Five Reasons Why The Dolphins Will Beat The Ravens

5. Jason Ferguson: In the week seven loss, nose tackle Jason Ferguson was injured in the first quarter and never returned. He anchors Miami's run defense and is the biggest reason for the turnaround in that department. He occupies blockers and disrupts the timing of rush attempts. Backup nose tackle Paul Soliai was suspended from this game as well, which meant the Dolphins played nearly the entire game in a 3-4 defense with no true nose tackle and a very thin defensive line rotation. That was a recipe for disaster. Miami was lost and allowed a big day on the ground to Willis McGahee, which also led to a good performance by Joe Flacco. That won't happen again. The Ravens will have a much rougher time running the ball, specifically in the red zone. The Ravens run the ball about 80% of the time they are in the red zone. Miami's defense has excelled in the that are late in the season forcing field goal attempts rather than allowing touchdowns. Look for that to continue.

4. The Wildcat: I know what you are thinking. Hey, the Ravens completely shut down the wildcat. In the week seven game, the wildcat formation was a big talking point before the game and the Ravens were able to blow it up and dominate it. At that time in the season though, the wildcat was a crutch for our offense. It's success was essential to set up the rest of our offense. The Dolphins were dependent on it. When it was stopped, our offense didn't stand a chance. That is not the case anymore. The formation and plays are thoroughly ingrained into the system and now it is a part of the offense rather than the focal point. Late in the season we have seen less of the wildcat and it now is just another bullet we have to fire if needed. If the Ravens shut it down, no matter, we will move the ball anyway.

3. 27-13, 20-3: 27-13 is the score from the week seven encounter in which the Ravens were looking for revenge for being Miami's sole defeated opponent in 2007. Congratulations. Now the revenge cycle is on Miami's side. They wish to atone for that week seven loss which was just very uncharacteristic of this team. 20-3 is the score from the last playoff game between these two teams and also the last time Miami was in the playoffs period. Even though no Dolphins are left from that team, the story is being brought up in the media and by the fans and the players feel responsibility to right that wrong as well. Miami owes Baltimore and this is the time. Everyone is picking the Ravens, and that's not surprising. I want it that way and so do the players. They like people telling they won't win and that their magical run is coming to an end.

2. Cam Cameron: When have you ever seen an offensive coordinator get a water cooler dumped on him for winning any game, let alone a regular season game, in the first half of the season? Well that's what happened to Cam Cameron for his initial return to Miami. I hope he's proud of that accomplishment because beating the Dolphins is not in this week's playbook. I already mentioned how the run defense will be better with Jason Ferguson. The pass defense has also vastly improved since that game. The week seven game was an easy one to call because of how poor Miami's defense was. I could have called plays for the Ravens that day and been victorious. Not again. Cameron will have a much tougher time when the run game is not proficient and he will have to put the fate of a playoff game in the hands of a rookie quarterback. Let's also think about his reputation in playoff games. He took the Chargers to two home playoff games in his tenure there and he lost both of them, most notably the 2006 loss to New England after a 14-2 season. He will have a great time with his offense that will fail, forward, fast.

1. Joe Flacco vs Chad Pennington: I like Joe Flacco. I liked him before the draft and I was glad he didn't end up with a team I totally hate. I like what he has done, it has been very impressive. Rookie quarterbacks rarely have success in the NFL but he has done it. But even rarer than rookie quarterbacks having success is rookie quarterbacks having playoff successes. Marino couldn't, Manning couldn't, Roethlisberger couldn't (although he did luckily win one game thanks to epic failures from the Jets kicker) and Flacco won't. Chad Pennington won his first playoff game 41-0 over Peyton Manning's Colts. In 2004 he beat Cam Cameron's Chargers. He's been there, he's won, he's lost, he's seen it all. He is ready. Joe Flacco hasn't seen anything like this, and before you say that he's too dumb to realize the situation and how that's a good thing that pressure doesn't seep into him, well, it's been said before, and it's been wrong before, and it will continue to be wrong. I'll take experienced quarterbacks over rookies in the playoffs every single time.

Week 17: Miami @ New York Jets, In Pictures

Ted Ginn Scores

I'll try to come up a full recap tomorrow but for now let's applaud Ted Ginn, who did a great job of running in the open field with no threat of tacklers all the way to the end zone. That gives Ginn two rushing touchdowns on the year to go along with another TD of the receiving variety. Click the image above to watch the play on NFL.com. Now that was a great way to start a football game. Ginn also caught four balls for a total of forty-four yards receiving.

Update: 12/17/2008

I have been inactive for quite some time here. I actually have about four or five drafts since my last post but I have never finished them. Now I will try to just present several thoughts in a quick hit form and hopefully be more active here at the end of the season.

• We all know the playoff scenarios by now, basically if Miami wins the final two games at Kansas City and New York, then they win the division. If that doesn't happen then we probably aren't going to the playoffs. It sounds simple but it should be plenty difficult.
• The Chiefs game is one I've looked at for several weeks with unease. It's never easy to go to Arrowhead and win no matter how poorly the Chiefs are playing. Also, I usually hate when this is said, but they are better than their record indicates. They have played some very tough games and should have more wins but they just don't. I hate playing teams like this. Hopefully the Dolphins come out strong and make me laugh at myself for having written this.
• Pro Bowl Rosters were announced yesterday and the Dolphins inclusions and exclusions didn't surprise me. Joey Porter is a starter, that was obvious and is 100% legit. Ronnie Brown made it but it's questionable whether he should have got in over Steve Slaton. Ronnie is deserving and the sexiness of the wildcat, combined with the fact he is not a rookie probably got him the nod. I like Slaton and he will probably be making pro bowls soon enough. Brett Favre made it and there is really no argument as for why he should be there other than the fact that he is Brett Favre. This is like the MLB All Star game when lifetime stars make it on name recognition alone. I expected this but it doesn't make it any less of a travesty. Both Philip Rivers and Chad Pennington are having better years and have more of a direct influence on their teams success.
• Since the New England game, the defense has not allowed a touchdown and has only allowed 24 total points in three games. I think the biggest reason why has been the defensive line. No one on that unit is putting up big numbers but there are two reasons why. One, in a 3-4 defense the line doesn't make a lot of plays, it is their job to free up linebackers to make plays. Two, we use a rotation in which five or six different guys each get a good amount of playing time, but too much. Randy Starks probably doesn't get enough credit. He's been good on third downs and several times have helped snuff out screen plays that had potential.
  
