Updates - Parcells, Mueller, Cameron etc.

Well it only took until approximately the 16th hour of the offseason for someone to be the first casualty of the Bill Parcells administration.


Randy Mueller was fired this morning. Most people, myself included, believe he deserves the biggest responsibility for the Dolphins downfall. He has only been around since the start of the Nick Saban era, but he has made some bad decisions, particularly in the draft. Just think, if you were an NFL team, and could raid the Dolphins and take any players you wish, who would you grab? Obviously, Jason Taylor, Zach Thomas and Ronnie Brown would be picked, but after that, there aren't many attractive and proven pieces for an NFL roster.

Now lets move on to Cam Cameron.


He will meet with Bill Parcells tomorrow and I can only imagine how uncomfortable that will be. There isn't much of an argument for keeping Cam and I expect he will be fired. For me, this isn't your average, "our coach sucks, we need to get him out of here," situation. I like Cam. I think he's a good guy, and in the right situation could be a pretty good NFL head coach, but not for us. Was it his fault we were crippled with injuries forcing us to play with inferior talent against a difficult schedule? No. But we shouldn't have been "1-15" bad. We should have been at worst, "3-13" and probably more like "4-12" bad.

There are tons of rumors floating around concerning the Dolphins. A recent one, is that the Cowboys VP of College and Pro Scouting, Jeff Ireland, is the target for the now vacant GM position. PFT is even reporting that Dallas has agreed to let us interview him and it is expected he will be hired at some point.

Also, there have been some names mentioned for the head coach position, should it become vacant. The one I've read most is Tony Sparano. He is also currently with the Cowboys serving as their Tight Ends/O-Line coach. Bill Parcells knows him from Dallas and apparently really believes in him. We shall see.

Starting tomorrow I will do a series that analyzes each of our positions (on the field) and describe our level of need for those players in the draft and free agency and also which players on our current roster we should keep. Tomorrow's installment will be about the defensive line. Here's a hint, there will be a lot of talk about this guy

Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins - Week 17

It's always sad to see your team play it's final regular season game when they won't be making the playoffs. It doesn't matter if you are eliminated in the final week, a couple weeks before, or a couple months before, it is the final chance to see them put one in the 'W' column.

The Dolphins have caught a break, if you want to call it that. Because we were so atrocious for the first fifteen games, we are mathematically locked into the #1 draft spot and we (thankfully) do not have to debate the morals of should the team tank or not to improve our draft position.

I believe Miami has a lot going in their favor for this game. First, the Bengals are a mediocre team at best. They had high hopes this season but they forgot that their defense is still no good. They actually remind me a lot of the 2006 Dolphins, lofty expectations, bad start, a couple nice wins but overall a big disappointment.

Also, Cincinnati put all of their effort and emotion into last week's game. They were attempting to defend their home field against a big division rival and deal them a damaging blow to their playoff hopes. They did it, but let's be honest, the Bengals MVP of the game was Derek Anderson, and he plays for the Browns. Now they must try to bottle up that feeling and take it on the road for the final game. I just don't see them coming out and playing a great game.

Miami, on the other hand, does have a big motivating factor. All the players and coaches will be trying to impress the new boss. Joey Porter said when Parcells walked out to watch practice that players were running just a bit faster and coaches were talking just a bit louder. In the end I don't think this will matter for any body's job security because Bill will watch the film from the first fifteen games and see what really went on here. But for this week, they will be trying really hard and should execute.

So in short, I think the Bengals will give the 'Phins a good opportunity to win this one, and with Miami's effort they will actually accept the chance.

Dolphins 24, Bengals 21

Picks Against the Spread - Week 17

Last week: 9-7
Season to date: 77-85-3

Dolphins this Week

• @ Miami (+3) OVER Cincinnati - Miami continues to fight and some players may be playing to impress Bill Parcells. The Bengals played their Super Bowl last week and should be mentally checked out of this game.
  

Path to Perfection

• New England (-14.5) OVER @ New York Giants - I think it'd be rather hilarious if the game that will get the most outrageous TV ratings for an NFL game ever is the only one the Pats happen to lose. It won't happen though.
  

Game of the Week

• Tennessee (-6.5) OVER @ Indianapolis - Nothing against the Colts B Team but the Titans have way too much on the line to lose to them.
  

The Rest

• Buffalo (+7.5) OVER @ Philadelphia
• @ Tampa Bay (+3) OVER Carolina
• Dallas (+9) OVER @ Washington
• @ Green Bay (-3) OVER Detroit
• @ Houston (-6.5) OVER Jacksonville
• Pittsburgh (-3.5) OVER @ Baltimore
• Seattle (+3) OVER @ Atlanta
• @ Cleveland (-10) OVER San Francisco
• New Orleans (-1) OVER @ Chicago
• @ Denver (+3) OVER Minnesota
  
• @ San Diego (-9) OVER Oakland
• @ Arizona (-6) OVER St. Louis
• @ New York Jets (-6.5) OVER Kansas City

Week 16 - Miami @ New England - A Few Thoughts

As you probably saw, the Patriots defeated the Dolphins 28-7 yesterday. New England stormed to a 28-0 halftime lead by basically out executing Miami in every phase of the game. In the second half the Dolphins played much better and the Patriots let off the gas which enabled the Dolphins to be the first team this season to hold the Patriots scoreless for an entire half. Here are some quick hit thoughts.

• I'm usually not one for "moral victories," especially in professional sports, but Miami should be proud they didn't let this one get out of hand and lose by 40+.
• It is still weird however, that a team can win the turnover battle 4-0, lose by 21, and still not be too upset about the defeat. That shows just how good the Pats are and just how bad the 'Phins are.
• As with any historically bad team, the Dolphins gave us two more bonehead moments. First, Lance Schulters great job in the secondary reading Tom Brady and getting in perfect position to make an interception, but having the ball go through his hands, without touching them, right into the waiting arms of Jabar Gaffney, who strolled in for an easy score. Also, the Illustrious Cleo Lemon, who on 4th and goal, rolled out, made a nice pump fake to freeze a defender, then ran for the pylon but neglected to either stick out the ball or dive forward resulting in being marked out of bounds one foot short of the goal line. Brilliant.
• Again, it's hard to focus on moral victories but Jesse Chatman ran well again, and Lorenzo Booker looked solid as usual. That coupled with the Bill Parcells hiring suggest their is no way we will take Darren McFadden come April.
• I don't like comparing a player to anybody but I might start calling Greg Camarillo, "Wes Welker-Lite." He could find a real niche as a slot receiver in the future and unlike Derek Hagan, when the ball is thrown to him, he catches it.
• It will be real interesting to see what happens to Jason Taylor. I love the guy and the more this season goes on, the more I want him to stay. I think Miami will have to be blown away by a trade offer (probably a mid-1st or a low 1st coupled with another early round pick) to pull the trigger.

So the Dolphins are 1-14 heading into the final game of the season. It will be a home affair with Cincinnati, who just had a great upset win over Cleveland to dent their hopes of playoffs qualification.

Picks Against the Spread - Week 16

Last week: 8-8
Season to date: 68-78-3

Dolphins This Week

• @ New England (-21.5) OVER Miami - The Patriots are beatable, but they are also due for a big blowout. The Dolphins may be able to ride their emotional surge into a strong performance and perhaps a close game, but they could also come out flat and fall to 0-6 in the division.
  

Game of the Week

• Washington (+6.5) OVER @ Minnesota - The Vikings can clinch a playoff berth with a win and a Saints loss. Minnesota played a bad game against Chicago yet still won. I think that's a sign of how bad the Bears are, not how good the Vikings are. The Redskins are playing real well right now and will continue riding the emotional wave.

