Colts vs Dolphins: Preview & Keys

This won't exactly be an in-depth preview, but here are some key points

• Miami should feel a sence of urgency, as the Jets and Bills each have looked impressive in the first two weeks. The Patriots look a bit out of sync but you know they will pick it up. This year it won't be as easy to come back if the team falls two or more games back.
• For a team that prides itself on a balanced attack and ball control offense, I didn't see too much commitment to the run in week one. The team was never down by more than two scores, and time was not an issue, yet Ronnie Brown only got ten carries. Ricky Williams had seven. I'd expect to see ome of the traditional wildcat formation with the unbalanced line to help get some big plays from the running game.
• It will be important for the defense to blitz Peyton Manning and get to him. Take a cue from Rex Ryan's Jets and make the quarterback get rid of the ball before he likes. Make him hit the appropriate check downs and stop them for short gains. If we allow him time for routes to develop and receivers to find the open zones, it could be a long night.
• We must find a way to get Ted Ginn involved. Since we can't throw deep routes, we should use him on the end-around that resulted in two touchdown's last year. I'd also like to see him motion ino the slot from time to time, hopefully creating matchup problems.

Miami at Atlanta: Preview & Keys

Sorry for the gross inactivity lately, I've been very busy with work lazy. But the regular season is finally here so you can be expecting plenty of updates.So let's get right to it and discuss this week's keys to the games


Offense

Atlanta's defense and in particular their secondary did not show well in the preseason. The question is, will the Dolphins take some chances and try to exploit that weakness in the deep passing game, or will they stick to their philosophy and focus on running the ball and the short and intermediate passing attack? I think it's important they take some shots deep early and hopefully complete a couple to help open up the entire field for the rest of the game. We saw last year when opponents could put eight in the box, especially for the wildcat formation plays, we had a difficult time running the ball and moving the chains. This offense needs to make the proper progression this year and be able to defeat that defense, hopefully by preemptively showing the willingness to throw deep. I know Chad Pennington can't chuck it that far, but offensive coordinator Dan Henning must find a way to get some favorable matchups in the secondary and try to let our receivers make plays.

Defense

Michael Turner is going to rush the ball well and he will get good yardage and possibly some touchdowns, but we can't let ourselves get continually gashed by the running game. It is important that the front seven finds a way to get some big wins on first down by getting tackles for a loss and setting up second and third and longs. That way they can blitz stud quarterback Matt Ryan and hopefully get the ball out of his hands early and let our secondary make plays. They are improved, but we can't ask them to cover for more than a few seconds. The obvious focus in the passing game will be tight end Tony Gonzalez. We must find him on third downs and blanket him. Nothing is more frustrating for a defense than to give up third down conversions and Gonzalez is always a factor on those and also in the red zone. I actually think a good ploy would be to put rookie cornerback Sean Smith on him at times to see if that's a good matchup. Smith has shown terrific in the preseason and has earned the opportunity.

Special Teams & Intangibles

Last year Miami's coverage units were not good. This preseason did nothing to make anyone think they'll be better. It is imperative that they not gift away points by allowing long returns or making other mistakes in the special teams game. Easier said than done. Also, Atlanta was very good at home in 2008 going 7-1. The dome provides a lot of crowd noise and for the first game of the season after an 11-5, eight win improvement, we can expect the place to be rocking. Miami didn't have a problem with penalties last year but we might see some false starts today.


Final Thoughts

I love the unpredictability of week one. I can envision us picking up right where the 2008 regular season left off and scoring a win, but also I wouldn't be surprised if we struggled and Atlanta controlled the game. For that reason I will make no prediction and just hope for a Dolphins victory.

Week Eight: Early Thoughts BUF at MIA

BEAST MODE

(buffalonews.com)

This Sunday the Miami Dolphins receive a visit from their AFC East rival Buffalo Bills. The Bills are a team I thought would be pretty good this year, as I picked them to make the playoffs via a wild card spot. I'd be lying if I said that I believed they would be 5-1 coming into this match up. They have played excellent football and remain in pole position in the division. This week is actually the start of three consecutive division games for them where they have a great opportunity to build a lead or keep things interesting.

