Update: I've been MIA

I have been missing in action since Wednesday. The last half of last week I was really busy and over the weekend I got sick. In fact, I am still under the weather and very medicated. Anyway, in case you didn't know (which is likely because I didn't really announce it) I've started writing at Phin Phanatic. I am what is called a "Blog Contributor," meaning I post around once or twice a week. This week our "Lead Blogger" is in Arizona for the Super Bowl. That means the smaller contributors will have to post more to keep the site up to date. I am trying to post at least once a day this week to cover and since I am sick and short on time, I probably won't be posting much here. I'll try to finish up the draft series and get those up sometime today or tonight but for the rest of the week you should check out Phin Phanatic. It's a good site, and they actually have similar sites for most NFL teams. So if you're not a Miami fan, you can check out your team's blog. That's it for now. Have a good week.

Possible First Overall Pick - Glenn Dorsey (DT, LSU)

This piece is about Glenn Dorsey, who I believe is the second most likely player to be selected by the Miami Dolphins with the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft.

(image courtesy of espn.com)

Why He Might Be Chosen

Glenn Dorsey is one of, if not the best defensive players to come out in recent years. He is a very disruptive force in the trenches and could immediately contribute to a Miami run defense which was abysmal last year. Our biggest problem last year was our defensive linemen getting dominated up front and not putting our linebackers in position to make tackles near the line of scrimmage. Dorsey could be an excellent two-gapper who can take up space allowing others to thrive or penetrate and make tackles in the backfield. He is also a very skilled pass rusher from the middle and could contribute on passing downs as well.

We all know Bill Parcells' priority is fielding a good defense. Dorsey is the best defensive player in the draft is rated either number one or two in most "experts" big board. This would be a very logical selection. So much so, that about 90% of the mock drafts I have looked at have us taking him. Most fans are expecting him to be chosen and even though he doesn't play a sexy position most of them would be content if this happened. This would be the equivalent of if the Dolphins drafted Brady Quinn last year. Why do you do it? Because you are supposed to (Cam didn't get that memo).

Why He Might Not Be Chosen

Mainly, there are questions of how he would function in a 3-4 defense, rather than the traditional 4-3 he played in college. Is he big enough to be a true nose tackle or would we have to play him at defensive end? We really won't know until we try it out. That is a substantial risk for a guy who would be taken first overall. It would be much easier to draft guys who have played in a 3-4 or are the prototypical size for those positions.

Other than that, there really aren't many reasons not to draft him. Some may say he has some nagging injuries, but it probably just seems so because he never took time off and kept playing hurt. Also, he suffered the knee injury on a vicious cheap shot chop block which he couldn't avoid. To be honest, this is the most common sense selection, and if he isn't chosen it is because Parcells don't subscribe to conventional wisdom (which he has earned the right to do so).

Overall Thoughts

If he is selected, the transition from DT in the 4-3 to NT in the 3-4 will be a challenge. I believe he would overcome it though. Vince Wilfork of the Patriots didn't play NT in college but he has transitioned just fine. He is a little bit bigger, but not by much. Dorsey is one of the few can't miss prospects in this draft and it's hard to imagine him being a bust, wherever he goes.

I'd be very content and pretty excited about this pick. In fact, if it were up to me right now, I would draft him number one overall. Whether we play a 4-3 or a 3-4 or a hybrid is irrelevant. Glenn Dorsey is a great football player, not a great defensive tackle. Also, he has a good track record and is a high character guy and you know the new boss wants a lot of those guys.

Possible First Overall Pick - Jake Long (OT, Michigan)

This piece is about Jake Long, who I believe is the third most likely player to be selected by the Miami Dolphins with the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft.

(image courtesy of athlonsports.com)

Why He Might Be Chosen

Offensive Linemen are a pretty good bet in the top of the draft. Their have been far fewer busts from those positions than the skill positions. The Dolphins offensive line was pretty good last year and at times played real well. The addition of a solid tackle would further solidify this area and our men up front would be very promising.