• Earlier in the year writer Mike Florio wrote an article suggesting that it's time for the NFL to abandon the current four team division format and try something else. Both the AFC and NFC west division show why this is a good idea and I agree. In the AFC west, the Broncos lead with an 8-6 record and the Chargers are still alive with a 6-8 record. In the NFC, the Cardinals have already clinched with an 8-6 record. I'm not saying the eventual division winners aren't deserving, but the system is flawed when a team like San Diego might finish 8-8 in a bad division and get to the playoffs and a team like the Patriots, who could go 11-5 in a tougher division might be left out. I'm not sure what the solution would be but this needs to be explored. Maybe go to two divisions of eight teams each, I don't know.

More later

Week Ten Picks

I apologize for last weeks picks. They were late and didn't include all of the games. I also haven't update the tally was to my W-L-T record. I'll get to that this week. Here are this week's picks. I am changing the format to save some time. I will only offer a brief explanation of my selection for games that are on national TV.

THURSDAY NIGHT, NFL Network

Denver (+3.5) @ Cleveland : This week will be the first true sense of desperation for the Broncos. It's true they probably should have felt it last week, but despite the loss, they are at .500% and leading the division. You could argue the Browns are the more desperate team (and the replacing of Derek Anderson with Brady Quinn adds weight to that) but they've already been through the rescue process (0-3 to 2-3) and I don't see it happening again.

SUNDAY

New Orleans (+1) @ Atlanta
Tennessee (-3) @ Chicago
Jacksonville (-6.5) @ Detroit
Seattle @ Miami (-9.5)
Green Bay (+1) @ Minnesota
Buffalo @ New England (-3.5)
St. Louis @ New York Jets (-9)
Baltimore @ Houston (+1)
Carolina (-9.5) @ Oakland
Indianapolis @ Pittsburgh
Kansas City (+15) @ San Diego

SUNDAY NIGHT, NBC

New York Giants (+3) @ Philadelphia: I love the NFC East. I know it gets a lot of talk and hype from the media but I think it is warranted because each team is real good and every divisional game is huge. You can't afford to lose or have any mini losing streaks or you will fall back quickly. The Eagles have been playing well but I just believe the Giants are on a mission this year to prove that their Super Bowl was not just a magical run, they are that good.

MONDAY NIGHT, ESPN

San Francisco @ Arizona (-9.5): The Cardinals play really well at home and the national viewing audience will give them even more adrenaline to perform. The 49ers can make this a game if they show up but I doubt it finishes within ten points unless Mike Singletary coaches without pants.

Week Nine Picks

Sorry for getting these up so late, but at least they are in before game time.

New York Jets (+5.5) @ Buffalo: I don't think the Jets will look awful for a third week in a row, especially for such a big divisional game. The Bills should win but this one will be close.

Detroit @ Chicago (-12.5): I won't pick the Lions under any circumstance until they win or lose by three or fewer points. The Bears may come out flat at home after a bye week against a weak opponent but they will wake up.

Jacksonville (-9) @ Cincinnati: Similar situation with the Bengals, I refuse to pick them. The Jaguars need this one bad and shouldn't let Ryan Fitzpatrick get in their way.

Baltimore @ Cleveland (-1): This is a toss up. The Browns are playing like a lot of people thought they would and they should win a big division game at home to get back at .500%

Tampa Bay (-9.5) @ Kansas City: I've seen this movie before. Last week was the time for the Chiefs to win but they couldn't finish the deal. The Bucs will role on the road.

Houston (+4.5) @ Minnesota: I think the Vikings can and should win this game, but there is enough of a chance that the Texans will do well that I will pick them. Andre Johnson has been out of his mind lately and the team is playing well.

Arizona (-3) @ St. Louis: This one has me stumped. I usually pick against the Cardinals on the road but I will break from the trend. The NFC West just needs one team to step up and stake claim to the division.

Green Bay (+4.5) @ Tennessee: Yes I doubt the Titans. I think they will have a slight hangover effect from winning the big Monday nighter and basically clinching the division. The Packers will want this one more.

Miami (+3) @ Denver: Most signs point to the Broncos on this one but I will take the Dolphins. They want to establish the run with Ronnie Brown and then exploit a weak secondary. Joey Porter hopes to keep the defense intact against a high scoring offense.

Week Eight: Buffalo at Miami Recap

By now I'm sure you have seen or read about the Miami Dolphins big 25-16 victory over the Buffalo Bills. it was a great second half turnaround that led Miami to an upset victory and another divisional win. Here is what caught my attention.

Three Up

Of course the first shout out is going to the namesake of this blog, Ted Ginn. He had his best game as a pro with seven receptions for 175 yards. He and the offense set the tone from the first play, a play action deep route. Then the Dolphins kept picking on corner Terrence McGee, who was either not 100% healthy, or not good enough to cover Ginn. On this day we saw Ted do things that wide receivers are supposed to do. Coming out of college he was an athlete who happened to play receiver. Now he is transitioning into becoming a receiver who is also a great athlete. He was able to use his speed effectively and find the open spots in coverage. Also he took a hit when needed and held on to the ball. You just can't say enough about his performance yesterday, and hopefully it is just a sign of whats to come with him.

It feels like every week Joey Porter belongs in this section. He is having himself a season. Yesterday he had two sacks, the second of which was the huge fourth quarter game changer, where he also caused a fumble that resulted in a safety. On that play he beat pro bowler Jason Peters with a swim move inside and fought of a double team from the left guard. He was unstoppable on that play. He also made probably the second biggest play of the game when Trent Edward inexplicably extended the ball on a quarterback sneak and Porter just ripped it away for the turnover. Also in case you haven't heard, his 10.5 sacks thus far has already tied his career high and he's on pace to finish with 24, which would be an NFL record.

I don't dish out a lot of special teams love here but Brandon Fields deserves mention. He downed two of his four punts inside the five yard line, one of which resulted in the big fourth quarter safety. The other was at the end of the first quarter which switched the field position and set up the Dolphins next drive at the Bills-37 yard line. Also of note, zero of the four punts were returned by special teams ace Roscoe Parrish, who surely would've wanted to please his hometown with his return ability. If you need proof to see how much Fields has improved then here it is. Last year he finished with 10 punts inside the 20 yard line and 6 touchbacks. So far this year he has 11 punts inside the 20 and only 3 touchbacks. With our special teams coverage still needing improvement his performance was key to Miami winning this phase of the game.

Three Down

There won't be much to complain about but in the first half especially there were missed tackles. The defense had a bend but don't break in the first half as they allowed three field goals, but the Bills were able to move the ball effectively and got help from Miami on numerous missed tackles by the linebackers and secondary.