The Rest

• @ St. Louis (+9) OVER Pittsburgh
• Dallas (-10.5) OVER @ Carolina
• Cleveland (-3) OVER @ Cincinnati
• Chicago (+9) OVER@ Green Bay
• @ Indianapolis (-7) OVER Houston
• Kansas City (+4.5) OVER @ Detroit
• New York Giants (-3) OVER @ Buffalo
• @ Jacksonville (-13) OVER Oakland
• New Orleans (-3) OVER @ Philadelphia
• Atlanta (+10.5) OVER @ Arizona
• @ San Francisco (+6.5) OVER Tampa Bay
• @ Seattle OVER Baltimore
  
• @ Tennessee (-9) OVER New York Jets
• @ San Diego (-9) OVER Denver
  

AFC Outlook - Week 15

Power Rankings

1. New England - Perfect
2. Indianapolis - Great
   
3. Jacksonville - Smart
   
4. San Diego - Surging
   
5. Cleveland - Determined
   
6. Pittsburgh - Overrated
7. Tennessee - Close
   
8. Houston - Surprising
   
9. Buffalo - Tough
   
10. Denver - Inconsistent
    
11. Cincinnati - Disappointment
    
12. Oakland - Improving
13. Kansas City - Disappearing
    
14. New York Jets - Losers
    
15. Baltimore - Embarrassment
    
16. Miami - Relieved

Playoff Projection

This is what has already been determined.

• The Patriots have clinched the AFC East, a first round bye, and home field advantage throughout, as the number one seed.
• The Colts have clinched the AFC South, and a first round bye, as the number two seed.
• The Chargers have clinched a playoff berth as winners of the AFC West.

Here's how I think it will finish.

1. New England - Clinched
   
2. Indianapolis - Clinched
   
3. San Diego - Clicking on all cylinders
   
4. Cleveland - Surprise of the year
   
5. Jacksonville - Tough out in the playoffs
   
6. Pittsburgh - They won the Super Bowl before as a six seed

The Dolphins Win!!!

In a game where both teams were desperately trying to give the other team the win, Miami finally grabbed in overtime with a game winning 64 yard touchdown pass from Cleo Lemon to Greg Camarillo. Congrats to the players and coaches.

Video here

MVP - I will split it this week between the Booker's. Marty had 8 catches for 88 yards and only one of his trademark drops. Rookie Lorenzo had 6 catches for 60 yards as well as some clutch runs including a 4th and 1 pickup in the red zone.

Surprise - Greg Camarillo. He's been mainly a practice squad and special teams guy. Coming into today he had one catch on the season. He caught three today, all on third downs, all for first downs, and of course the last one being the game winning touchdown.

Goat - Brian Billick. I can now fully understand why my cousin Dewey doesn't like this guy. His second half game management was poor. In my, and most peoples opinions, he should have gone for the win on the 4th and inch on the final play. Also, there were two plays that should have been challenged that weren't. They may not have won them but still.

Parting Thoughts - If the Ravens had gone for the 4th and gaol, like they should, and made it, like they would have, I would have had my first ever absolutely perfect score prediction (if you saw my blogimoreravens.com post you would have seen my 20-16 forecast).

Q & A With a Ravens Supporter

My cousin Dewey is a Native of Baltimore and also a big Ravens fan. He writes his own Ravens blog and so we decided to exchange a Q & A about each others teams in preparation for this Sunday’s game. Below is our discussion about the Ravens. Stay tuned to BlogimoreRavens.com to see what I had to say about the Dolphins.

Ted: What has been the biggest reason for the Ravens lack of success this year and more specifically the current seven game losing streak?

Dewey: Baltimore's disappointing season started with the team's success last year. They overachieved with 13-3. They avoided injuries, caught some lucky breaks, and won a few games they had no business winning. Add Willis McGahee to the mix, and everyone starts talking Super Bowl.

But the injury bug hit hard, starting with DE Trevor Pryce. Without him, there is no pass rush, and with both of Baltimore's starting corners (Rolle and McAlister) missing significant time this year, no pass rush = bad news.

Also, Billick is terrible at play calling and clock management, and the Ravens schedule this year was more challenging than it was last year. Back-to-back-to-back featuring San Diego, New England and Indianapolis.

Ted: What are the attitudes of the team and fans going into this game? Do they feel somewhat nervous trying to avoid being labeled, "That team that lost to the 0-13 Dolphins or are they just confident they will go about their business and end their losing streak.

Dewey: The fact that owner Steve Bisciotti today leaked word that Billick will be back next year is not good news. Fans and players like Billick personally, but no one has any faith in him as a head coach.

Neither the team nor its fans are confident. Everyone is embarrassed. That said, I don't expect them to lay down and die. They will play hard this weekend and for the rest of the season. Maybe they'll take a week off when they're on the road against the Seahawks next week, but they don't want to lose to Miami, and they definitely don't ever want to lose to Pittsburgh.

Ted: Is their a possibility of seeing Troy Smith in this game, regardless of the score? How do fans feel about him and Boller and should they be drafting a QB in April?

Dewey: Now that Billick can breathe more easily knowing that he'll be back next year, I would be shocked if we don't see Troy Smith for a series or two (or more) this weekend.

Many fans love Boller as a backup in Baltimore, but very few of us think he is a starter (and there are certainly plenty of people who loathe him no matter what his role is). But I'm comfortable going into next season with Boller at the helm. I don't want Baltimore to draft a QB in April, at least not in the first round. I'd rather have them draft defense (CB, DE).

Ted: Finally, How do you think this game will go, and who will win?

Dewey: Baltimore's secondary is out. Todd Heap is out. The pass rush is gone. The confidence is shot. The coach is terrible. But Willis McGahee is still pretty good. Unfortunately, I don't think it will be enough. Dolphins win.

Wow, I’m surprised that he picked Miami to win, but I do know what it is like to lack confidence in your favorite team. I would have to agree that the tough schedule and Billick’s bad game management are the most to blame for the slide. Also, they have been unlucky (the Browns’ field goal that may have been illegally reviewed and the Patriots last drive with the 4^th down stops nullified). We’ll see what is in store Sunday afternoon. I think whichever team ends up with the +2 or better turnover margin will win.

Picks Against the Spread - Week 15

Last week: 10-6
Season to date: 60-70-3

Dolphins This Week

• Baltimore (-3.5) OVER @ Miami - I have no idea what to think of this game. I've been burned many times this season thinking the Dolphins would get their first win. Thus, I'll pick the Ravens even though this is a game fit to be tied.
  

Games of the Week

• Buffalo (+5.5) OVER @ Cleveland - The Browns play well at home, but the Bills are pretty sneaky. So much so, that I think they could sneak out of Cleveland with a huge win. However, I'll stick with the Browns for the outright win, but Bills to cover.
  
• @ New Orleans (-3.5) OVER Arizona - It'll be a hangover for the Cardinals. They had an opportunity to go to Seattle and get back in the division race and stay in the lead for the wild card. Second road game in as many weeks and they will come out flat and the Saints will take advantage.
  

The Rest

• Denver (-1) OVER @ Houston
  
• @ San Francisco (+8.5) OVER Cincinnati
  
• @ Tampa Bay (13.5) OVER Atlanta
  
• Green Bay (-9.5) OVER @ St. Louis
  
• Jacksonville (+3.5) OVER @ Pittsburgh
  
• @ New England (-23.5) OVER New York Jets
  
• Seattle (-7) OVER @ Carolina
• Tennessee (-4) OVER @ Kansas City
• Indianapolis (-10.5) OVER @ Oakland
• @ San Diego (-10) OVER Detroit
  
• @ Dallas (-10) OVER Philadelphia
  
• @ New York Giants (-4.5) OVER Washington
  
• Chicago (+10) OVER @ Minnesota
  

Dolphins @ Bills, Ramblings

I haven't been writing much about the Dolphins lately because, well, they are pretty depressing. Anyway here are some random thoughts on tomorrow's game

• This game will probably look more like the ones in Philly and Pittsburgh, rather than last week's home loss, especially for John Beck. The offense will be back in mistake-prevention mode and should feature lots of runs, short passes, and punts.
• Lorenzo Booker MUST appear in this game. It should be close and low scoring and one big play could go a long way towards actually winning. He seems to have the most potential of our RB's to score a touchdown.
  