Also, it would be much cheaper than selecting a skill position player. If we choose a QB, WR, etc. we will be dishing out a lot of guaranteed money on a player who could either be a supserstar or total dud. Last year, Joe Thomas, the stud OT drafted third overall got a five year deal for $42 million. The second overall pick, WR Calvin Johnson, got a six year deal for $55 million. We could save a lot of our cap space by choosing an offensive linemen.

Why He Might Not Be Chosen

The offensive tackle position is pretty deep in this draft. Just behind Jake Long there are other great options including Ryan Clady, Sam Baker, and Jeff Otah just to name a few. If Jake Long isn't significantly better than the rest, then why select him number one? We have the 32nd, 56th, and 64th selections as well, and if OT is a big need, we can find great value in the second and third rounds.

Drafting offensive linemen isn't exactly popular among average fans. The smart football minded fans (I'd like to consider myself one of those) realizes that these players are very crucial to having success on the offensive side of the ball. But, if he is selected and the team continues to really struggle, there is a good chance there will be a public outcry when some of the skill position players that we passed on are putting up great numbers. Now I don't think Parcells and Company really care about the public opinion, but they also know what it will be, and they may want to avoid it

Overall Thoughts

I'd be content with this selection. I wouldn't be too thrilled but I would understand how this can really help the team. If you asked me what side of the ball we should draft number one, I'd say defense. If you told me it had to be offense, I'd probably take a skill position player. I think it'd be better for us to look for an OT in the second or third round, like discussed earlier.

If he is selected, there will be an interesting decision that needs to be made. Vernon Carey was moved to LT last year and I thought he did pretty well. With one full year under his belt I think he could do even better. Jake Long, however, plays LT and plays it damn well himself. Would they move Carey back to RT or would they make the rookie do it? In my opinion I'd start off with Carey at LT and Long at RT. Jake Long was an excellent run blocker, but if there is any weakness in his game it is facing speed pass rushers like Vernon Gholston. I'd move him to the right and rely more on his biggest strength rather than his minor weakness.

Possible First Overall Pick - Matt Ryan (QB, Boston College)

This piece is about Matt Ryan, who I believe is the fourth most likely player to be selected by the Miami Dolphins with the first pick of the 2008 NFL Draft.

(image courtesy of si.com)

Why He Might Be Chosen

Bill Parcells believes the first step to having success in this league is acquiring talent. There is no question that the most valuable position to a team is the quarterback. You must have a talented QB to win. Look back at the Super Bowl winners. Very rarely did a team win with a QB that was considered average or below average. Most of them were won by players who would be classified as great or legendary.

You could also look at Bill Parcells history and see how important quarterbacks are to his rebuilding process. In his first year with New England, he selected Drew Bledsoe first overall and in a matter of a couple years the team was good again and played in a Super Bowl. Later in Parcells' carreer, he would rely on guys like Vinny Testaverde, Chad Pennington, Bledsoe again, and Testaverde again. All three are tall, tough, and have a strong arm. Matt Ryan does resemble these players in both physical and mental attributes. I wouldn't be surprised to see him drafted in the hopes he performs like Bledsoe did his first few years.

Why He Might Not Be Chosen

To say evaluating quarterback talent in the draft is an inexact science is an understatement. Sometimes you hit a home run (Troy Aikman, Peyton Manning and Carson Palmer, to name a few) and sometimes you strike out (Tim Couch, Ryan Leaf and David Carr, to name a few). No matter how much studying and projecting is done, it is impossible to predict how great or poor a QB prospect is.

The price attached to a #1 draft pick is enormous these days. Add on top of that, the position he plays is the most important and highest paid in the game, you have yourself a very big price tag on a player who hasn't played a snap in the NFL. Also, levels of hype and expectation that are unmatched are given to quarterbacks who are first overall selections. It is very difficult to produce immediately and please fans who are impatient.

Overall Thoughts

Originally, I was like most Miami fans in believing that we shouldn't even contemplate picking a quarterback until the later rounds. We do have an investment in John Beck, who was a second round pick and wasn't put in a good chance to succeed this year. There are numerous other holes for the team to fill and they should be addressed before the QB spot.