Speaking of getting help, the Dolphins had five defensive penalties in the first half. Philip Merling was offsides on consecutive plays and Jason Ferguson also gave Buffalo a free five yards. Andre Goodman was called for a pass interference but the replays showed that the play probably should have been a no-call. They were able to overcome mistakes and turn things around but you can't make a habit of that.

The Dolphins running game was actually not so hot yesterday. They finished with just 52 yards rushing on 27 attempts. The wildcat formation was able to produce a couple of nice runs and Ricky Williams came through with a great touchdown run near the goal line, but again, we can't make a habit of this. Our offense will need to be more balanced to have continued success.

Look Ahead

Next week the Dolphins will travel to Denver to face the struggling Broncos. They had a nice 3-0 start but have lost three of their last four. They are coming off a bye week and should be well rested but there are some injury concerns. The Dolphins are trying to move to 4-4 before a crucial stretch of three straight home games.

Week Eight: Emptying the Cabinet

Q&A

I sent some questions earlier in the week to the folks at Buffalo Rumblings and Brian Galliford was kind enough to give me some answers and a Bills perspective.

1. What were the Bills fans' expectations coming into the season and how have they changed due to the impressive 5-1 start?

My expectations, honestly, were a playoff berth - but I've had that same expectations for years and have been let down over and over again. Yes, my expectations have changed after this start, mostly because of the play of Trent Edwards. 12-4 isn't out of the question for this team at this point, especially if we're able to do well within the division; a 12-4 record puts us near the top of not just the AFC, but the league. Lot of football left to be played, though.

2. What is the top area of the team that is improved from last year?

By leaps and bounds, quarterback play. We had consistency at the position in 2006 with J.P. Losman at the helm, but he regressed badly last season, and the Bills ended up switching between Losman and Edwards several times. This is now unequivocally Edwards' team, and it shows up on and off the field. Edwards has this team believing that the sky's the limit; I'm not sure they had the same feelings with Losman at the helm. Edwards could stand to throw a few more touchdowns, but for now, we'll take his leadership, poise and 70% completion rate.

3. What should the Dolphins and their fans be most worried about for this Sunday's match up?

I'd say stopping Lee Evans. Miami's secondary has been an otherwise tough team's downfall, and Evans has destroyed the Dolphins in the past. Most recently, he had two grabs for two scores in a 38-17 win last season at Ralph Wilson Stadium. I'm not sure I'm particularly confident in Will Allen's ability to stop Evans if I'm a Dolphins fan or coach, and the extra defender leaves Buffalo's secondary options open. The Bills have five players with at least 17 receptions on the season, including their two running backs, Marshawn Lynch and Fred Jackson.

4. What scenarios do you think would have to happen to lead to a Bills letdown and a Miami win?

Stick to the basics - control the clock and win the turnover battle. Knocking Edwards around clearly wouldn't hurt, either. But these are generally areas in which the Bills excel. The Dolphins are a tough, underrated team that have caught some tough breaks, but I still think the Bills are going to win this one. It's going to be interesting, though - a 1-15 Dolphins team took us to the wire in Miami last season. Should be a fun one!

Injuries

I'll probably check this out again when the Friday injury report is released and update this section but for now it doesn't look like starting nose tackle Jason Ferguson will play. He hasn't practiced this week and it looks like Paul Soliai and Randy Starks will have to pick up the slack at that position. Cornerback Michael Lehan also tweaked his hamstring and may not be able to play. If he can't go it would leave our secondary situation even thinner than it already is. Both Jason Allen and Tyrone Culver could get significant action for the first time this season. Blessing in disguise, perhaps?

LOLphins

This will become a regular feature but I'll introduce it now by resurrecting a moment from last years game that set back offensive football.



Prediction

I'll probably regret this but as you saw in my picks, I have instilled my faith in the Dolphins. It's actually more about superstition than it is actually having belief in the team. I usually pick them to lose, so I tried to mix it up this week. We'll see how that works out. Also of note, Chris Mortenson continues to pick us, and the always trusty Madden simulation has us cruising to an easy victory. Fantasy is fun. Enjoy the game.

Week Eight Picks

Last week: 6-8, Ugh the Bronco's ruined my chance at another .500% week
Season to date: 45-55-3, I lost a little more ground and need some big weeks now.

Oakland @ Baltimore (-7): The west coast teams will remain winless when traveling to the east coast for a 1pm game. I'm not sold on the Ravens, but they will move to 4-3.

Arizona @ Carolina (-4): Again, a west coast team traveling east, and the Panthers are a good team. I think they will grab a late touchdown to win this one.

Tampa Bay @ Dallas: I can't find a spread for this anywhere but I think the Cowboys will circle the wagons and get a much needed victory.

Washington (-9) @ Detroit: The Redskins are due for a dominant performance and what better candidate to be on the receiving of that than the Lions.

Buffalo @ Miami (+1): I'm breaking from tradition and picking the Dolphins this week. They will turn things around and take advantage of a Buffalo team looking ahead to a home date with the Jets.

St. Louis @ New England (-7): it is very hard to win three in a row in this league, especially if you are not a top team. The Patriots will roll at home once again.

San Diego (-3) @ New Orleans: This year's London match up is definitely more intriguing then last year's. Both teams can't afford to lose. The Saints haven't won on the road, and that trend will continue.

Kansas City @ New York Jets (-13): The bipolar Jets will probably step it up and look like a playoff team this week, after losing in Oakland the previous one. The Chiefs are still in bad shape.

Atlanta (+9) @ Philadelphia: i don't know why but I think the Falcons will keep playing well. The Eagles will start slow following a bye week but they will win it late.

Cleveland @ Jacksonville (-7): The Jaguars are rested up after a bye while the Browns are playing their second consecutive game on the road. This one should be pretty simple.

Cincinnati @ Houston (-9.5): I can't bring myself to picking a team with Ryan Fitzpatrick as it's quarterback anymore. The Texans benefit from a soft schedule stretch.

New York Giants (+3) @ Pittsburgh: The Giants didn't show up for their last road game but they will get back on track by beating an overrated Steelers team.

Seattle @ San Francisco (-5): I respect Mike Singletary and he will have his players ready to play and take a step in the right direction. The Seahawks meanwhile are falling fast.

Indianapolis (+4) @ Tennessee: I like the Colts in an AFC South upset. They realize it is a huge opportunity to get back in the division race and if they lose, they'll be fighting for a wild card instead.

Week Eight: Early Thoughts BUF at MIA

BEAST MODE

(buffalonews.com)

This Sunday the Miami Dolphins receive a visit from their AFC East rival Buffalo Bills. The Bills are a team I thought would be pretty good this year, as I picked them to make the playoffs via a wild card spot. I'd be lying if I said that I believed they would be 5-1 coming into this match up. They have played excellent football and remain in pole position in the division. This week is actually the start of three consecutive division games for them where they have a great opportunity to build a lead or keep things interesting.