• Marshawn Lynch is questionable. I don't think it's a huge deal from the Bills standpoint, but as a DolPhan, I hope he is just unavailable to play. He was key for them in the game at Miami, scoring the TD and a 2-point conversion in the 4th quarter and running lots of clock before the game winning field goal
• I don't care who calls the offensive plays. Cam should, but if someone told him not to, we shouldn't make a big deal about it.
• The Bills, provided they don't do something stupid, like lose to a 0-12 team, actually have a good shot at making the playoffs. They will be 7-6, and with a win over Cleveland could move into the final wild card spot with the final two games against the Giants (could be locked into the #5 seed) and Eagles (could quit after being mathematically eliminated).

Prediction

• Bills 17, Dolphins 13
  

Picks Against the Spread - Week 14

Last week: 8-8
Season to date: 50-64-3

Miami Dolphins This Week

• @ Buffalo (-7) OVER Miami - I learned my lesson, I will not pick the Dolphins again until they win a game outright. The Bills have won five of the last seven, with the only losses to the Pats and Jags. They should cruise to victory over the mentally broken Dolphins.

Games of the Week

• @ New England (-10.5) OVER Pittsburgh - Stop the presses! The Patriots have failed to cover the spread in two consecutive weeks. It doesn't really matter, it still makes sense to pick them every week.
• @ Tennessee OVER San Diego - The Chargers are looking good but are 2-4 on the road. Tennessee should be rejuvenated after getting back into a tie with Cleveland for the final wild card spot

The Rest

• @ Washington (-3) OVER Chicago
  
• Carolina (+10.5) OVER @ Jacksonville - Letdown Alert!
• Dallas (-10.5) OVER @ Detroit
• @ Philadelphia (-3) OVER New York Giants
• @ Green Bay (-10.5) OVER Oakland
• St. Louis (+6.5) OVER @ Cincinnati
• Tampa Bay (-3) OVER @Houston
  
• Arizona (+7) OVER @ Seattle
• Minnesota (-8.5) OVER @ San Francisco
• Cleveland (-3.5) OVER @ New York Jets
• @ Denver (-6.5) OVER Kansas City
• Indianapolis (-9.5) OVER @ Baltimore
  
• New Orleans (-4.5) OVER @ Atlanta
  

Picks Against the Spread - Week 13

Last week: 9-7
Season to date: 42-56-3

picks in italics

Dolphins This Week

• New York Jets @ Miami (-1.5) - All bets are off, literally! It sounds really strange and idiotic but I think the 'Phins should win this game. Well, they better because this is their last good chance. The Jets are a bad team and if not for some critical special teams errors in the Meadowlands in week three, both teams would be coming in with a 1-10 record. (Update: As of Wednesday night, an 0-11 team is actually favored, and I'm picking them, stunning.)
  

Games of the Week

• Green Bay @ Dallas (-6.5) - This game is more important for the Cowboys, it'd be tougher for them to win at Lambeau than it would for the Packers to win in Dallas. It also reminds me of last years Saints @ Cowboys game where Dallas laid an egg and went on to lose three of their last four. They are better than that this year but they really need this one.
  
• Jacksonville (+7) @ Indianapolis - The Jaguars didn't stand much of a chance last time with Quinn Gray at QB at a time when the Colts were near flawless. This time however, David Garrard and the Jags are on a roll and a win could go a long way to helping their playoff run. They will keep it close but will fall just short.
  

The Rest

• Atlanta @ St. Louis
• Buffalo @ Washington (-5.5)
• Detroit @ Minnesota (-3.5)
• Houston @ Tennessee (-3.5)
• San Diego (-4) @ Kansas City
• Seattle (+3) @ Philadelphia
  
• San Francisco (+3) @ Carolina
• Cleveland (+1) @ Arizona
• Denver (-3) @ Oakland
• New York Giants @ Chicago (+2)
  
• Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-3)
• Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh (-7) - I'm surprised this game doesn't have a line. I'll update it if one becomes available (Update: As expected, a line has been announced, I'll reluctantly stay with the Steelers)
  

Monday Night Football

• New England (-20) @ Baltimore
  

Miami Dolphins Holiday Wishlist 2007

This is what the Dolphins should be asking Santa for.

• A win
• Some wins for other bad teams so we can still get the first overall pick in the draft
• A trade partner willing to give up at least two first round picks in order to move up to our number one spot (cough::Cowboys::cough)
• A shutdown corner
• Multiple players in the draft for our front seven
• A sure handed possession receiver
• A team willing to give up a 2nd round pick for Ricky Williams
• A refund on Joey Porter

Feel free to comment on anything else we should be asking for.

Picks Against the Spread - Week 12

Last week: 7-8-1
Season to date: 33-49-3

Thanksgiving Day Games

• Green Bay (-3.5) @ Detroit – The Lions have a tough remaining schedule. A win would go a long way trying to securing a playoff berth.
• New York Jets @ Dallas (-14) – The Jets breakthrough performance occurred last week. The Cowboys are in a groove and will win soundly.
• Indianapolis (-11.5) @ Atlanta – That is a lot of points for the banged up Colts to cover but they are due for a dominant performance.

Sunday Games

• Buffalo @ Jacksonville (-7.5)
• Houston @ Cleveland (-3.5)
• Minnesota (+7.5) @ New York Giants
• New Orleans (-3) @ Carolina
• Oakland @ Kansas City (-5.5)
• Seattle @ St. Louis (+3)
• Tennessee @ Cincinnati (+1.5)
• Washington (+3) @ Tampa Bay
• San Francisco @ Arizona (-10.5)
• Baltimore @ San Diego (-9.5)
• Denver (+1.5) @ Chicago
• Philadelphia @ New England (-22)

Monday Night Football & Dolphins This Week

• Miami @ Pittsburgh (-16) - I'd really like to pick the Dolphins to cover that large spread, but everything adds up to a Steelers rout. A full preview and prediction will follow later in the week.

Miami @ Philadelphia - Recap

This will be brief

• Cam Cameron did not put John Beck or the offense in the best chance to be successful.
• Beck didn't look comfortable and wasn't accurate on short throws. I attribute that to nerves and the fact no one made any plays for him. What I saw from him doesn't worry or impress me.
• McNabb going out helped the Eagles realize that they should rely on Brian Westbrook. That was the key to getting their offense on track in the second half.
• A BIG shout-out to the name sake of this blog (#19 Ted Ginn, Jr.) for a nice return for a touchdown that was NOT called back due to penalty. It's been a long time coming.
• Simply put, the Dolphins lack the talent to fully maximize the time when they are playing well. When the Patriots play well (I know that is 95% of the time), they build a three touchdown lead in a hurry. When we are playing well, we hold our opponent while the offense only provides us with one touchdown or a couple field goals which can easily be overcome when our opponent finally wakes up. I commend the players heart and determination and that alone should be good enough to win but it's the NFL. We need a couple more dynamic players to make dynamic plays to win us ballgames.
  

NFC Outlook - Week 12

Ten games have been played. There are six games to go. Here is how I see the NFC playing out (conference power ranking in parentheses).

