Falcons 19, Dolphins 7: Recap

Revisiting the Keys

The offense could not get anything going for a long time. I said Miami should take some shots down the field early, to test the secondary and hopefully open up the field. Except for the one Pat White pass (great play call), they did not. I can't blame them too much though because the offensive line was getting beat and giving up sacks even on intermediate pass plays. Ultimately the problem was not being able to run the ball well early in the game. The line is a better run blocking unit than pass blocking, and it will be imperative for us to win on first down and not set up obvious passing situations.

Defensively, we did very well, particularly with Michael Turner. In fact we did better than I could have imagine with him as he was limited to under three yards a carry and did not break any long runs. Tony Gonzalez however, did make a huge impact. We saw the safeties rotate covering him and for the most part it didn't work. Now a couple times he just made outstanding plays that were indefensible, but I thought on obvious passing downs we could have done a better job of jamming him at the line or perhaps double covering him.

Special Teams didn't factor much in the game. For the most part the Dolphins coverage units were good. The discouraging element of the special teams game was not being able to get any decent kickoff return. I credit Atlanta's superb coverage units but also think the elimination of the three-man wedge plays a big role for a below-average Miami special teams unit.


Random Other Thoughts

• Not the best advertisement for Anthony Fasano who is trying to get a contract extension. The first fumble was tough and somehwat unlucky, but you can't cough it up twice. The second was especially inexcusable
• Our rookie corners will be targeted. Even though Sean Smith had an impressive preseason, Atlanta went after him and if not for some poor throws or drops, could have burned him big. I have confidence in Sean though and he will get another tough test against Peyton Manning next week.
• If not for the Immaculate Deflection in Cincinnati, Greg Camarillo would have NFL play of the week honors for that crazy ricochet, bring ball in with back of legs catch in the first half. It's unfortunate the referees did not call that properly in real time because it should have been a touchdown.
• Back to Pat White, nothing really of note happened today, but I like the potential for the WildPat, Whitecat, Spread Pat White offense. The key just like the Ronnie Brown led wildcat is the offensive line must block and give time for plays to develop and give our talented runners at least a small hole to run through. The pass play by White was a great call and hopefully he can be somewhat accurate on those in the future.

Look Ahead

The schedule doesn't let up, as the Indianapolis Colts come in for a Monday Night Football game.

Miami at Atlanta: Preview & Keys

Sorry for the gross inactivity lately, I've been very busy with work lazy. But the regular season is finally here so you can be expecting plenty of updates.So let's get right to it and discuss this week's keys to the games


Offense

Atlanta's defense and in particular their secondary did not show well in the preseason. The question is, will the Dolphins take some chances and try to exploit that weakness in the deep passing game, or will they stick to their philosophy and focus on running the ball and the short and intermediate passing attack? I think it's important they take some shots deep early and hopefully complete a couple to help open up the entire field for the rest of the game. We saw last year when opponents could put eight in the box, especially for the wildcat formation plays, we had a difficult time running the ball and moving the chains. This offense needs to make the proper progression this year and be able to defeat that defense, hopefully by preemptively showing the willingness to throw deep. I know Chad Pennington can't chuck it that far, but offensive coordinator Dan Henning must find a way to get some favorable matchups in the secondary and try to let our receivers make plays.

Defense

Michael Turner is going to rush the ball well and he will get good yardage and possibly some touchdowns, but we can't let ourselves get continually gashed by the running game. It is important that the front seven finds a way to get some big wins on first down by getting tackles for a loss and setting up second and third and longs. That way they can blitz stud quarterback Matt Ryan and hopefully get the ball out of his hands early and let our secondary make plays. They are improved, but we can't ask them to cover for more than a few seconds. The obvious focus in the passing game will be tight end Tony Gonzalez. We must find him on third downs and blanket him. Nothing is more frustrating for a defense than to give up third down conversions and Gonzalez is always a factor on those and also in the red zone. I actually think a good ploy would be to put rookie cornerback Sean Smith on him at times to see if that's a good matchup. Smith has shown terrific in the preseason and has earned the opportunity.

Special Teams & Intangibles

Last year Miami's coverage units were not good. This preseason did nothing to make anyone think they'll be better. It is imperative that they not gift away points by allowing long returns or making other mistakes in the special teams game. Easier said than done. Also, Atlanta was very good at home in 2008 going 7-1. The dome provides a lot of crowd noise and for the first game of the season after an 11-5, eight win improvement, we can expect the place to be rocking. Miami didn't have a problem with penalties last year but we might see some false starts today.


Final Thoughts

I love the unpredictability of week one. I can envision us picking up right where the 2008 regular season left off and scoring a win, but also I wouldn't be surprised if we struggled and Atlanta controlled the game. For that reason I will make no prediction and just hope for a Dolphins victory.