Miami Offense vs Buffalo Defense

The Dolphins offense sputtered last week against a good Ravens defense. They were not able to run the ball effectively and the wildcat formation didn't produce anything either. Chad Pennington was able to throw the ball and put up good numbers but a pick-six on a third down in the second quarter really set Miami back in the game. The Dolphins also had two first half drives stall in the red zone and had to settle for two field goals. For Miami to be successful they must be able to run the ball, however possible. If they are to continue using the wildcat, then I would like to see two things. First, I think we should use one of the trick plays early, to keep the defense honest. Even if it doesn't work, they will know they can't just sell out for a Ronnie Brown run. Also, I would like to see a change in personnel for the wing back. Ricky Williams hasn't found his groove yet and I think we should use our speediest player, Ted Ginn, in that role.

Buffalo's defense is one of the more underrated units in the NFL. They don't overwhelm you with stats or turnovers but the thing that caught my eye when glancing at their schedule was that they've held their opponent to 16 or less points in four of their six games. They come up with the key stops and will give their offense a chance to win the game. I mentioned the Dolphins red zone opportunities above and I think that area will be the most important in this game. The Dolphins should move the ball but if they settle for field goals, it won't be good enough.

Buffalo Offense vs Miami Defense

The Dolphins defense was not very good this past week. They could not stop the run which was due in large part (literally and figuratively) to the absence of backup nose tackle Paul Soliai and the early injury to starter Jason Ferguson. Randy Starks tried to pick up the slack but he is not a true NT, and probably doesn't see too many reps in practice at that spot. This is the most important position in the 3-4 when it comes to stopping the run. You must clog the middle and occupy blockers to allow the linebackers to roam and make plays. Soliai should be back after serving a team issued one game suspension and Ferguson is listed as day to day. Miami's biggest issue on defense is pass coverage. The secondary has allowed a lot of big pays and key conversions on third and long. They must be bouyed by a good pass rush but it is still their job to make a play, and there hasn't been many made. Another big problem is dropped interceptions. It is very deflating when you are in position to take advantage of a mistake by the offense and instead you give them another chance. We can't have any more of that.

The Bills offense is similar to their defense as they don't jump out at you as exciting or dominant, but they just get the job done. Marshawn Lynch is good running back and if you allow him space he will make you pay big time. It's also important to wrap him up and don't let him use his strength to break tackles and make extra yards. The most worrying thing about their passng game is Lee Evans. It seems every week he is scoring a touchdown on a long bomb. Against Miami's defense that could be a good recipe for success. Ultimately it will come down to the runing game though. If Miami can stop the run, then the defense can be set up to defend the pass and make plays.

I'll have more later this week, hopefully another Q&A with a blogger.

Week Seven Recap: Ravens at Dolphins

(sun-sentinel.com)

That was a stinker. Miami just never got in sync in this game and Baltimore took advantage. A pick-six in the second quarter gave the Ravens the lead and the Dolphins were playing catchup the rest of the afternoon. Here is a little three up, three down on Miami's performance.

Three Up

1. Ted Ginn, Jr. was inserted on kickoff returns and did a nice job. He had a couple nice ones early in the game and then the Ravnes started doing shorter pooch kicks, to limit his TD potential. He is clearly a better option than Davone Bess. He also caught four passes for 48 yards as a receiver.
2. Yeremiah Bell is the only good thing in the Dolphins secondary these days. He led the team with eight tackles (which probably isn't a good thing when your safety is a leading tackler) and also had a crucial forced fumble that temporarily kept us in the game. He is looking like the playmaker we came to know in 2006. Too bad he doesn't have much help back there.
3. Joey Porter turned in another good pass rushing performance. He recorded two more sacks, giving him eight and a half on the season thus far. We needed a big year from him to help our young defense and he is delivering.
   

Three Down

1. The Red Zone Offense and Defense was poor yesterday. Coming into the game, the Dolphins had scored 15 touchdowns and only attempted 4 field goals. In the first half, twice they had the ball inside the 15 yard line and settled for two short field goals. On defense, Miami allowed a huge red zone touchdown on third and nine from the eleven yard line right before the half. Also in the fourth quarter they allowed a rushing touchdown allowing the lead to get to 14 instead of 10, effectively ending the game. In our four trips, we scored 13 points. In their three trips, they scored 17 points. Unacceptable.
2. The Wildcat Formation was stopped for this first time. I'll give credit to the Ravens defense, who said they would not allow that to beat them, but I must say I don't think the formation was used properly. Early in the game, Ronnie Brown kept it most of the time and the Ravens were selling out for the inside runs. They maintained their gap responsibility and tackled well to shut it down. Last week in Houston we used the trick plays before the normal Ronnie runs to keep the defense honest. This week it just seemed like they expected Ronnie to bail them out. It didn't work.
3. The Pass Defense continues to struggle. I know the defense didn't stop the run well, which makes it tougher to defend the pass, but this group doesn't make plays and allows big third down conversion for opposng offenses. When you get down to it, the pass defense only seems to do well when we stop the run and get a good pass rush. When that happens, anybody can play good pass defense. Yeremiah Bell and Will Allen are the only solid players and even they can improve. The front office did nothing to improve this area in the offseason and we are paying for it now. It will need to be a high priority this spring.

Random Thoughts

• Was it really necessary to give Cam Cameron a gatorade bath. First of all, you just beat a now 2-4 team. Also, it's not like offensive ingenuity was needed. They ran the ball well and that set up everything else.
• Ricky Williams received a lot of local hype coming into this year but he hasn't found his stride. He had a good game in New England (who didn't?) but since has struggled to make big runs and fit with the offense. He is getting less carries, and I wouldn't be surprised if the wildcat formation had a new wing back this week.
• The nose tackle situation really hurt Miami yesterday. Backup Paul Soliai was suspended and starter Jason Ferguson was injured early and didn't return. He is the key man for our run defense and his absence was notable. Randy Starks has been playing well but he is not a 3-4 NT and that showed on Sunday.
• I can't get mad at Chad Pennington's pick-six. We were in the sixth game and that was his first real bad game changing decision. It put us in a bad spot and we didn't recover. He is still the right man for this team though.
• I don't know what's in the water down here but opposing punters have killed the Dolphins. This time it was Sam Koch who averaged 59 yards for three punts. It is very deflating when you get field position that is 20 or so yards worse than you thought it'd be.
  