EAST

• (1) Dallas - They are the second best team in football but is imperative that they keep winning, especially against the Packers in a couple weeks. They don't want to have to make a return trip to Green Bay in January
• (3) New York Giants- That was a big win to establish themselves as clearly the best non-division leader. They would have to really let down to miss the playoffs.
• (8) Washington - That could have been a huge win in Dallas had they been able to contain T.O. They are capable of making a late season surge to the playoffs.
• (9) Philadelphia - Their win over Miami shouldn't get people too excited. It looked like they lack the explosiveness or edge that could launch them into a late season push.

NORTH

• (2) Green Bay - I bet they don't mind the Cowboys being the flashy team that gets all of the attention. The Packers flat out get it done and have a favorable schedule trying to lock up home field advantage.
• (6) Detroit - My advice to them would be to stop talking smack and just lay low trying to get some wins. The rest of season schedule is difficult and they could be poised for a second half swoon.
  
• (10) Minnesota - I can't figure this team out. They can look real good but they lack the consistency. A good offseason could make them a contender next year.
• (13) Chicago - Oh how the mighty have fallen, it must be the "Super Bowl Loser" curse. They just have not been able to find ways to win. The offseason is going to be huge for this team as well.

SOUTH

• (4) Tampa Bay - Say what you want about Jeff Garcia, he wins football games. The Bucs are having no trouble taking care of a weak division.
• (11) Carolina - I love Vinny Testaverde, but when he is starting games for you this late in the season, you have a problem. Focus on the offseason.
• (12) New Orleans - I guess they had a lot of hidden weaknesses last year. The defense came back down to earth and now we are noticing how important Deuce McAllister and Joe Horn were.
• (13) Atlanta - Why on earth would you change your starting quarterback after winning two games in a row? They probably wouldn't have beaten Tampa Bay anyway, but what message are you sending to your team?

WEST

• (5) Seattle - Matt Hasselback is one of the underrated quarterbacks in the league. He leads his team and doesn't have any big name receivers or much of a running game this year.
• (7) Arizona - The Seahawks better not falter. The Cardinals are young and hungry and I love the way their defense attacks teams. They can get hot.
• (14) St. Louis - Nice winning streak! If it had started a few weeks earlier they might still be in the division race.
• (16) San Francisco - Not much more to be said for the 49ers. Their offense is inept and they have lost 8 games in a row. It's a shame they aren't on the Dolphins schedule this year.

PLAYOFF SEEDING PREDICTION

1. Dallas
2. Green Bay
3. Tampa Bay
4. Seattle
5. New York Giants
6. Arizona
   

Gameday Week 11 - Preview and Prediction

PREVIEW

When the Dolphins Have the Ball

• They must continue to run the ball well and not put the entire offense on the rookie quarterback.
• They should either go with max protections or run some quick outs to negate the blitz.
• Also, it will be necessary to go down the field and try to beat the blitz with a deep ball to keep the defense honest.
• We must avoid drop balls, false starts, turnovers and other self inflicted wounds.
• Play to win, don't play trying not to lose.

When the Eagles Have the Ball

• We must account for Brian Westbrook out of the backfield. He is the most dangerous RB, running after the catch.
• Don't let Donovan McNabb break contain.
• Force the Eagles to make long drives. Don't let them get the big long TD plays.
• Try to actually force a turnover and not just wait for a giveaway.

Intangibles

• The Eagles have a renewed sense of life in the playoff hunt after last weeks comeback at Washington. They should be well focused and hungry to keep it going.
• The Dolphins starters at the skill positions on offense are probably the least experienced bunch in NFL history.
  
• The Dolphins defense has finally shown up the past couple games and if they keep doing that, the offense will sometime be able to score enough to win.

PREDICTION

• Eagles 28, Dolphins 13 - I wouldn't be surprised if Miami played a good game and perhaps won but it's a lot to ask for a rookie quarterback. It will be a tough environment against a hungry team and unless the Eagles make mistakes and we capitalize, they should win soundly.
  

Picks Against the Spread - Week 11

Last Week: I was busy and never posted my picks. I picked straight up winners in a fantasy group but went 6-8 so it was a bad week.
Season to Date: 26-41-2

Dolphins This Week

• Miami @ Philadelphia (-10) - The "Phins this year have followed up each of their close losses by getting beaten soundly. The Eagles were able to right the ship beating Washington and need to keep the momentum going. John Beck will be a good quarterback but this is a tough game to ask him to win in his first NFL start
  

Games of the Week

• San Diego (+3) @ Jacksonville - If the Chargers offense shows up they could make a run towards the Super Bowl. If not, then they are just another team in the AFC that is multiple rungs of the ladder below New England. Jacksonville has a great defense and can run the ball, but how many games can they grind out victories?
  
• New York Giants (-3) @ Detroit Lions - The Giants don't want to lose and be involved in a playoff battle the rest of the season not to mention hear it from the fans and media about a second half swoon. They will gladly pass that duty on to the Lions.
  

The Rest

• Arizona (+3.5) @ Cincinnati
• Carolina @ Green Bay (-9.5)
• Cleveland (-2.5) @ Baltimore
• Kansas City @ Indianapolis (-14.5)
• New Orleans (+1) @ Houston
• Oakland @ Minnesota (-5.5)
• Tampa Bay @ Atlanta (+3)
• Pittsburgh (-9.5) @ New York Jets
• Washington @ Dallas (-10.5)
• St. Louis (-3) @ San Francisco
• Chicago (+6) @ Seattle
  
• New England @ Buffalo (+15.5)

Monday Night Football

• Tennessee @ Denver (-2.5) - These two teams are the best candidates for team not in my playoff projections to actually make the playoffs. This matchup makes up for a total dud this past week on MNF.
  

AFC Outlook - Week 11

Power Rankings

1. New England - They basically clinched home field advantage on Sunday without even playing
   
2. Indianapolis - I'm giving them a small pass because they should've won and they were on the road facing a desperate team
   
3. Pittsburgh - They passed a big test and basically clinched their division
   
4. Jacksonville - Got a much needed win, their schedule is tough over the next five weeks
   
5. Tennessee - Missed a good opportunity to bury the Jaguars in the standings
   
6. San Diego - Adam Vinatieri saved the Bolts from another rough week
   
7. Cleveland - With their schedule, it'll be a disappointment if they don't make the playoffs
   
8. Buffalo - They are lucky that the Dolphins ineptitude saved them from embarrassment
   
9. Denver - Big win to stay alive in the sub par AFC West
   
10. Kansas City - Will somehow remain in the race until the end
    
11. Houston - They are looking like the Texans of old
    
12. Cincinnati - Still no good, their wins were against my numbers 13 (twice) and 15
    
13. Baltimore - As my good friend Alex would say, "They are an embarrassment to professional football."
    
14. Oakland - And why isn't Jamarcus Russell playing?
    
15. New York Jets - Hope they enjoyed the bye week, the Steelers are coming to town
    
16. Miami - A cursed team, they held the Bills to 214 total yards and didn't turn the ball over but lost by three anyway.

Projected Playoff Seedings

1. Patriots - Obviously
2. Colts - Barely, over Pittsburgh
   
3. Steelers - A win over the Pats would drastically improve their chances
4. Chargers - Someone must win the West
5. Browns - Favorable schedule
6. Jaguars - Victim of a tough division
   

Gameday Week 10 - Preview and Prediction

I have been real busy lately and not posting much. Here are my quick hit thoughts for today's game.

• I am completely content with losing as long as John Beck plays at least one full quarter.
• Miami has played three absolute stinkers in Dolphin Stadium this year, outscored in those games 121-65
• The Bills are either much better or much worse than their 4-4 record. They should have won the games against Denver and Dallas but their statistical ranks are poor (31st in total defense and 29th in total offense).
• It's about time to see a Ted Ginn touchdown on a return of some kind.
• Did I mention that John Beck should be playing?
• Bills 28, Dolphins 24
  

Power Rankings - Week 9

I split up the two conferences because I'm too mentally challenged for a 32 team single table format.