Miami Offense vs Buffalo Defense

The Dolphins offense sputtered last week against a good Ravens defense. They were not able to run the ball effectively and the wildcat formation didn't produce anything either. Chad Pennington was able to throw the ball and put up good numbers but a pick-six on a third down in the second quarter really set Miami back in the game. The Dolphins also had two first half drives stall in the red zone and had to settle for two field goals. For Miami to be successful they must be able to run the ball, however possible. If they are to continue using the wildcat, then I would like to see two things. First, I think we should use one of the trick plays early, to keep the defense honest. Even if it doesn't work, they will know they can't just sell out for a Ronnie Brown run. Also, I would like to see a change in personnel for the wing back. Ricky Williams hasn't found his groove yet and I think we should use our speediest player, Ted Ginn, in that role.

Buffalo's defense is one of the more underrated units in the NFL. They don't overwhelm you with stats or turnovers but the thing that caught my eye when glancing at their schedule was that they've held their opponent to 16 or less points in four of their six games. They come up with the key stops and will give their offense a chance to win the game. I mentioned the Dolphins red zone opportunities above and I think that area will be the most important in this game. The Dolphins should move the ball but if they settle for field goals, it won't be good enough.

Buffalo Offense vs Miami Defense

The Dolphins defense was not very good this past week. They could not stop the run which was due in large part (literally and figuratively) to the absence of backup nose tackle Paul Soliai and the early injury to starter Jason Ferguson. Randy Starks tried to pick up the slack but he is not a true NT, and probably doesn't see too many reps in practice at that spot. This is the most important position in the 3-4 when it comes to stopping the run. You must clog the middle and occupy blockers to allow the linebackers to roam and make plays. Soliai should be back after serving a team issued one game suspension and Ferguson is listed as day to day. Miami's biggest issue on defense is pass coverage. The secondary has allowed a lot of big pays and key conversions on third and long. They must be bouyed by a good pass rush but it is still their job to make a play, and there hasn't been many made. Another big problem is dropped interceptions. It is very deflating when you are in position to take advantage of a mistake by the offense and instead you give them another chance. We can't have any more of that.

The Bills offense is similar to their defense as they don't jump out at you as exciting or dominant, but they just get the job done. Marshawn Lynch is good running back and if you allow him space he will make you pay big time. It's also important to wrap him up and don't let him use his strength to break tackles and make extra yards. The most worrying thing about their passng game is Lee Evans. It seems every week he is scoring a touchdown on a long bomb. Against Miami's defense that could be a good recipe for success. Ultimately it will come down to the runing game though. If Miami can stop the run, then the defense can be set up to defend the pass and make plays.

I'll have more later this week, hopefully another Q&A with a blogger.

Week Five (Chargers @ Dolphins): Early Thoughts

The San Diego Chargers are coming to Miami and it shapes up to be a good game, maybe. I'm not quite sure what to think of the Chargers. I picked them to go to the Super Bowl but then they lose their first two games and Shawn Merriman goes down for the season. They have bounced back reasonably well beating the Jets and Raiders and now stand at 2-2. If it weren't for a last gasp TD in week one, and a blown call in week two, then they would be 4-0. But, they also just sleepwalked their way into Oakland and needed a big second half to overcome a 15-0 deficit. I think this game could go in any number of directions.

Scenario One: San Diego come ins ready to play and shows why they are a year or two ahead of Miami. They have a balanced offense and can exploit the weaknesses in our defense. They also have had time to prepare for our Wildcat formation and will not be fooled. Their defense also thrives on turnovers and if we let them make plays then it could be a long day for us in Miami.

Scenario Two: Any combination of Miami playing well and San Diego struggling to start the game. It is an early kickoff and it wouldn't surprise me to see Miami jump out in front early. Ultimately though, the Chargers will make enough plays to overcome the deficit and continue their winning streak.

Scenario Three: San Diego comes out flat and Miami totally takes advantage. If this is the case it will probably look like the New England game but I don't think the score would be as convincing. The Chargers will put up a fight and won't go down easy.

I know I didn't go into much actual football breakdowns but I will as the week goes on. I also hope to exchange a Q&A with a Chargers blogger to get more info on how they feel about their team and this game. As for right now I would say Scenario One is the most likely, probably at around 50%. The other two I would peg at 25% each, meaning I think we would win this game one out of every four times.