That's about it for now. Up this week is a tough matchup with the Buffalo Bills at home.

Week Seven Picks

Last week: 7-7 (In this economy, not losing, is winning!)
Season to date: 39-47-3

San Diego (+1) @ Buffalo: San Diego is on a mission now and they realize they can't afford to lose. I usually like the Bills at home, but not this week.

New Orleans (+3) @ Carolina: This should be a close one. The Saints seem to have been hit or miss this year but I'll take Drew Brees in this one.

Minnesota @ Chicago (-3): Both teams played the Lions recently. One team crushed them and the other squeaked out a 12-10 victory. I'm taking the Bears.

Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati (+9.5): I keep picking the Bengals and I'm not sure why. Hopefully they get up for this division game at home and keep it close.

Tennessee (-9) @ Kansas City: The Titans will remain undefeated.

Baltimore (+3) @ Miami: I have been awful picking Dolphins games this year. I think they could and probably should win at home, but the Ravens remember last year and will want to atone.

San Francisco (+10.5) @ New York Giants: We've seen too many upsets for me to be picking teams giving up a lot of points. The 49ers are good enough to keep this close.

Dallas (-7) @ St. Louis: I'm not too confident but I think the Cowboys will overcome all the distractions to beat a stingy Rams team.

Detroit @ Houston (-9.5): Houston will win, but it will be close.

Indianapolis (-1) @ Green Bay: The Colts have found themselves and even with the loss of Joseph Addai, I like them to win this one.

New York Jets @ Oakland (+3) : I don't know why but I'll take the Raiders. The Jets didn't have a good trip out west earlier in the year, and they will do the same this week.

Cleveland (+9) @ Washington: The Redskins should win this one, but the Browns are coming off a nice win and finally feel good about themselves.

Seattle (+10.5) @ Tampa Bay: I do like the Bucs, especially at home, but I think the Seahawks are do to play well and keep this close.

Denver (+3) @ New England: The Patriots reputation and the recent struggles of the Broncos have influenced this line, but I believe the Broncos are a better team and will prove it.

Week Six Picks

Last Week: 7-5-2 I hate those three point spreads that lead to many ties, but I'll take being over .500% for a second consecutive week.

Season to Date: 32-40-3 Slowly becoming respectable

Chicago (-3) @ Atlanta: I like what Atlanta has done, but the Bears are quietly playing real well and know that the NFC North can be theirs. They should take care of business.

Oakland @ New Orleans (-7.5): I'm always on the Saints bandwagon and they usually let me down. They are at home again and should have a sense of urgency. I'm not too confident though.

Carolina @ Tampa Bay (-1): This is a crucial NFC South battle early in the year. Both teams have surprised me but I like the Bucs to play well on their home field.

St. Louis (+13.5) @ Washington: I will probably regret this but I feel this is a trap game for the Redskins. They are coming off two huge divisional battles and the Rams are coming off a bye with a new coach. The Redskins will avoid total embarrassment but I don't think they will cover.

Cincinnati (+6) @ New York Jets: This is another one I may smack myself for later but I just feel the Bengals are ready to win and the Jets will continue their inconsistent play.

Detroit @ Minnesota (-13.5): The Vikings must start to play better if they want to keep up with the Bears. That starts with a smooth victory over the hapless Lions.

Miami @ Houston (-3): If I was an actual gambler, I would go nowhere near this game. We don't know if the Dolphins are for real and we don't know if the Texans are that bad. This one can go anywhere.

Baltimore @ Indianapolis (-4): Indianapolis just has to play better at some point. Plus they are 0-2 in their new building this year and they desperately want to please the fans. The Ravens are improved but don't have the offense rolling yet.

Jacksonville @ Denver (-3.5): I'm disappointed in the Jags, as I picked them to win the AFC South. This is a great opportunity for them to step up and announce themselves again but I just don't think they will keep pace with the Denver offense.

Dallas @ Arizona (+5): The Cardinals have played extremely well at home and they should be fired up for America's team. I'm not sure if they get the win but this should be a close game.

Philadelphia (-4.5) @ San Francisco: I don't know what to think about this one. I'll go with the best division in football, the NFC East.

Green Bay @ Seattle (-1): I don't know what happened to either of these teams. I thought they would both be better than where they are at now. I'll go with the home team.

New England (+6) @ San Diego: I know the Chargers are better than what they have shown and they will be fired up for the Patriots but I also think the Patriots are quietly very confident for this one. It should be a tight affair.

New York Giants @ Cleveland (+9): The Browns are at home for a prime time game and they just have to play well at some point. The boost of Donte' Stallworth will also help make this a good game.

Getting To Know the San Diego Chargers

I exchanged a Q&A with a Loren of bolttalk.com to get a feel for what the fans of San Diego feel about their Chargers. I also answered some of his questions about the Dolphins, which you can read here.

(1) I think it's pretty safe to say Chargers fans were expecting a Super Bowl run this year, ever since the end of last season. How has that opinion changed at all by the events of the first four weeks of this season?

LC: I still believe this is the most talented team in the NFL and even with the injuries and playing down to teams like the Raiders my expectations and opinion haven't really changed. We went through sometime like this last year when we started 1-4 and people were screaming we wouldn't make the playoffs. I'm basically running with the assumption that Norv Turner teams start slow but finish strong. I have still seen the talent level this team has defensively over the last two weeks and offensively over the first three weeks. This team isn't too far away from putting it all together and when it does no team in the NFL can match up.

I would agree for the most part, but I don't know about the "no team the NFL can match up." When operating at 100% efficiency I would definitely put the Chargers in the top tier of teams, but not by themselves.

(2) What's the deal with Ladainian Tomlinson? Is he still the fantasy and reality star that will just keep scoring touchdowns and terrorizing opposing defenses and fantasy owners or is he finally starting to slow down and is the nagging injury a real cause for concern?

LC: I do believe the injury is causing problems. LT is a back that relies on his ability to cut numerous times in a small area to make defenders miss. A turf toe would prevent him from doing that and furthermore every team seems to want to key on LT and force Rivers to beat them - a big mistake and one numerous teams have paid for already. He probably is slowing down somewhat; lets face it, he's been the workhorse back of the Chargers for years and wear-and-tear has got to be accumulating on him. But I don't believe he's anything but the best all around back in the NFL and I don't believe any fantasy owner or NFL defense should take him lightly.

I pretty much agree here. I would still put LT at the top of the list of RB's I'd least like to face, but he would be ranked below the previous versions of LT, namely 2005 and 2006

(3) How has the defense changed since Shawn Merriman has been out of action? From the outside looking in I would think it would still be one of the better units, but they have given up a lot of points and the most passing yards so far this season.