But, I would understand why Parcells might take Ryan and to be honest, I wouldn't be too upset. He has a high ceiling, as some would say, and I could see him being a great player in the NFL. The one thing I would hope for is that he plays right away. If he is your quarterback for the future, get him in there, let him take his lumps, and let him work through them. The team is going nowhere next year and they can't be as unlucky as last season and threaten to be the first 0-16 team. Play for 2009.

Finally, in the event of a trade. I think Matt Ryan's chancing of being a Dolphin would increase. I think he is highly coveted but the franchise doesn't want to select him number one overall and pay him that money when they can select later in the top fifteen and pay him less.

Upcoming Schedule For TG&T

This week I will do a series looking forward to the NFL draft. I will countdown the four prospects I believe are most likely to be selected with the first overall pick. This isn't necessarily my big board or how I think they should be ranked, it is just a ranking of the probability they will be taken.

Monday: 4th most likely
Tuesday: 3rd most likely
Wednesday: 2nd most likely
Thursday: The most likely
Friday: Sleepers and possibilities of trading down

Conference Championship Game Predictions

San Diego @ New England

I really want to believe the Chargers will win but I just can't. It's going to take a perfect game for them to accomplish that and with injuries and uncertainties it will be near impossible. There is a high likelihood that the game will be close and that San Diego may even lead as late as the early 4th quarter. The Patriots, however, are perfect, and they will find a way to overcome. The only hope for Chargers supporters is that reality imitates fantasy and Billy Volek plays like the end of 2004 and LT plays like all of 2006. Patriots 35, Chargers 21

New York @ Green Bay

Again, I really want to pick an upset but just can't bring myself to do it. The Giants have been on a very impressive run, but it ends here. This their third straight week on the road and sixth in the last eight weeks. Add in the frigid temperatures and it should make for a tough day for New York. The magical season of Brett Favre continues and he gets a February date with Tom Brady in Phoenix. Packers 28, Giants 17

Tony Sparano Hired

Tony Sparano has officially been hired as the head coach of the Miami Dolphins. He was offered the job early this morning and soon after accepted it. The Dolphins held an official press conference around noon. You can watch the video of it by going to the team's official website.

This is a good hire for Miami. They really need someone like Bill Parcells to coach the team, but since he doesn't want to coach anymore, having one of his understudy's to do the job is a good fit. From what is being said and written about Sparano, he is a lot like Parcells. He is a no-nonsense guy who works his players hard and demands accountability. Here are some notables from the press conference.

• He talked about appreciating his players. This will be big considering the stories about our former coach and how he didn't have good working relationships with some of our players.
• He echoed a lot of the same thoughts as Bill Parcells, mainly he likes people with character on the team and in the organization
• He talked about developing young players and how it is important to know what you have. This will be huge in the next year because we will have a tremendous amount of young inexperienced players on the roster. He must give them playing time to understand what kind of players than can be. This will be better for the team in the long run.
• He talked about the score being "0-0" in terms of evaluating players currently on the roster in terms of talent, potential and character.
• Surprisingly, he wasn't asked about the draft. I'm very surprised no one even brought it up, considering it is the biggest day of the year for the franchise.

Overall, I have some good first impressions of the new head coach. He had some of the usual new coach cliches but they were kept to a minimum. He seemed nice but not too nice, tough but not too tough. I look forward to the 'Phins heading in the right direction and improving.

Miami Dolphins 2008 NFL Draft Gameplan

For the purpose of this discussion I am assuming two things.

1. Miami will not trade the #1 pick. It is to hard to predict such a scenario because it would most likely happen the day of the draft. Also there is no way to know if a trade would bring us more picks, players, or a combination of both.
2. Miami will not trade any of their players for draft picks. This is also too hard to forecast. The only way to look ahead to that situation would be to rely on internet rumors, which are hardly ever true.
   

The key to this year's draft will be our first four picks which are as follows:

• 1st Round, #1 overall
• 2nd round, #32 overall
• 2nd round, #58-63 overall (spot to be determined by San Diego's playoff finish)
  
• 3rd round, #64 overall

Because of the lack of talent on our current roster and the quality and depth in this years draft, The guys selected at each of the above spots should be able to come in and start right away, or at least split time depending on the position.

When it comes to team needs, you can list just about every position. I think RB is the only position that is assured of being left alone. Quarterback is also an area that doesn't need to be addressed in these early picks. Here is the breakdown of how I think the picks should be used.

