravens excel. The emergence of fullback Le'Ron McClain gives them a bruiser who can get tough yards and help the offensive line dominate the trenches. I just feel though that the Dolphins offense, which led the league in fewest turnovers, will be able to avoid mistakes and on the other side, a rookie quarterback (even though he's a stellar rookie) will make a couple errors.

Pick: Miami 17, Baltimore 16

Five Reasons Why The Dolphins Will Beat The Ravens

5. Jason Ferguson: In the week seven loss, nose tackle Jason Ferguson was injured in the first quarter and never returned. He anchors Miami's run defense and is the biggest reason for the turnaround in that department. He occupies blockers and disrupts the timing of rush attempts. Backup nose tackle Paul Soliai was suspended from this game as well, which meant the Dolphins played nearly the entire game in a 3-4 defense with no true nose tackle and a very thin defensive line rotation. That was a recipe for disaster. Miami was lost and allowed a big day on the ground to Willis McGahee, which also led to a good performance by Joe Flacco. That won't happen again. The Ravens will have a much rougher time running the ball, specifically in the red zone. The Ravens run the ball about 80% of the time they are in the red zone. Miami's defense has excelled in the that are late in the season forcing field goal attempts rather than allowing touchdowns. Look for that to continue.

4. The Wildcat: I know what you are thinking. Hey, the Ravens completely shut down the wildcat. In the week seven game, the wildcat formation was a big talking point before the game and the Ravens were able to blow it up and dominate it. At that time in the season though, the wildcat was a crutch for our offense. It's success was essential to set up the rest of our offense. The Dolphins were dependent on it. When it was stopped, our offense didn't stand a chance. That is not the case anymore. The formation and plays are thoroughly ingrained into the system and now it is a part of the offense rather than the focal point. Late in the season we have seen less of the wildcat and it now is just another bullet we have to fire if needed. If the Ravens shut it down, no matter, we will move the ball anyway.

3. 27-13, 20-3: 27-13 is the score from the week seven encounter in which the Ravens were looking for revenge for being Miami's sole defeated opponent in 2007. Congratulations. Now the revenge cycle is on Miami's side. They wish to atone for that week seven loss which was just very uncharacteristic of this team. 20-3 is the score from the last playoff game between these two teams and also the last time Miami was in the playoffs period. Even though no Dolphins are left from that team, the story is being brought up in the media and by the fans and the players feel responsibility to right that wrong as well. Miami owes Baltimore and this is the time. Everyone is picking the Ravens, and that's not surprising. I want it that way and so do the players. They like people telling they won't win and that their magical run is coming to an end.

2. Cam Cameron: When have you ever seen an offensive coordinator get a water cooler dumped on him for winning any game, let alone a regular season game, in the first half of the season? Well that's what happened to Cam Cameron for his initial return to Miami. I hope he's proud of that accomplishment because beating the Dolphins is not in this week's playbook. I already mentioned how the run defense will be better with Jason Ferguson. The pass defense has also vastly improved since that game. The week seven game was an easy one to call because of how poor Miami's defense was. I could have called plays for the Ravens that day and been victorious. Not again. Cameron will have a much tougher time when the run game is not proficient and he will have to put the fate of a playoff game in the hands of a rookie quarterback. Let's also think about his reputation in playoff games. He took the Chargers to two home playoff games in his tenure there and he lost both of them, most notably the 2006 loss to New England after a 14-2 season. He will have a great time with his offense that will fail, forward, fast.

1. Joe Flacco vs Chad Pennington: I like Joe Flacco. I liked him before the draft and I was glad he didn't end up with a team I totally hate. I like what he has done, it has been very impressive. Rookie quarterbacks rarely have success in the NFL but he has done it. But even rarer than rookie quarterbacks having success is rookie quarterbacks having playoff successes. Marino couldn't, Manning couldn't, Roethlisberger couldn't (although he did luckily win one game thanks to epic failures from the Jets kicker) and Flacco won't. Chad Pennington won his first playoff game 41-0 over Peyton Manning's Colts. In 2004 he beat Cam Cameron's Chargers. He's been there, he's won, he's lost, he's seen it all. He is ready. Joe Flacco hasn't seen anything like this, and before you say that he's too dumb to realize the situation and how that's a good thing that pressure doesn't seep into him, well, it's been said before, and it's been wrong before, and it will continue to be wrong. I'll take experienced quarterbacks over rookies in the playoffs every single time.