AFC

1. New England - Anything less than 16-0 would be an upset
   
2. Indianapolis - They gave it away, but should feel good about a rematch
   
3. Pittsburgh - I'm still not sold they can beat the Patriots or Colts
   
4. Tennessee - They need to develop a passing game to be a real threat
   
5. Jacksonville - Their reliable defense was obliterated in New Orleans
   
6. Cleveland - They keep winning, but they need a reliable defense
   
7. Buffalo - Statistically bad, but they are 4-4 and should be 6-2
   
8. San Diego - Their offense didn't show up, that's a concern
   
9. Kansas City - Tough game against this season's team of destiny
   
10. Houston - Still not very good
    
11. Baltimore - They are falling off the deep end
    
12. Denver - 31st in point differential per game
    
13. Cincinnati - Rough, rough year, reminiscent of 90's
    
14. Oakland - They are not a good football team
    
15. New York Jets - As many losses as the Rams and Dolphins
    
16. Miami - Bye week stopped the bleeding

NFC

1. Dallas - Only lost to the Patriots
   
2. Green Bay - This years team of destiny
   
3. New York Giants - Bye week reduced some of their hype
   
4. Detroit - No comment
   
5. New Orleans - One of the best in last four weeks
   
6. Washington - They beat the Jets and Dolphins by a combined six points
   
7. Tampa Bay - Up and down goes the roller coaster
   
8. Minnesota - Adrian Peterson
   
9. Seattle - They will win the West by default
   
10. Carolina - They are going to the Super Bowl, right?
    
11. Chicago - They are not our of it in the NFC
    
12. Philadelphia - They needed that one bad, too bad it was against Dallas
    
13. Arizona - Same old Cardinals
    
14. Atlanta - Enjoy the win while you can
    
15. San Francisco - This was my pick to win the NFC West
    
16. St. Louis - They are still trying to score their 100th point of the season
    

Picks Against the Spread - Week 9

Last week: 6-7
Season to date: 26-41-2

Game of the Week

• New England@ Indianapolis (+6) - No secret here. This is the game of the week/season/decade/modern era. The defending Super Bowl champions haven't lost a game this season and they are still an underdog at home. What's crazy is that it makes sense. I think this game will be a tie and down the road they will need to flip a coin to determine who gets home field advantage for the playoffs. I'm also picking the Colts win outright by a score of 34-31.
  

The Rest

• Carolina @ Tennessee (-4)
• Cincinnati @ Buffalo (+1)
• Denver (+3) @ Detroit
• Green Bay (+2) @ Kansas City
• Jacksonville @ New Orleans (-3.5)
• San Diego (-7) @ Minnesota
• San Francisco @ Atlanta (-3)
• Washington (-3.5) @ New York Jets
• Arizona @ Tampa Bay (-3.5)
• Seattle (+1.5) @ Cleveland
• Houston (+3) @ Oakland
• Dallas (-3) @ Philadelphia

Monday Night Football

• Baltimore (+9.5) @ Pittsburgh - The Ravens defense should keep it close but the offense will have a tough time getting things going against the Steelers defense. In the end, Big Ben and Co. will make one more big play to win the game. Steelers 20, Ravens 13

Bonus Pick

• Miami vs. Idle (-3) - If there is any team to figure out how to lose a bye week, it's this years 'Phins. In all seriousness, if Cam and Co. don't select John Beck as their starting QB for week ten, it's as bad as a loss.
  

Giants 13, Dolphins 10

Cheers to Ted Ginn for getting his first career touchdown! But, it wasn't enough of course. Here is why we lost.

• Missed field goal on opening drive
• Cleo Lemon's fumble before the half to gift the Giants another field goal
• Dolphins had 2nd and goal from the two yard line and only get a field goal after a broken play

If you turn those few plays around it would be a ten point differential in a game we lost by three. There were just too many key mistakes to overcome. A tip of the hat to Jesse Chatman, who I've doubted, for playing tough and producing. You like to see that kind of attitude in a player when your team is struggling.

I'll do a full recap tomorrow. For now, I need to get a drink.

Gameday Week 8 - Preview and Prediction

When the Giants have the ball...

The Dolphins are screwed. The Giants have several offensive weapons that the defense will not be able to match up with. Plaxico Burress is otherworldly and Eli Manning doesn't hesitate to throw to him because even if he is covered, he will likely make the catch. Also, Jeremy Shockey, from da 'U,' is someone no linebacker can cover. If he is involved in the game and not dropping balls it could be a long day. Overall, unless we get a good pash rush (perhaps by blitzing sometime this century) and disguise our coverages well, it will be a high scoring affair.

When the Dolphins have the ball...

They must be able to run the ball with whatever lineup of running backs they use. I imagine Jesse Chatman will get the bulk of load with a possibility of seeing Patrick Cobbs or recently aquired Samkon Gado for a series or two. The offensive line must protect the passer. Here's a hint, double team Osi Umenyiora. Finally, if we are to have a chance, we can't turn the ball over.

Prediction

Giants 31, Dolphins 23 - It'll be within reach but New York is better and unless they make mistakes they will win the game.

I'd love to hear the British announcers calling this game for BBC but we are stuck with Fox. Maybe we can get some internet videos of this after the game before the NFL gets them removed.

Beating the Dolphins, A Curse?

How many times have you said after watching another Dolphins loss, "That team (the Dolphins' opponent) is happy and thinks they are good but they really aren't. They were just able to beat the worst team in the NFL this year and shouldn't really get their hopes up."

It first happened to me after the Jets game in week three. The Jets were able to build an 18 point second half lead due to poor special teams and defense by Miami but had to recover an onside kick to preserve a 31-28 victory. The Jets, who foolishly had playoff aspirations this year, then stood at 1-2 and seemed to be getting back on track. Since that game, they have lost four in a row, three to teams that are currently 2-4. New York is currently 1-6

The next week we faced Oakland at home in what most thought would easily be our first victory. Instead more terrible defense and timely giveaways gave the Raiders a win to get to 2-2 and have people talking about their resurgence. Since then, they had a bye week and lost to San Diego and Kansas City. Oakland is currently 2-4

In week five we should have beaten the Texans, but we stalled five yards out of field goal range, punted, the defense let Houston drive 60 yards in a minute and half to get a game winning 57 yard field goal. Again even though Houston needed some miraculous field goal kicking to save a game at home against the leagues worst, they got noticed and were talked about challenging for a playoff spot this year. But, since then, like the Raiders they have lost two straight division games and now sit at 3-4.

In total, the Jets, Raiders and Texans records since their defeat of the Dolphins, 0-8.

We can't write about Cleveland yet, as they have only had a bye week since playing the Dolphins. They do play the Rams this week though, so they could buck this trend.

Speaking of trend-bucking, the last team we played is the Patriots, and they won't lose a game, much less go on a losing streak, could they?

Picks Against the Spread - Week 8

Last week: 7-7
Season to date: 20-34-2

Dolphins This Week

• New York Giants vs. Miami (+9.5) (in London) - New York has won five in a row while Miami has dropped ten straight. Maybe the change of scenery will help the 'Phins, or hurt the Giants. A full preview and prediction will follow later this week.
  

The Rest

• Cleveland @ St. Louis (+3)- The Cavs made the NBA Finals. The Indians were a game away from the World Series. The Browns, well, they are on pace for eight wins, but can they keep it up?
  
• Detroit @ Chicago (-5) - The Bears need another win to keep the momentum going. The Lions haven't played well on the road.
  
• Indianapolis (-6.5) @ Carolina - The Panthers are 4-2 but their opponents to date have a combines record of 13-28. This could be a big statement win or they will remain stuck in NFC mediocrity
  
• Oakland @ Tennessee (-7.5) - The Raiders are one of the teams that looked great beating the Dolphins but are finding out they still aren't good. The Titans are this years, "find a way to win team."
  