• DL or LB
• CB or S
• OL
• WR or TE

This isn't the order I am suggesting. We should use one of the allotted four picks on each one of these areas. The beauty of having many needs is that you don't have to stretch for a player just because you feel like that is your biggest need. Because we need help at so many positions, each of our picks will bring plenty of options.

This draft scenario would provide an instant impact to both offense and defense. On offense we improve the line and add a skill player. For defense we get help for the front seven and in the secondary.

There is one variant however, that I think would be acceptable and is very possible. This involves removing the WR/TE category and replace it by splitting up the DL/LB category. I say this because we know Bill Parcells is more of a defensive minded boss plus our offense has more good young players than the defense.

It should also be discussed that we are most likely going to play a 3-4 defense, now that Parcells is here. He isn't the coach or GM, but has talked so much about those people having the same philosophy as him, and Parcells is a 3-4 guy.

Now I'll briefly discuss each area.

Front Seven (DL or LB)

There is a very good chance this will be addressed with the first overall pick, or a top ten pick if we can trade down. Obviously the big names are Glenn Dorsey and Chris Long, but don't forget about Sedrick Ellis of USC or Vernon Gholston of Ohio St. If we opt to do the variant, where this category is split, I'd look for a linebacker taken with either of our second round picks. I like the idea of a young guy playing along side Zach Thomas in the middle, to learn the game from him.
Secondary (CB or S)

Earlier in the year I thought this was going to be our biggest need. The unit did get a little better though as the season went along. Will Allen was a very underrated corner and Jason Allen finally found a position and spot on the field and played admirably. Also, Yeremiah Bell, who missed the entire season due to an ACL tear, will be back. He had a great 2006 season and we should see him return to form. The guy I like the most is Aqib Talib from Kansas, but we would have to get lucky for him to slide to #32. If not, the CB class is deep and there should be good options throughout the first three rounds.

Offensive Line

Our O-line did play well early in the season but they tailed off towards the end. They deserve a lot of credit for the success of Ronnie Brown and the other backs success but they did break down in pass protection quite a lot. Most likely we will be looking for a tackle. It will then be interesting to see if the person selected plays at RT, or if they replace Vernon Carey at LT and move him over to RT. Jake Long is a guy who could be selected #1 overall or in the top ten if we trade down. I would have no problem with this, he is a beast.

WR or TE

Our players at these positions strike me as the kind of guys who would be selected near the end of a pick up game. Let's be honest, none of them are too great. Ted Ginn and Greg Camarillo showed some promise and should stick around but the others all have issues. Marty Booker has too many drops and the other guys can't get open. The name I'd love to see on the Dolphins is James Hardy from Indiana. He is 6'7", 220 lbs, the perfect big physical receiver we need to go along with Ted Ginn. I pray he falls to that 3rd round pick or we get greedy and take him in the second round.

Divisional Weekend Preview

Seattle @ Green Bay

First of all, you can't talk about this matchup without mentioning, "We want the ball and we're gonna score!" Now that we got that out of the way, I think this game may be a lot like that one. Both teams have great defenses and it is a cold weather game but for some reason I think the offenses will have success. In the end, its at Lambeau Field and the Packers defense will make the plays when needed. Packers 27, Seahawks 20

Jacksonville @ New England

There has been a lot of talk about the Jaguars being a team who can keep it close and maybe even beat the Pats. As much as I would like for it to happen, I won't believe it until I see it. Jacksonville had trouble when the Steelers went to a spread passing attack last week and that is what the Pats do 90% of the time. They must find a way to keep it a low scoring game because if not, it could get ugly. Patriots 38, Jaguars 17

San Diego @ Indianapolis

This is a rematch of the most peculiar game of the regular season. Peyton Manning threw six interceptions, the Colts gave up a punt return and kick return touchdown, yet they had a chip shot field goal attempt to win it, but missed. Both teams must play MUCH better if they want to win this weekend. The Colts should be more proficient on offense and will win at home. Colts 28, Chargers 13