Week Three: Keys to the Game

Coming off an embarrassing blowout loss the Dolphins will go on the road again, this time to division and conference power, New England. This is not exactly the type of game that I would ask when trying to rebound from two tough defeats in the first couple weeks of this season. Nonetheless, the schedule is what it is, and Miami will have to find a way to improve, play better, and compete. These should be the keys to Sunday's matchup

1. Start Well: Right now I'm trying to think of the last time the Dolphins started a game well. I'm going to have to look it up. We haven't had a lead at any point this year and once again have had poor first quarters, being outscored 21-0 so far. This team must get ahead early which will give them confidence to keep playing well and stay ahead. Okay I looked it up, the last time the Dolphins had a lead of seven or more points in the first half was in week five of last season against Houston. The last time we scored a touchdown on our opening drive was in week thirteen of the 2006 season. Wow.

2. Running Game: Week one we didn't run the ball enough. Week two we ran it some more but not well enough. Hopefully the next step will be running it a lot and doing a good job at it. We need to control the clock and churn out first downs. The blame for the below average running game falls on both the offensive line and the running backs. The line must give the backs a better opportunity for positive yards and perhaps a big play. I would run behind Jake Long and the left side. The running backs also must do a better job of getting all the yardage they can and avoiding negative plays. Too many times I have seen rushes for losses, setting up the team in hard to convert third down situations.

3. Defensive Backs: I've gone over several times about the abysmal play of our passing defense. The main problem is that our defenders don't do a good job of playing the ball, so even if they cover a receiver very well, if the ball comes that way, it's likely to be a reception. They must learn to break up passes any way possible. Bat the ball away, make a big hit as the ball arrives, but please don't stand next to a guy and watch him catch the ball. I'll say this again, Jason Allen needs to start in place of Chris Crocker.

4. Penalties: Looking at the boxscore, we only ended up with six penalties but if you remember correctly, there were several more that were declined as well. The most concerning point about the infractions is when they occurred. On an Arizona missed field goal, we had twelve men on the field. On that drive kept alive, they scored a touchdown. That's a seven point difference. On a third and goal for the Cardinals we made a sack but committed a facemask violation. They scored another touchdown afterwards. That's a four point difference (if they make the field goal). In this game it didn't matter much because we were dominated in all facets of the game. But, in close games, these kinds of penalties can you lose you a game, all by themselves. That can't happen.

NFC Wild Card Weekend - Previews and Predictions

Saturday, 4:30 PM ET
Spread: Seattle by 3.5

Seahawks Offense vs Redskins Defense

• Seattle's identity on offense has shifted from a run first, rely on Shaun Alexander attack, to a pass oriented one. They must get a little creative in the rushing attack, perhaps running from some spread sets and that will allow them to be more balanced. The Redskins can thrive if they can force Seattle into a one-dimensional offense but while their secondary is good, they are still young and inexperienced. Look for some big plays in the passing game from Matt Hasselbeck.

Redskins Offense vs Seahawks Defense

• I like the look of the Redskins offense. They commit to the run with Clinton Portis and make big plays in the passing game when they are needed, which is the kind of effort you need when you are on the road in the playoffs. Seattle's defense has been great this year but their biggest challenge will be to account for Portis out of the backfield and not to get lulled to sleep in the running game and allow big passing plays. It will be a big advantage if the Seahawks can force turnovers like they have been doing recently.

Intangibles

• We all know what Washington has gone through. They are on an inspired run and its no fluke that they are in the playoffs. In the past four weeks they beat two of the competitors for the six-seed (Chicago & Minnesota) and two playoff teams (New York and Dallas). Seattle has a big advantage with the home field. If they can pounce on Washington early it could be a long afternoon for the Redskins.
  

Prediction

• I like Washington to get off to a good start, grab a lead and fend off a late surge from the home team in a tough battle. Redskins 20, Seahawks 17
  

Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
Spread: Tampa Bay by 3

Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense

• The Giants biggest enemy are their own selves. When they aren't successful it's usually because they are dropping passes, turning the ball over or Eli Manning is tacking a 15 yard sack. The key for Tampa Bay will be to shut down the run. If they are having trouble, it will open up play action opportunities for New York, which they excel at. Also for the Bucs, look to disguise coverages on 3rd and long and hope to force some of those "Eli Manning" bad decisions.