• Philadelphia @ Minnesota (+1) - Why can't the Eagles win? The Vikings defense gave the team a great chance to win in Dallas but they couldn't
  
• Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Cincinnati - This should reveal if the Steelers aren't as good as we thought or if the Bengals aren't as bad as we thought.
  
• Buffalo (+3) @ New York Jets - The AFC East minus the Patriots is a combined 3-17. This game will probably end tied, even after overtime.
  
• Houston (+11.5) @ San Diego - That's a large spread. The Texans aren't great but should keep it close for the most part
  
• Jacksonville (+4.5) @ Tampa Bay - The battle for the best team in Florida. AFC>NFC
  
• New Orleans (-3) @ San Francisco -
  
• Washington (+16) @ New England - Washington has a good secondary but can they generate enough of a pass rush to hurry Tom Brady?
  

Monday Night Football

• Green Bay @ Denver (-3) - The Broncos got a much needed win, but they need to keep it going.
  

Breaking News: Chris Chambers Traded to San Diego

Yes, you read the title correctly. Here are my initial reactions.

• This is the first domino to fall in the rebuilding process.
• If the Dolphins can go 0-6 WITH Chris Chambers, then we can afford to go 0-6 WITHOUT him.
• Ted Ginn, Jr. must be the guy to slide into the starting WR position. This makes us happy here at TG&T
• A 2nd round draft pick (no matter how close is it towards the 3rd round) is more than I thought we could get for him. If this is true, then we got a good value for this trade, in my opinion.
• This trade makes sense. Name a wide receiver for the Chargers. Most would say Antonio Gates, and while he's the best receiver on that team, he plays tight end. San Diego needed a good receiver for the final dimension of that offense. The Dolphins meanwhile need to get 9th overall pick on the field more and acquire young talent for the defense.
• It is still sad to see Chambers leave. He has been a Dolphin ever since we drafted him in 2001 (a rare good pick by us). He has been a hard worker and gave us consistent production. He made the pro bowl in 2005.

Your thoughts?

Picks Against the Spread - Week 7

Last week: 4-7-2. Two pushes? Vegas needs to stop making three point spreads.
Season thus far: 13-27-2. If you picked all the teams I bet against, you'd be a rich man.

Dolphins this week

• New England @ Miami (+17) - I thought the spread would be higher, either way I'll take the points and hope the Patriots don't run up the score like they did this week.
  

Games of the Week

• Indianapolis (-3) @ Jacksonville - The Colts need to keep pace with the Patriots but the Jaguars need to keep pace with the Colts. Good job by ESPN to snatch this one up for Monday Night Football this year.
  
• Tampa Bay @ Detroit (-1) - Coming into this year, I thought this would be a Game of the Weak, instead it's a key match up to distinguish the good from the mediocre in the NFC.
  

The Rest

• San Francisco (+10) @ New York Giants - Are the Giants the hottest team in the NFC? Their schedule sets up nicely for them to be 6-2 for their week ten game against Dallas.
  
• Tennessee (-1) @ Houston - This is a must win if either of these teams want to keep pace with the Colts and Jaguars.
  
• Arizona @ Washington (-7) - Ouch, both Leinart and Warner are out and now they turn to Tim Rattay. The Redskins need to take advantage of this.
  
• Atlanta (+7.5) @ New Orleans - Game of the Weak. Did the Saints finally show up for the 2007 season or was it just a bad performance by the Seahawks last week?
  
• Baltimore (-3) @ Buffalo - The Ravens only two losses have come on the road to inferior opponents. They can't afford a similar letdown in the AFC.
  
• Kansas City (+3) @ Oakland - Why are the Raiders favored? Is the AFC West this bad?
  
• New York Jets @ Cincinnati (-6) - This is another Game of the Weak. Plus, each of these teams foolishly had playoff aspirations this year.
  
• Chicago (+4.5) @ Philadelphia - This is crucial. Both of these teams were picked by some to be in the Super Bowl but are currently under .500%
  
• St. Louis (+9) @ Seattle - The NFC West, Zzzzz.
  
• Minnesota @ Dallas (-9.5) - Will Dallas start to struggle or can they just bounce back to being far superior to the rest of the NFC?
  
• Pittsburgh (-3.5) @ Denver - This looked like a great matchup in preseason. If the Steelers want to be in the same class as the Colts, they need to breeze through this one.
  

First reaction...

The Dolphins lost 41-31. What a pathetic showing for the defense. They gave us absolutely no chance to win the game. Ted Ginn is looking better and should have scored if not for that bogus penalty. Let's hope the Cowboy's take care of the Patriots this afternoon.

Quick Preview and Prediction

Keys to the game for the Dolphins

• Punish the Browns secondary. This may be the one unit that is as bad as Miami's secondary. They have allowed a league high 15 passing touchdowns. We must be able to make big plays in the passing game and finish off drives for touchdowns instead of field goals. Cleo Lemon gives the Dolphins more of a deep threat than Trent Green but he must protect the ball. Having to punt isn't the end of the world.
  
• Defend the Run. We did a good job last week but we must keep it going. Our secondary is still no good and the only chance we have to succeed on defense is if we can shut down the run and play for the pass and hopefully make a few big plays. Jamal Lewis is out for the Browns which is a break for Miami, but the Dolphins have let unknown backup running backs run wild over them this year. No matter who lines up in the backfield we must limit big gains.
  
• Finish the game. This shall only apply if we have a lead or are tied late in the game like last week. In Houston, after the two minute warning with the score tied at 19-19, we had a 2nd and 9 at the Texans 39. We looked poised to gain a few more yards, kick the field goal, and hold on for the win. However, we didn't execute and had to punt it away. Then the defense let Houston march from its own 3 yard line to our 40 to set up the winning field goal. If we get another chance to win on the road today we must make the final plays to seal the deal.

Prediction

Dolphins 30, Browns 28 - This should be a high scoring afternoon. Whichever defense can come up with the big plays and whichever offense makes the least mistakes will win this game.

Getting to Know the Cleveland Browns

First Five Weeks - Results

Pittsburgh	Loss	34-7
Cincinnati	Win	51-45
at Oakland	Loss	26-24
Baltimore	Win	27-14
at New England	Loss	34-17

Offensive Statistics

Category	Value	NFL Rank
Points per game	25.5	7th
Total yards per game	348.6	8th
Rushing yards per game	110.2	16th
Rushing yards per attempt	4.8	3rd
Passing yards per game	238.4	9th
Passing yards per attempt	7.6	10th
Total yards per play	5.9	5th

Defensive Statistics

Category	Value	NFL Rank
Points per game	30.4	30th
Total yards per game	424.4	32nd
Rushing yards per game	157.4	30th
Rushing yards per attempt	4.9	29th
Passing yards per game	267	31st
Passing yards per attempt	7.2	17th
Total yards per play	6	28th

We should be able to move the ball on offense but we must avoid costly turnovers. Also, we need to score touchdowns instead of field goals. On defense we must continue to stop the run. The Browns should try to pick on our secondary like the Texans did. Whoever is playing safety must make a few plays to keep us in the game.

Week 6 Picks Against the Spread

Last Week - (7-7)
Overall - (9-20)

Miami Dolphins This Week

• Miami (+4.5) @ Cleveland - Miami has lost all three of their road games by three points.
  

Games of the Week

• New England @ Dallas (+4.5) - I'll give Dallas a pass for that trap game. In fact, the added emotion from that thrilling victory may help them in this tough showdown.
• Washington @ Green Bay (-3) - The Redskins are one play away from being 4-0, but the Pack won't lose two in a row at Lambeau Field.
  
• Carolina @ Arizona (-4.5) - Both teams are 3-2. How will David Carr and Matt Leinart fare as full time starting quarterbacks?
  