New York @ Dallas

The Giants are hoping the third time is the charm. I don't think so. A lot has been made about the Cowboys' late season struggle and all the off the field distractions the past couple weeks, but this is a team that just wants to play football. I don't think they will crumble under pressure like last years squad. The Giants should make it a good game but they will come up a few plays short. Cowboys 24, Giants 21

Wildcard Weekend Thoughts & Divisional Matchups Set

Seattle 35, Washington 14

This was an interesting game. Seattle dominated the first three quarters but Washington was still in it trailing only 13-0. Then the tide turned and the Redskins in a matter of minutes took a 14-13 edge and recovered a kickoff setting up a great opportunity for more points. They missed a field goal though and the momentum was back in the Seahawks favor. The got the go ahead score and iced the game with a couple late pick-sixes.

This game breeds confidence for Seattle. They seem to be hitting on all cylinders and except for that 4 minute stretch early in the 4th quarter they thoroughly dominated one of the NFL's hottest teams. When the game was on the line they made the big plays in the passing game and on defense to seal the deal.

It's a tough blow to the Redskins. This was one they could have had. They had all the momentum in the 4th and were poised to take a four or eight point lead. The missed field goal however really took the wind out of their sails and it was a rather fast decline in the final minutes. Still, we will remember this Washington team for years to come because of their hard fought effort to make the playoffs.

Jacksonville 31, Pittsburgh 29

This was a great NFL playoff game. A fast start, dominating play on the road, a comeback, emotion, this one had it all. It was all Jacksonville for three quarters. They took a 28-10 lead and I thought it was over, but finally the things that happen when you are on the road in the playoffs, happened. The Jaguars turned the ball over and Pittsburgh scored touchdowns on three consecutive possessions. But with the game on the line Jacksonville rediscovered the magic and made the key stop, the fourth down conversion and the game winning field goal.

Those are the kinds of things when you are on one of those magical runs. Whenever a play is absolutely needed, it happens. The Jaguars are certainly the 'it' team right now and I can't wait until next week, where hopefully they will travel to New England and take on Goliath.

For the Steelers, it just wasn't their year. They improved and did accomplish a lot this season, but they will be disappointed. Things might have been different had Willie Parker not been injured, but they just weren't an elite team in the AFC this year.

New York Giants 24, Tampa Bay 14

Things started great for the Buccaneers. They played solid defense and marched down the field for a first quarter touchdown. The next two quarters however, were all Giants. They scored twice in the 2nd quarter to take a 14-7 halftime. The Bucs made a couple of key mistakes in the 3rd quarter starting with fumbling the opening kickoff leading to a Giants field goal. They later turned the ball over again with a poor decision by Jeff Garcia. Early in the 4th quarter the Giants went on a long scoring drive to ice the game.

After a sluggish start New York picked up right where they left off. The defense was swarming and the offense made plays and controlled the game. They will need to raise their level and play another great game though if they want to win in Dallas.

It was a great season for Tampa Bay, but they end up just like Pittsburgh. They just weren't an elite team in the NFC this year. Look for them to get a few more offensive weapons in the offseason.

San Diego 17, Tennessee 6

The Titans played a solid first half, shutting out the Chargers for second time this year. San Diego did a good job not getting away from what they do best. They still committed to the run and knew that eventually they would make the plays in the passing game. Tennessee had a crucial missed field goal early in the 4th quarter that would have made the score 10-9. Instead, the Chargers took the ball down the field and got the game clincher on a 4th and goal plunge by LaDainian Tomlinson.

It was looking like the same recipe for San Diego disappointment in the playoffs. They played a lifeless first half where they had trouble moving the ball. Luckily they got a big turnover to avoid a bigger deficit. If they want to win in Indianapolis they need to play a good game, not a good half.

Not to sound like a broken record, but it was a great season for the Titans. Not many people picked them to win ten games or make the playoffs (myself include). This is a good step for them but they must continue to get better if they want to keep up with the Jaguars and Colts.

Divisional Playoff Games

Seattle @ Green Bay, Saturday 4:30 PM ET

• The Seahawks must be more consistent on offense. When they get opportunities they need touchdowns, not field goals. On defense they should stick with aggressive blitzing and creating pressure trying to force some of those Brett Favre mental errors. The Packers will look to start fast and ride the home crowd. They still need to run the ball with the same success they have been having with Ryan Grant to control the game.