LC: Losing Merriman hurts the defense, no questions. He was the one player that every offensive player focused on every single down. The Chargers don't have a guy like that other then him. It means that the team has had to rotate their other star OLB, Shaun Phillips, around to get the best matchup since most teams now double team him. Furthermore we still haven't found the one replacement for Merriman and have had to rotate a bit between Tucker/Harris/Applewhite. As to the yards and points, that's a two part issue. Yes Merriman's loss is causing some of that but for the first two games we played fairly dynamic offenses and did little in the way of disguising blitzes or coverages. As such we'd rush four guys regularly, play vanilla coverages and teams would pick us apart. We've gotten better lately but still its been a problem and until it gets solved we will continue to give up yards and points.

I wouldn't call Carolina a dynamic offense, but I understand the argument here. At this point in time, their sub par play on defense is a trend, if it continues throughout the middle of the season though, then it becomes a problem.

(4) What do you think are the keys to the game for the Chargers and conversely what should the Dolphins focus on doing?

LC: Chargers have got to key on Ronnie Brown as much as possible and must get ahead to the point that even that Wild Cat formation won't be of any use to them because they'll be so far behind. The Chargers also have to play as tight as possible coverage wise and realize that on passing downs they're facing a QB without much arm, so they have to be ready for those short passes.
Dolphins, they need to score points, as many as possible, and keep the Chargers offense off the field as much as possible. Basically a similar game plan to what you did against New England.

I'd say pretty much the same thing.

(5) What is your prediction for the game?

LC: 34-13 Chargers

As you could see on their site, my prediction is slightly less of a beat down by the Chargers. It should be a good game and I think San Diego will put it away late, but this scoreline will be a tad off.

Week Five (Chargers @ Dolphins): Early Thoughts

The San Diego Chargers are coming to Miami and it shapes up to be a good game, maybe. I'm not quite sure what to think of the Chargers. I picked them to go to the Super Bowl but then they lose their first two games and Shawn Merriman goes down for the season. They have bounced back reasonably well beating the Jets and Raiders and now stand at 2-2. If it weren't for a last gasp TD in week one, and a blown call in week two, then they would be 4-0. But, they also just sleepwalked their way into Oakland and needed a big second half to overcome a 15-0 deficit. I think this game could go in any number of directions.

Scenario One: San Diego come ins ready to play and shows why they are a year or two ahead of Miami. They have a balanced offense and can exploit the weaknesses in our defense. They also have had time to prepare for our Wildcat formation and will not be fooled. Their defense also thrives on turnovers and if we let them make plays then it could be a long day for us in Miami.

Scenario Two: Any combination of Miami playing well and San Diego struggling to start the game. It is an early kickoff and it wouldn't surprise me to see Miami jump out in front early. Ultimately though, the Chargers will make enough plays to overcome the deficit and continue their winning streak.

Scenario Three: San Diego comes out flat and Miami totally takes advantage. If this is the case it will probably look like the New England game but I don't think the score would be as convincing. The Chargers will put up a fight and won't go down easy.

I know I didn't go into much actual football breakdowns but I will as the week goes on. I also hope to exchange a Q&A with a Chargers blogger to get more info on how they feel about their team and this game. As for right now I would say Scenario One is the most likely, probably at around 50%. The other two I would peg at 25% each, meaning I think we would win this game one out of every four times.

Week Five Picks

Last Week: 9-4
Season to Date: 25-34-1

Tennessee @ Baltimore (+3): The ravens defense will slow down the Titans running attack and make a late play to win the game.

Seattle @ New York Giants (-7): This should be a close game, but a late score will cover for the G-men.

Washington (+5.5) @ Philadelphia: The Redskins are on a roll and are looking for back to back road wins in the division. The Eagles will probably win this one, but it should be a real close game.

San Diego (-6.5) @ Miami: The Chargers are on a mission since the Hochuli disaster. I suppose they may be looking ahead to the Patriots but the Dolphins aren't sneaking up on anybody anymore.

Chicago (-3) @ Detroit: The first game of the post-Millen era shoudln't look too much different than what went on during the Millen reign. The Bears know they need to stay consistent and win in the division.

Atlanta @ Green Bay (-7): I may be changing this pick depending on what happens with Aaron Rodgers, but even if he's out the Falcons should have a tough time in Lambeau.

Indianapolis (-3) @ Houston: This is a game of true desperation, neither team can afford to lose. I'll take Manning over Schaub.

Kansas City @ Carolina (-9.5): It was nice for the Chiefs to show up at home against a division rival. Going on the road is another story. The Panthers are saving John Fox's job so far.

Tampa Bay @ Denver (-3): The Broncos never showed up in Kansas City. With the Chargers resurgence they know they need to get back on track.

Buffalo @ Arizona (-1): Arizona's east coast trip didn't go well, but they will take out their frustration on an east division opponent in their building. The Bills undefeated run will end.

New England (-3) @ San Francisco: This game should tell us a lot about each team. The 49ers can make a real statement, but they won't.

Cincinnati @ Dallas: I can't find a spread anywhere yet for this game. I think Dallas wins big.

Pittsburgh @ Jacksonville (-4): The Jags play well at home and their defense will be up to the task. The Steelers haven't been too impressive.

Minnesota @ New Orleans (-3): The NFC South has turned out better than I thought and their success will continue here with the Saints outscoring Adrian Peterson.

Week Four Picks

Note: I didn't have a recap of the week three ass pounding the Dolphins gave the Patriots because the early part of this week I was very busy and then sick. I think you have probably heard enough of it by now so I'll just get to the picks and hope the Dolphins can deliver a few more performances like that.

Last Week: 5-11
Season to Date: 16-30-1

Okay, I'm going to stop letting Matt Millen make my picks for me.