The Rest

• Cincinnati @ Kansas City (+3)
  
• Houston (+7) @ Jacksonville - This is a crucial game in a division where everyone is a contender. -
  
• Minnesota @ Chicago (-6) - Can the Bears continue to rebound or was their Sunday night performance an aberration?
  
• Philadelphia (-3) @ New York Jets - When will the Jets realize they should play Kellen Clemens?
  
• St. Louis (+10) @ Baltimore - The Ravens need to show me that they can score 10 points before I say they will cover 10 points.
  
• Tennessee (+3) @ Tampa Bay - Two surprise teams, I like Tennessee's defense.
  
• Oakland @ San Diego (-10.5) - It's okay everyone, the Chargers have finally shown up
  
• New Orleans @ Seattle (-6.5) - The Saints have to win sometime, don't they?

Monday Night Football

• New York Giants (-3.5) @ Atlanta - I'll take just about anybody against Atlanta right now.
  

AFC Power Rankings - Week 6

The Elite

• (1a) New England - Let's see how they handle their first tough opponent, an emotionally charged 5-0 Dallas side.
• (1b) Indianapolis - Will have the opportunity to gain sole possession of the top spot week nine against the Patriots
• (3) Pittsburgh - They are inching closer towards the top, you have to believe they would be able to beat New England or Indianapolis on a good day.

The Good

• (4) Tennessee - When you have a good defense and can run the ball well you are in good shape
• (5) Jacksonville - A couple nice wins on the road, A couple big division games coming up
• (6) Baltimore - Should be playing better, dropping those division games might cost them down the road
• (7) San Diego - A 41-3 drubbing of the Broncos in Denver shows they are ready to begin the 2007 season, finally.

The Bad

• (8) Houston - They needed a magical performance from their kicker (5 fg's, including a 57 yard game winner) to beat the worst team in the AFC at home
• (9) Oakland - They have already matched last seasons win total. Don't be surprised if they can triple that total before this campaign is over.
• (10) Cleveland - They get Miami, a bye week and then St Louis. They should end up 4-3.
• (11) Kansas City - No consistency, they beat the Chargers and follow it up with a stinker at home to Jacksonville
• (12) Denver - They've lost three in a row and were lucky to win their first two. They need to turn things around quickly
• (13) Cincinnati - Yeah they've played good teams, but your record is what it is, and it's not good enough

The Ugly

• (14) Buffalo - How in the world did they lose that game? Well, if you only score three points on offense, you won't win many games.
• (15) New York - Their only win came against the team right below them, it'll be a long season for a team that foolishly had playoff aspirations.
• (16) Miami - The effort and improvement are there, but the win column is still empty.
  

Monday Morning Quarterback

The Trent Green injury is discussed in the previous post.

The Dolphins should not have attempted a 56 yard field goal with 1:51 remaining. Jay Feely isn't a good at field goals from 50+ yards. If he were to miss or have it blocked, the Dolphins would have been screwed, we just couldn't trust our defense. We should have wasted more time though. We had a 2nd and 9 on the 38 after the two minute warning. In my opinion, we should have ran it twice, or at least on second down. We were running the ball well and only needed another four or five yards to get to a range of field goal that we should have attempted. Instead we threw two incompletions and the Texans were able to save all of their timeouts. Of course our secondary is a collection of players who should be on a practice squad so the Texans hit a few passes and were able to attempt a 57 yard game winning field goal. This is a different situation. There is no risk, if he misses or it's blocked, then regulation is over and we go to overtime. When the opposing teams kicker makes two 54 yarders and a 57 yard game winner, then you weren't meant to win that game. I feel bad for the 'Phins because they are trying hard and are getting close but the team just isn't that good.

The offense was good again. Quarterback replacement Cleo Lemon wasn't terrible. He could have been better but he didn't lose us the game and we were in position to win. Ronnie Brown had another great day of tough running but it wasn't enough. The reason why, is the red zone offense. I don't think we have a philosophy for the red zone and it shows. We settle for way too many field goals. If we could have turned one of them into a touchdown yesterday, then we would have won

The defense was a little better. They were able to stop the run finally, but it could have been due to Ahman Green's absence. Unfortunately though, the Texans picked on our secondary and Cameron Worrell in particular. He was the next contestant on "Who wants to play safety for the Miami Dolphins?" He lost and he was injured, I don't think we will see much more of him. I never thought I'd say this but, I hope Jason Allen starts next week. He was once a #16 overall draft pick, he has to make a play or two, right?

The special teams were also better. What can you say about Jay Feely, he's been a complete stud so far. Rookie punter Brandon Fields is improving, especially on the pooch punts. Our kick and punt coverage was a little better, not allowing any huge returns. Finally, our man Ted Ginn is showing improvement. His first kick return was 53 yards out to midfield, and he is finally going more north and south rather than east and west.

It was another heart breaker for the Dolphins, but what did you expect? They find a new and interesting way to lose each week. The team is getting better and will get some wins soon, but for now the team is just not very good and struggling to get the first W.

Trent Green Incident

Trent Green

It was a scary site when he lay motionless on the field. It ended up looking worse than it was. The official diagnosis is a concussion and he was released from the hospital and traveled home with the team. While watching the event unfold live, I immediately thought his career was over. Coming into this season you would have to believe any blow to the head might do him in. We'll see what the rest of the season has in store for him and whether or not he is healthy enough and permitted to play. For all Dolphins fans who were saying he sucks and should be benched, that is definitely not the way for it to happen.

Travis Johnson

Travis is the Texans player whose knee delivered the hit to Greens helmet while Trent was trying to chip him. When the play was over and Green lay face down motionless on the field, Johnson stood over and taunted him, drawing a 15 yard penalty. This was a classless play that got me about as upset as the injury itself. While the game went on, I was thinking to myself that I should give him a pass because it was in the heat of the moment and he didn't really know how hurt Trent might be. I knew Johnson ought to feel terrible after seeing him stretchered off the field.

Well it turns out I was wrong. Even after the game knowing what had happened, he had some interesting comments about the incident (At this time, if you haven't heard or read about his comments you should read this article, from the Miami Herald). First of all, it was a broken play and quarterbacks don't know how to block. Also, that type of block isn't against the rules and wasn't a penalty. How else do you expect a 37 year old non athletic quarterback to block a 300+ pound lineman in stride? To say that Trent Green, a player who has shown nothing but class, had intent to injure is incorrect. Secondly, to imply that he got what he deserved is an absolute disgrace.

The Houston Texans and the NFL probably won't fine or suspend him, which is okay by me. I just hope some players or coaches pull him aside and let him know how wrong he was about this whole situation.

Update

Peter King of Sports Illustrated discusses this further in his column this morning and was able to exchange text messages with Trent. The full article is here.

Gameday - Quick Analysis and Prediction

Dolphins Injuries

• Vonnie Holliday and Travares Tillman are out.
• Channing Crowder, Donovan Darius and Zach Thomas are questionable

Texans Injuries

• Andre Johnson and Jerome Mathis are out
• Jacoby Jones is doubtful
• Ahman Green is questionable

When the Texans have the ball...

They should try to rely on the running game. The Dolphins have the worst run defense and the Texans are still without their best receiving threat. If the Dolphins can improve against the run, they could give the team a good chance to win. However, if the Texans can run the ball it'll be another long day for the defense

When the Dolphins have the ball...

They should stick to their plan of featuring Ronnie Brown in the running and short passing game. The Texans defense will prove to be tougher than the Jets and the Raiders but if Brown can repeat what he has been doing then the game should be Miami's to win. Trent Green must take care of the ball and not throw costly interceptions.