Jacksonville @ New England, Saturday 8:00 PM ET

• I think this is the game of this round that every neutral fan wanted to see. Other than the Colts, the Jaguars are the best matchup and stand the best chance of slaying the giant that is the Patriots. They must play better in the secondary if they want to win however, they can't allow the big passing plays to New England. For the Patriots, it is simple, just be yourselves.
  

San Diego @ Indianapolis, Sunday 1:00 PM ET

• This is a rematch of a peculiar game from November. The Colts played poorly but then should've won but Vinatieri missed a chip shot. That was in San Diego, this time it is in the RCA Dome. The Chargers will need a sixty minute effort and to capitalize on every opportunity to dethrone the defending Super Bowl Champions.
  

New York Giants @ Dallas, Sunday 4:30 PM ET

• The Giants won't be able to afford starting slow. The defense must create havoc from the first snap and hope that the offense plays efficiently. Dallas' running game will be their biggest friend in this matchup. Their two headed monster in the backfield has tailed off as of late. They need to be productive to take the pressure of Tony Romo.
  

Cam Cameron Fired

I am to busy to do a full post but I will be back with my thoughts and more news later tonight. Here's a link to the story.

NFC Wild Card Weekend - Previews and Predictions

Saturday, 4:30 PM ET
Spread: Seattle by 3.5

Seahawks Offense vs Redskins Defense

• Seattle's identity on offense has shifted from a run first, rely on Shaun Alexander attack, to a pass oriented one. They must get a little creative in the rushing attack, perhaps running from some spread sets and that will allow them to be more balanced. The Redskins can thrive if they can force Seattle into a one-dimensional offense but while their secondary is good, they are still young and inexperienced. Look for some big plays in the passing game from Matt Hasselbeck.

Redskins Offense vs Seahawks Defense

• I like the look of the Redskins offense. They commit to the run with Clinton Portis and make big plays in the passing game when they are needed, which is the kind of effort you need when you are on the road in the playoffs. Seattle's defense has been great this year but their biggest challenge will be to account for Portis out of the backfield and not to get lulled to sleep in the running game and allow big passing plays. It will be a big advantage if the Seahawks can force turnovers like they have been doing recently.

Intangibles

• We all know what Washington has gone through. They are on an inspired run and its no fluke that they are in the playoffs. In the past four weeks they beat two of the competitors for the six-seed (Chicago & Minnesota) and two playoff teams (New York and Dallas). Seattle has a big advantage with the home field. If they can pounce on Washington early it could be a long afternoon for the Redskins.
  

Prediction

• I like Washington to get off to a good start, grab a lead and fend off a late surge from the home team in a tough battle. Redskins 20, Seahawks 17
  

Sunday, 1:00 PM ET
Spread: Tampa Bay by 3

Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense

• The Giants biggest enemy are their own selves. When they aren't successful it's usually because they are dropping passes, turning the ball over or Eli Manning is tacking a 15 yard sack. The key for Tampa Bay will be to shut down the run. If they are having trouble, it will open up play action opportunities for New York, which they excel at. Also for the Bucs, look to disguise coverages on 3rd and long and hope to force some of those "Eli Manning" bad decisions.

Buccaneers offense vs Giants Defense

• This one is pretty simple, Tampa Bay must protect the passer. The Giants biggest strength is their pass rush and if they get going, they will be difficult to stop. The Bucs must run the ball effectively and Jeff Garcia can't get greedy. He may have to throw the check downs a lot but if it moves the chains, then no problem. If they do protect Garcia well, then look for him to attack a vulnerable Giants secondary.

Intangibles

• The Giants probably don't mind being on the road, where they have won seven straight. The question will for them will be, after their tough inspired play from last week, will they pick up right where they left off or will they be emotionally drained and come out sloppy? The advantage for the Bucs is Jeff Garcia. He's very familiar and has a good track record against the Giants. Is that just a trend or does he really have a leg up?

Prediction

• The Giants will play a very sound game and come out on top of a back and forth affair against the unknown Bucs. Giants 27, Buccaneers 20