Week Seven Recap: Ravens at Dolphins

(sun-sentinel.com)

That was a stinker. Miami just never got in sync in this game and Baltimore took advantage. A pick-six in the second quarter gave the Ravens the lead and the Dolphins were playing catchup the rest of the afternoon. Here is a little three up, three down on Miami's performance.

Three Up

1. Ted Ginn, Jr. was inserted on kickoff returns and did a nice job. He had a couple nice ones early in the game and then the Ravnes started doing shorter pooch kicks, to limit his TD potential. He is clearly a better option than Davone Bess. He also caught four passes for 48 yards as a receiver.
2. Yeremiah Bell is the only good thing in the Dolphins secondary these days. He led the team with eight tackles (which probably isn't a good thing when your safety is a leading tackler) and also had a crucial forced fumble that temporarily kept us in the game. He is looking like the playmaker we came to know in 2006. Too bad he doesn't have much help back there.
3. Joey Porter turned in another good pass rushing performance. He recorded two more sacks, giving him eight and a half on the season thus far. We needed a big year from him to help our young defense and he is delivering.
   

Three Down

1. The Red Zone Offense and Defense was poor yesterday. Coming into the game, the Dolphins had scored 15 touchdowns and only attempted 4 field goals. In the first half, twice they had the ball inside the 15 yard line and settled for two short field goals. On defense, Miami allowed a huge red zone touchdown on third and nine from the eleven yard line right before the half. Also in the fourth quarter they allowed a rushing touchdown allowing the lead to get to 14 instead of 10, effectively ending the game. In our four trips, we scored 13 points. In their three trips, they scored 17 points. Unacceptable.
2. The Wildcat Formation was stopped for this first time. I'll give credit to the Ravens defense, who said they would not allow that to beat them, but I must say I don't think the formation was used properly. Early in the game, Ronnie Brown kept it most of the time and the Ravens were selling out for the inside runs. They maintained their gap responsibility and tackled well to shut it down. Last week in Houston we used the trick plays before the normal Ronnie runs to keep the defense honest. This week it just seemed like they expected Ronnie to bail them out. It didn't work.
3. The Pass Defense continues to struggle. I know the defense didn't stop the run well, which makes it tougher to defend the pass, but this group doesn't make plays and allows big third down conversion for opposng offenses. When you get down to it, the pass defense only seems to do well when we stop the run and get a good pass rush. When that happens, anybody can play good pass defense. Yeremiah Bell and Will Allen are the only solid players and even they can improve. The front office did nothing to improve this area in the offseason and we are paying for it now. It will need to be a high priority this spring.

Random Thoughts

• Was it really necessary to give Cam Cameron a gatorade bath. First of all, you just beat a now 2-4 team. Also, it's not like offensive ingenuity was needed. They ran the ball well and that set up everything else.
• Ricky Williams received a lot of local hype coming into this year but he hasn't found his stride. He had a good game in New England (who didn't?) but since has struggled to make big runs and fit with the offense. He is getting less carries, and I wouldn't be surprised if the wildcat formation had a new wing back this week.
• The nose tackle situation really hurt Miami yesterday. Backup Paul Soliai was suspended and starter Jason Ferguson was injured early and didn't return. He is the key man for our run defense and his absence was notable. Randy Starks has been playing well but he is not a 3-4 NT and that showed on Sunday.
• I can't get mad at Chad Pennington's pick-six. We were in the sixth game and that was his first real bad game changing decision. It put us in a bad spot and we didn't recover. He is still the right man for this team though.
• I don't know what's in the water down here but opposing punters have killed the Dolphins. This time it was Sam Koch who averaged 59 yards for three punts. It is very deflating when you get field position that is 20 or so yards worse than you thought it'd be.
  

That's about it for now. Up this week is a tough matchup with the Buffalo Bills at home.

The Baltimore Ravens Season In Under 200 Words

Preseason Thoughts

I thought they would earn a wild card spot or fall just short. Boy, was I wrong! Dead wrong.

Season Recap

• Promising 4-2 start
• Turns out they beat bad teams and gave fans false hope
• Bad luck and poor coaching leads to a nine game losing streak, including the most embarrassing loss of the year to 1-15 Miami
  
• Salvaged pride (or hurt draft position) with week 17 win over Pittsburgh

Grade

D- : They took a major step back this season and added their name to the list of "Those Teams That Lost to a 1-15 Team." It really could be an "F" but they did win five and should've beaten the Patriots.

Needs to Improve

Divisional Play: They went 1-5, with the one being the aforementioned week 17 game
Finishing Games: They should've beaten the Browns, Pats & 'Phins
Not Neglect an Aging Defense: They are getting old. Don't let them fall off the deep end like Miami did.