Intangibles

• The Dolphins have never beaten the Texans.
• With the amount of upsets in college football, anything is possible.
• Ronnie Brown is trying to become just the second player to amass 200 yards from scrimmage in three straight games. Walter Payton is the only one to accomplish that feat.

Prediction

This should be a close one throughout, but when the Dolphins will need to get the ball back, the defense won't be able to get off the field. The Texans will get a late field goal to push the lead to seven with not enough time for the 'Phins to drive down the field.
- Texans 27, Dolphins 20

Miami Dolphins QB Situation

The Dolphins are 0-4 and while the defense has been getting most of the blame, Trent Green has been part of the problem as well. Let's examine his performance so far.

84/139, 982 yds, 5 TD, 7 Int. That last number is the big one. You could also add another one (the dropped pick in Washington in the final minutes) if you feel like it. He has looked great at times but has also made some poor decisions. His interceptions have come at costly times and always seem to result in points for the opposition. On the other hand, he has put together some nice drives at critical points to get back in games, which was something we didn't see a lot of last year.

A lot of people are insisting we start our rookie second round draft pick, John Beck. He are the issues to think about

• The team won't be challenging for a playoff spot, so if he doesn't win many games, it's not a huge loss. We could end up with a high draft pick if we continue to struggle. I am under the belief, however, that wins are more important than climbing up the draft board.
  
• Barring injury, he could start 12 games. That's a lot of experience. Rookie quarterbacks rarely do well and most say they shouldn't take a single snap in their first season, but look at Ben Roethlisburger. He did pretty well his first year and won the Super Bowl his second. The theory that rookie quarterbacks never do well and always end up being ruined is a trend, not a fact.
• He's already 26. He went on a Mormon mission for two years before entering BYU, so he is older and more mature than most rookie quarterbacks. The longer he sits, the older he gets. If you finally found a franchise quarterback, you don't want him to be settling in already approaching 30.
• Our trade for Green was a conditional pick. If he plays 70% or more of the teams snaps this year, it's a 4th round pick. If he doesn't then it's a 5th round pick.
  

Then there is Cleo Lemon. He is 28 and has some experience in Cam Cameron's system (in San Diego). He has only started one game (last years finale) and doesn't have much NFL game experience.

Finally, my take.

Four games isn't enough time to evaluate a QB. While Trent Green hasn't played great, he has shown flashes while trying to overcome our horrendous defense. The day our defense and special teams units show up, he should give us a good chance to win. He should at least start all the games before the bye week (four more games). Barring a miracle turnaround (we would have to be 4-4) he should be benched regardless of his performance. The final eight games should go to the younger QB's. Trent Green won't be starting here next year (unless previous said miracle turnaround occurs and continues), so Cleo Lemon and John Beck should get the final eight games, split up however the coaches feel. If it were me I would start Beck, week ten at home against Buffalo. If he struggles, then perhaps go to Lemon in later games. This should give Beck a great opportunity to get some game experience so he will be better equipped for the start of next season (which most Dolphins fans are looking forward to already). Trent Green will have to do what he was mainly brought here to do (impart his wisdom on Beck and Lemon while holding a clipboard on the sidelines).

Picks Against the Spread - Week 5

Hey, if I go 13-1 I will climb over .500%.

Dolphins this week

• Miami @ Houston (-5.5) - Full preview and prediction coming sometime this afternoon.

Games of the Week

• Detroit @ Washington (-3.5)- Two somewhat surprise teams in the NFC. Can the Lions move to 4-1 and continue to play like Jon Kitna said they would? Can the Redskins move to 3-1 and remain in front of the surging Giants?
• Seattle (+6) @ Pittsburgh - Super Bowl XL rematch. Seattle is still complaining about the officiating. Did Arizona expose Pittsburgh last week or was that just an aberration?
  
• Baltimore (-3.5) @ San Francisco - Both teams have playoff aspirations and both fell to 2-2 last week, this is perhaps a turning point for their seasons.

The Rest

• Arizona (-3.5) @ St. Louis
• Atlanta (+8) @ Tennessee
• Carolina @ New Orleans (-3.5)
• Cleveland @ New England (-16.5)
• Jacksonville @ Kansas City (+2)
• NY Jets @ NY Giants (-3.5)
• Tampa Bay @ Indianapolis (-9.5)
• Chicago (+3) @ Green Bay
• San Diego (+1) @ Denver
  

Monday Night Football

• Dallas (-10) @ Buffalo - The Cowboys are due for a letdown but not this week.

Pick's against the spread - Week 4 results

I'm off to a very Dolphins-esque start. I got two correct and thirteen wrong! (thanks to Buffalo and Arizona for saving me from a 1976 Buccaneers-esque performance).

Total Embarrassment

It's a sad time when the quarterback you had escorted off your practice facility in training camp comes back to your place and taunts you. Daunte Culpepper got the start for the Raiders and mode the most of it. He didn't light things up like his Minnesota days (he only 75 yds passing and 28 yds rushing), but he accounted for all five of Oakland's touchdowns, including the, "kick them when they are down," 4th and goal in the final minute of the game. I was one to say we should try to hang on to Culpepper, whether or not we had Trent Green. It is understandable, however, that the organization didn't want a QB troika of,

1. A 37 year old who with one hit to the head could be sent into retirement
2. A 30 year old whose knee could be in worse shape than Dan Marino's currently.
3. A 26 year old rookie who has never taken a snap in the NFL (John Beck).

Part of me is happy for Daunte. He has been one of the most athletically gifted quarterbacks in the league and is eager to show that his success isn't dependent on having Randy Moss lining up at wideout. On the other hand, I wouldn't advise him or his fans to think he is back. He was able to make a few plays on the oldest and what I will now say is the worst defense in the NFL (seriously, Justin Fargas?).

On a better note, Ronnie Brown had his second straight outing with LT-like numbers (200+ yards from scrimmage). In the last two weeks he has 38 rushes for 246 yards and 12 receptions for 172 yards and 4 total touchdowns. The highlight of the day was his touchdown run over B.J. Ward.

I'll have more throughout the week including

• Patriots 16-0?
• Bench Trent Green?
• How to defend the run
  

NFL picks - Week 4

Yes, I am starting a little bit late. If you must know I have been making picks for ESPN Pigskin Pick'em, but we are going to kick it up a notch here. I'm going to pick against the spread and watch in misery as I inevitably finish under .500%. So here we go, week 4.

Oakland @ Miami (-4) - I almost always pick the 'Phins, because I'm a homer
Houston (-3) @ Atlanta - Falcons might not win until Vick is in jail
Baltimore (-4) @ Cleveland - Ravens win, McNair gets the win, Boller the save
Chicago (-3) @ Detroit - They are begging me to pick Detroit, I won't
Green Bay @ Minnesota (+2) - The Pack can't go 4-0, can they?
St. Louis (+13) @ Dallas - Dallas will settle down but still win
NY Jets @ Buffalo (+3.5) - Jet's fans foolishly optimistic
Tampa Bay @ Carolina (-3) - I have no clue when it comes to the NFC South
Seattle @ San Francisco (+2) - Frank Gore, enough said
Pittsburgh @ Arizona (+6) - I'm drinking the kool aid
Kansas City @ San Diego (-11.5) - Fantasy players anxiously await this one
Denver (+9.5) @ Indianapolis - Colts don't win big anymore
Philadelphia (-2.5) @ NY Giants - Two highly criticized quarterbacks

I'll pick the MNF game on Monday.

Raiders @ Dolphins full preview and prediction comes sometime tomorrow or Sunday morning.

The Dolphins select, Ted Ginn...

"Wow that's surprising"
- Brady Quinn

Let me start this thing off by saying that I'm really rooting for Ted Ginn and John Beck. It was huge gamble the organization took to pass on Quinn but they got the guys they wanted. Let's hope they have long careers in Miami. Ginn was a reach at ninth overall though, we should have traded down.