Atlanta @ Carolina (-7)
Denver (-9.5) @ Kansas City
San Francisco @ New Orleans (-5.5)
Arizona @ New York Jets (-1)
Minnesota @ Tennessee (-3)
Green Bay (+1) @ Tampa Bay
Houston (+9) @ Jacksonville
Cleveland (+3.5) @ Cincinnati
San Diego (-9) @ Oakland
Buffalo (-9) @ St. Louis
Washington (+11) @ Dallas
Philadelphia (-3) @ Chicago
Baltimore @ Pittsburgh (-5.5)

Week Three Picks

Last Week: 5-9-1 (before MNF)
Season to date: 11-19-1 (before MNF)

Kansas City @ Atlanta (-5)
Arizona @ Washington (-3)
Houston (+5) @ Tennessee
Oakland @ Buffalo (-9.5)
Tampa Bay @ Chicago (-3)
Carolina (+3.5) @ Minnesota
Cincinnati (+13.5) @ New York Giants
Miami @ New England (-12.5)
New Orleans (+5.5) @ Denver
Detroit @ San Francisco (-4)
St. Louis (+10) @ Seattle
Cleveland (+2.5) @ Baltimore
Pittsburgh (+3) @ Philadelphia
Jacksonville @ Indianapolis (-5.5)
Dallas @ Green Bay (+3)
New York Jets (+9) @ San Diego Chargers

Week Three: Keys to the Game

Coming off an embarrassing blowout loss the Dolphins will go on the road again, this time to division and conference power, New England. This is not exactly the type of game that I would ask when trying to rebound from two tough defeats in the first couple weeks of this season. Nonetheless, the schedule is what it is, and Miami will have to find a way to improve, play better, and compete. These should be the keys to Sunday's matchup

1. Start Well: Right now I'm trying to think of the last time the Dolphins started a game well. I'm going to have to look it up. We haven't had a lead at any point this year and once again have had poor first quarters, being outscored 21-0 so far. This team must get ahead early which will give them confidence to keep playing well and stay ahead. Okay I looked it up, the last time the Dolphins had a lead of seven or more points in the first half was in week five of last season against Houston. The last time we scored a touchdown on our opening drive was in week thirteen of the 2006 season. Wow.

2. Running Game: Week one we didn't run the ball enough. Week two we ran it some more but not well enough. Hopefully the next step will be running it a lot and doing a good job at it. We need to control the clock and churn out first downs. The blame for the below average running game falls on both the offensive line and the running backs. The line must give the backs a better opportunity for positive yards and perhaps a big play. I would run behind Jake Long and the left side. The running backs also must do a better job of getting all the yardage they can and avoiding negative plays. Too many times I have seen rushes for losses, setting up the team in hard to convert third down situations.

3. Defensive Backs: I've gone over several times about the abysmal play of our passing defense. The main problem is that our defenders don't do a good job of playing the ball, so even if they cover a receiver very well, if the ball comes that way, it's likely to be a reception. They must learn to break up passes any way possible. Bat the ball away, make a big hit as the ball arrives, but please don't stand next to a guy and watch him catch the ball. I'll say this again, Jason Allen needs to start in place of Chris Crocker.

4. Penalties: Looking at the boxscore, we only ended up with six penalties but if you remember correctly, there were several more that were declined as well. The most concerning point about the infractions is when they occurred. On an Arizona missed field goal, we had twelve men on the field. On that drive kept alive, they scored a touchdown. That's a seven point difference. On a third and goal for the Cardinals we made a sack but committed a facemask violation. They scored another touchdown afterwards. That's a four point difference (if they make the field goal). In this game it didn't matter much because we were dominated in all facets of the game. But, in close games, these kinds of penalties can you lose you a game, all by themselves. That can't happen.

Week Two Recap: Dolphins vs Cardinals

This was one of the worst NFL performances I've ever seen from a secondary. The defensive backs looked atrocious and like they didn't belong in the league. Granted they were playing against the best 1-2 wide receiver tandem in the league with another experienced veteran quarterback distributing the ball, but that is not an excuse for getting as torched as they did yesterday.

The Cardinals first play from scrimmage was a 79 yard touchdown pass, where Anquan Boldin escaped 10 yards past our secondary made a catch and ran free for the final 50 or so yards. On the next drive Kurt Warner threw one up for Larry Fitzgerald near the sideline and Will Allen failed to prevent the reception or make the tackle. Chris Crocker failed to make the tackle as well. Will Allen eventually chased him down but not before a total of 75 yards setting up first ad goal.

Kurt Warner continued to find open receivers or just throw into coverage knowing the Miami DB's wouldn't make plays on the ball. He started 9/9 and finished 19/24 with 361 yards and 3 touchdowns. Yes, that is good for a PERFECT quarterback rating (158.3).

I will now take time to pull a Cam Cameron, and just give the Cardinals credit for making the plays they needed to make to win. But let's be honest, the Dolphins (mainly the secondary) was a total embarrassment on Sunday. Adjustments need to be made. There is no way Chris Crocker should be a starting safety for an NFL team. I never thought I'd be saying this, but Jason Allen needs to be the starter or I will go ballistic. I'd also recommend Michael Lehan start in place of Andre Goodman, but I know Lehan is still working his way back from an injury so I just don't know if he is ready.

About the offense, well, it sucked. They were never threatening. They could not establish the run and that pretty much set back everything. This team needs to play from ahead and be able to run the football. We haven't seen anything close to a good running game the first two weeks of this season. I don't know the solution is anything more than just every cog in the machine do a little bit better. Each offensive linemen needs to do a bit better job of blocking and both Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams need to finish runs and eliminate negative plays.

Chad Henne came in the game in the fourth quarter and looked very solid. He led the only meaningful drive and it ended with a touchdown. Those of you arguing he should be the starter, please shut up. This was a nice exercise for him but nothing more. Chad Pennington is the quarterback we invested in and he needs to run the offense so Henne can watch and learn. If you think the offense's problems are quarterback-related then you are mistaken.

But, I do really like Henne and he will probably be the starter before the season is over. You can't help but be encouraged by seeing the strong arm and the confidence in him. For now, that is the only bright spot of the team.

My thoughts on the Dolphins performance today...

Here it is, except when he says "second half" replace it with "entire game."

Getting To Know the Arizona Cardinals

To be honest, I don't know much about the Arizona Cardinals other than the outstanding wide receiver tandem of Fitzgerald and Boldin and the fact that Matt Leinart likes to party. To learn more I sought out Cardinals bloggers and came across Eli Wahlstrom of Voice of the Cardinals. We agreed to exchange a Q&A about each others team in advance of the Sunday matchup. You can find my answers to his Dolphins questions on his site shortly. Below are the questions I asked about the Cardinals and the answers Eli provided.

What are the expectations for Arizona this year? They always seem to be a trendy pick to make the playoffs. Are fans buying that this year?

• Every season is suppose to be the Cardinals season. In my opinion this year looks better than any other year. Not because the Cardinals are so great but because the rest of the division including Seattle looks so bad. Once again we could see 8-8 or 9-7 win the NFC West and I think the Cardinals will do just that.
  

Outsiders always talk about Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin. Who are some under the radar stars for the Cardinals that the Dolphins should keep an eye on?