Wild Card Weekend: Atlanta at Arizona

Atlanta Falcons (11-5) vs Arizona Cardinals (9-7)
Saturday January 3rd, 4:30 PM, NBC
University of Phoenix Stadium
Favorite: Falcons (-1)

I haven't thought too highly of the Cardinals this year. They have feasted on a week division for six of their nine wins and have not played very well on the road. They also don't have a particularly good defense (19th in YPG and 28th in PPG). For a while, I was fairly certain they would not win a playoff game this season, but as the year went on I began to feel like they might be able to win one at home, depending on the matchup. Atlanta has had an awesome season and an even brighter future. For this game though, I think it will be tough. They have boh a rookie head coach and a rookie quarterback, and while those guys have done as good of a job as anybody, it get's significantly more difficult in the playoffs. It would be very wise of the Falcons to grab an early lead and hope that doubt seeps into the Cardinals minds. It will be a long day if they are trying to chase the game and come from behind against the high flying offense of Arizona.

Pick: Arizona 31, Atlanta 24

2008 Season Preview: NFC South

This has been the division of least dominance over the last five years. Each season, the team that finished in last place the previous year has ended up winning the division. Each team has won it at least once and been to a conference championship game. Will this season follow the trend? (Here's a hint, no.)

Atlanta Falcons



Last Season: 4-12

Why they will be good: Uh, I don't know. I think, much like the Dolphins, they can't be much worse. They had a nice draft and are trying to build from the bottom up. Just because they don't have a lot of proven NFL talent on the roster doesn't mean there is no NFL talent. Their success will likely depend on the immediate impact of rookies, especially quarterback Matt Ryan.

Why they will struggle: Did I mention they don't have much proven NFL talent? As we saw with the Dolphins last year trying your best doesn't get you much in this league unless you have some talent and ability on the roster. The schedule isn't mighty tough but they should be an underdog in most every game.

Vegas Over/Under Win Total: 4.5 - This is a tough call. My blind prediction was 4-12 so therefore I'd take the under, but I wouldn't feel too confident about it.

Carolina Panthers



Last Season: 7-9

Why they will be good: The Panthers to me have either been perennial under-achievers or perennially overrated. They always seem to be a trendy pick to surprise people. Do they have the talent and just never come through, or are they honestly about where they should be? I say the former. This team has talent and in this division should be good. It's a big year for head coach John Fox. The addition of Jonathan Stewart will improve the running game and help them control the clock and the scoreboard.

Why they will struggle: They played four different quarterbacks last year (more than the Dolphins!) one of which being 44-year old Vinny Testaverde. They must have one guy, likely Jake Delhomme, step up and solidify the position. That means playing well and staying healthy. If not the may have to resort to Matt Moore or Brett Basanez.

Vegas Over/Under Win Total: 7.5 - Another close one. I'll say over, barely. The schedule isn't too difficult and they should be one game better than last year.

New Orleans Saints



Last Season: 7-9

Why they will be good: I'm high on the Saints this year. They got off to a poor start last year and didn't finish well but for the bulk of the season played well. I love the addition of Jonathan Vilma and Jeremy Shockey. They have good players at the skill positions and now head coach Sean Payton has a little more experience. In this division and the soft schedule, they should thrive.

Why they will struggle: They must not get off to a bad start and have a snowball effect to derail the season. Consistency will be the name of the game for them. Also, with the game in London, they only have seven home games, along with nine road games, one of which obviously being a long way away. They better not get fatigued.

Vegas Over/Under Win Total: 8.5 This is the easiest decision so far. Over. They have four games against teams that were 4-12 last year. They should win those and at least five out of the other twelve.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers



Last Season: 9-7, Division Winner, Lost Wild Card Game

Why they will be good: They were good for fourteen games last year before shutting it down and then getting soundly defeated by the Giants in the playoffs. They maintain much of the roster that has a lot of veteran players that know what it takes to win. The addition of Warrick Dunn on offense and Aqib Talib in the secondary should help.

Why they will struggle: I think they overachieved last year. They took advantage of a weak division clinched it early. They will have a rougher time with the division foes this year along with games against the Cowboys and Seahawks. The veteran players are good to have but the risk of injury and fatigue at the end of the season is higher.

Vegas Over/Under Win Total: 8 - I'm tempted to say push but I'll man up and pick a side. Under. Like I said, the division and schedule is tougher.

Overall Outlook

Division Winner: New Orleans Saints
Wild Card Possibilities: Carolina Panthers

Be sure to stay tuned to all of the season previews along with the recap and season predictions.