Buccaneers offense vs Giants Defense

• This one is pretty simple, Tampa Bay must protect the passer. The Giants biggest strength is their pass rush and if they get going, they will be difficult to stop. The Bucs must run the ball effectively and Jeff Garcia can't get greedy. He may have to throw the check downs a lot but if it moves the chains, then no problem. If they do protect Garcia well, then look for him to attack a vulnerable Giants secondary.

Intangibles

• The Giants probably don't mind being on the road, where they have won seven straight. The question will for them will be, after their tough inspired play from last week, will they pick up right where they left off or will they be emotionally drained and come out sloppy? The advantage for the Bucs is Jeff Garcia. He's very familiar and has a good track record against the Giants. Is that just a trend or does he really have a leg up?

Prediction

• The Giants will play a very sound game and come out on top of a back and forth affair against the unknown Bucs. Giants 27, Buccaneers 20
  

Q & A With a Ravens Supporter

My cousin Dewey is a Native of Baltimore and also a big Ravens fan. He writes his own Ravens blog and so we decided to exchange a Q & A about each others teams in preparation for this Sunday’s game. Below is our discussion about the Ravens. Stay tuned to BlogimoreRavens.com to see what I had to say about the Dolphins.

Ted: What has been the biggest reason for the Ravens lack of success this year and more specifically the current seven game losing streak?

Dewey: Baltimore's disappointing season started with the team's success last year. They overachieved with 13-3. They avoided injuries, caught some lucky breaks, and won a few games they had no business winning. Add Willis McGahee to the mix, and everyone starts talking Super Bowl.

But the injury bug hit hard, starting with DE Trevor Pryce. Without him, there is no pass rush, and with both of Baltimore's starting corners (Rolle and McAlister) missing significant time this year, no pass rush = bad news.

Also, Billick is terrible at play calling and clock management, and the Ravens schedule this year was more challenging than it was last year. Back-to-back-to-back featuring San Diego, New England and Indianapolis.

Ted: What are the attitudes of the team and fans going into this game? Do they feel somewhat nervous trying to avoid being labeled, "That team that lost to the 0-13 Dolphins or are they just confident they will go about their business and end their losing streak.

Dewey: The fact that owner Steve Bisciotti today leaked word that Billick will be back next year is not good news. Fans and players like Billick personally, but no one has any faith in him as a head coach.

Neither the team nor its fans are confident. Everyone is embarrassed. That said, I don't expect them to lay down and die. They will play hard this weekend and for the rest of the season. Maybe they'll take a week off when they're on the road against the Seahawks next week, but they don't want to lose to Miami, and they definitely don't ever want to lose to Pittsburgh.

Ted: Is their a possibility of seeing Troy Smith in this game, regardless of the score? How do fans feel about him and Boller and should they be drafting a QB in April?

Dewey: Now that Billick can breathe more easily knowing that he'll be back next year, I would be shocked if we don't see Troy Smith for a series or two (or more) this weekend.

Many fans love Boller as a backup in Baltimore, but very few of us think he is a starter (and there are certainly plenty of people who loathe him no matter what his role is). But I'm comfortable going into next season with Boller at the helm. I don't want Baltimore to draft a QB in April, at least not in the first round. I'd rather have them draft defense (CB, DE).

Ted: Finally, How do you think this game will go, and who will win?

Dewey: Baltimore's secondary is out. Todd Heap is out. The pass rush is gone. The confidence is shot. The coach is terrible. But Willis McGahee is still pretty good. Unfortunately, I don't think it will be enough. Dolphins win.

Wow, I’m surprised that he picked Miami to win, but I do know what it is like to lack confidence in your favorite team. I would have to agree that the tough schedule and Billick’s bad game management are the most to blame for the slide. Also, they have been unlucky (the Browns’ field goal that may have been illegally reviewed and the Patriots last drive with the 4^th down stops nullified). We’ll see what is in store Sunday afternoon. I think whichever team ends up with the +2 or better turnover margin will win.