Week Five (Chargers @ Dolphins): Early Thoughts

The San Diego Chargers are coming to Miami and it shapes up to be a good game, maybe. I'm not quite sure what to think of the Chargers. I picked them to go to the Super Bowl but then they lose their first two games and Shawn Merriman goes down for the season. They have bounced back reasonably well beating the Jets and Raiders and now stand at 2-2. If it weren't for a last gasp TD in week one, and a blown call in week two, then they would be 4-0. But, they also just sleepwalked their way into Oakland and needed a big second half to overcome a 15-0 deficit. I think this game could go in any number of directions.

Scenario One: San Diego come ins ready to play and shows why they are a year or two ahead of Miami. They have a balanced offense and can exploit the weaknesses in our defense. They also have had time to prepare for our Wildcat formation and will not be fooled. Their defense also thrives on turnovers and if we let them make plays then it could be a long day for us in Miami.

Scenario Two: Any combination of Miami playing well and San Diego struggling to start the game. It is an early kickoff and it wouldn't surprise me to see Miami jump out in front early. Ultimately though, the Chargers will make enough plays to overcome the deficit and continue their winning streak.

Scenario Three: San Diego comes out flat and Miami totally takes advantage. If this is the case it will probably look like the New England game but I don't think the score would be as convincing. The Chargers will put up a fight and won't go down easy.

I know I didn't go into much actual football breakdowns but I will as the week goes on. I also hope to exchange a Q&A with a Chargers blogger to get more info on how they feel about their team and this game. As for right now I would say Scenario One is the most likely, probably at around 50%. The other two I would peg at 25% each, meaning I think we would win this game one out of every four times.

Week Five Picks

Last Week: 9-4
Season to Date: 25-34-1

Tennessee @ Baltimore (+3): The ravens defense will slow down the Titans running attack and make a late play to win the game.

Seattle @ New York Giants (-7): This should be a close game, but a late score will cover for the G-men.

Washington (+5.5) @ Philadelphia: The Redskins are on a roll and are looking for back to back road wins in the division. The Eagles will probably win this one, but it should be a real close game.

San Diego (-6.5) @ Miami: The Chargers are on a mission since the Hochuli disaster. I suppose they may be looking ahead to the Patriots but the Dolphins aren't sneaking up on anybody anymore.

Chicago (-3) @ Detroit: The first game of the post-Millen era shoudln't look too much different than what went on during the Millen reign. The Bears know they need to stay consistent and win in the division.

Atlanta @ Green Bay (-7): I may be changing this pick depending on what happens with Aaron Rodgers, but even if he's out the Falcons should have a tough time in Lambeau.

Indianapolis (-3) @ Houston: This is a game of true desperation, neither team can afford to lose. I'll take Manning over Schaub.

Kansas City @ Carolina (-9.5): It was nice for the Chiefs to show up at home against a division rival. Going on the road is another story. The Panthers are saving John Fox's job so far.

Tampa Bay @ Denver (-3): The Broncos never showed up in Kansas City. With the Chargers resurgence they know they need to get back on track.

Buffalo @ Arizona (-1): Arizona's east coast trip didn't go well, but they will take out their frustration on an east division opponent in their building. The Bills undefeated run will end.

New England (-3) @ San Francisco: This game should tell us a lot about each team. The 49ers can make a real statement, but they won't.

Cincinnati @ Dallas: I can't find a spread anywhere yet for this game. I think Dallas wins big.

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville (-4): The Jags play well at home and their defense will be up to the task. The Steelers haven't been too impressive.

Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3): The NFC South has turned out better than I thought and their success will continue here with the Saints outscoring Adrian Peterson.

Week Four Picks

Note: I didn't have a recap of the week three ass pounding the Dolphins gave the Patriots because the early part of this week I was very busy and then sick. I think you have probably heard enough of it by now so I'll just get to the picks and hope the Dolphins can deliver a few more performances like that.

Last Week: 5-11
Season to Date: 16-30-1

Okay, I'm going to stop letting Matt Millen make my picks for me.

Atlanta @ Carolina (-7)
Denver (-9.5) @ Kansas City
San Francisco @ New Orleans (-5.5)
Arizona @ New York Jets (-1)
Minnesota @ Tennessee (-3)
Green Bay (+1) @ Tampa Bay
Houston (+9) @ Jacksonville
Cleveland (+3.5) @ Cincinnati
San Diego (-9) @ Oakland
Buffalo (-9) @ St. Louis
Washington (+11) @ Dallas
Philadelphia (-3) @ Chicago
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)