• Rookie RB Tim Hightower has been a pleasant surprise for the Cardinals. He scored a touchdown in the first game against the 49ers and looked very good in the preseason. On defense Travis Laboy is a guy that really puts pressure on quarterbacks. He had 2 sacks and a forced fumble against San Francisco and I expect him to make things tough on Jake Long and the Dolphins offensive line.

What is the biggest weakness of the team?

• The biggest weakness is still the offensive line. Kurt Warner is a sitting duck in the pocket, any team that has a good pass rush is really going to cause some problems for the Cardinals offense.

What's the deal with the Leinart/Warner situation? Are fans happy, angry, ambiguous or what about the decision to go with Kurt Warner as the starter?

• It's kind of mixed emotions, all Cardinals fans want Leinart to work out here in Arizona, But I think the majority of fans are happy with the decision to start the better quarterback which is Kurt Warner. It's nice to know that if Kurt does get hurt we have a quarterback that is capable to fill in and still lead this team to the playoffs.

Finally, what's your prediction for game?

• I don't think the Dolphins can keep up with the Cardinals offense. My prediction is 31-17 Cardinals

My Thoughts

This is the second time I've heard Tim Hightower's name mentioned. I haven't seen him but if he or Edgerrin James has any kind of success then we can be in trouble. We will have enough trouble stopping the passing game. If they can run effectively then it will be a very long day.

The fact that their offensive line is a weakness is good news for us. We have shown ability to rush the passer and if Warner really is a sitting duck then we should get a good amount of QB pressures, sacks and hopefully a dumb interception or two.

Week Two Picks

Last Week: 6-10, So I have picked up right where I left off last year.

Oakland @ Kansas City (-3.5)
Green Bay (-3) @ Detroit
Tennessee (+1) @ Cincinnati
Chicago @ Carolina (-3)
Buffalo (+6) @ Jacksonville
New Orleans (+1) @ Washington
Indianapolis (-1) @ Minnesota
New York Giants @ St. Louis (+9)
San Francisco @ Seattle (-9)
Atlanta (+9) @ Tampa Bay
Miami @ Arizona (-7)
New England @ New York Jets (-1)
Baltimore @ Houston (-4.5)
San Diego (-1) @ Denver
Pittsburgh (-6) @ Cleveland
Philadelphia @ Dallas (-7)

Week Two: Early Thoughts

The next game on the slate for Miami is a road affair with the Arizona Cardinals. Arizona has seemed to be a trendy pick the last several years to make the next step and advance to the playoffs. That hasn't happened yet but last year they did go 8-8 and played well at home. This game will be no easy task.

Keys to the Game

• Eliminate Silly Errors: I talked about it in the week one recap, Miami must eliminate self inflicted wounds such as, bad kicks, penalties, wasted timeouts. In week one it is almost to be expected that there would be some "first game jitters" but now they must be eliminated. When they occurred at home, we still had a chance to win the ballgame. On the road, committing those mistakes is the easiest way to ensure you lose the game.
• Commitment to the Running Game: Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams need more touches. Both of those guys need to be force-fed the ball to get in the flow of the game. Even if we only use one of them primarily, we must run the ball more than 16 times. I would suggest removing Patrick Cobbs as the 3rd down back and having whoever isn't the 1st-2nd down back, will be the 3rd down back.
• Secondary Must Make Plays: The pass rush will not always get to the quarterback. The guys in coverage must find a way to keep receivers covered and more importantly, when the ball is in the air, make sure that the pass is incomplete or intercepted. It is fundamental, simply covering a man is not good enough in this league. Receivers (and Arizona has great ones) will fight for the ball and you must ensure they don't get it.
• Start Well: The Dolphins were always tied or trailing in week one. I'm not saying the team can't come back in a game (it's actually obvious they can, based on the Jets game) but for a young team that is learning how to win, it is much easier when you get ahead and start feeling the confidence. This is especially true on the road, where a good start can quite the crowd and make the home team feel the pressure.
  

Week One Recap: Jets vs Dolphins

I'm not very good at writing game recaps because I could literally talk for hours about any single game but instead I have to pare it down into a short piece of writing. There is lots to say about this first game of the year so I'll just get straight to the rambling.

Man was that tough. No matter what happens in a game, if you are just one touchdown away from winning, with time running down and the ball nearing the goal line, only to come up one play short, it is very frustrating and depressing. We saw similar situations last season an this just seems like the next in line of "how many different ways can you lose a close game?" I try to convince myself that at the end of the day, this seasons win-loss record is not as significant as the overall team play and improvement.

When you think about it, for the Dolphins to make as many mistakes as they did, and struggle (on offense especially) for three-plus quarters, and still be one play away from victory is encouraging. Just off the top of my head here is a list of mistakes.

• 9 yard punt: Pathetic, I could have come in and at least kicked it 10 yards
• Kickoff out of bounds: Unacceptable
• Penalties that negated first downs: There were at least two
• Timeouts needed in 3rd quarter: We could have used them on our final drive
• Defense on Favre's 22-yard hail mary: Ridiculous, I don't care if he was open, the ball was in the air long enough for a spectator to come down from the upper deck and call a fair catch.

On a broader scale here are my areas of concern

• Run defense: It wasn't as bad as last year, and as the game went on they got better, but at times the Jets ran the ball with ease.
• Running game: Weren't we supposed to be the grind it out tough team? Ronnie and Ricky combined for only 16 carries. They struggled but both of those guys usually get better as the game goes along. We need more commitment to the ground game
• Offensive execution: Everything just looked a half a second behind. Maybe the speed of the game jump from preseason to regular season was a difficult one, or maybe it was the high temperatures and humidity. Whatever it was, it needs to be adjusted to. Phil Simms said it best, when we were on offense it looked like a lot of work to move the ball. Nothing came easy.

Here are some positives

• Front seven: For once we saw a Miami defense that got better as the game went along. In the 4th quarter when Miami needed the ball back to have a chance, the defense did it's job. The Jets went three and out on it's final three possessions (minus the final kneel down). When you look at it, the secondary is more to blame for the scoring allowed. The front seven did look new and improved.
• Tight ends: Anthony Fasano looked every bit of Jason Whitten-lite. He had eight catches and a TD and just looked like the safety valve for Pennington and the offense. A tight end can be a quarterback's best friend and he sure was on this day. I also have to give credit to David Martin, who I'm usually critical of. He didn't have any drops and made a few big catches, including the difficult touchdown in the 4th quarter.
• Overall they just looked more like a capable professional football team than they did at the end of last year. Yes there is still a talent differential, yes they are still a year away, but this team has tough players that are capable of playing well and winning.
  

The true test of this new regime and coaching staff is what happens next week. I was going to write a post before the game about how important game one is. The last two years we lost in week one in games that we could have, and maybe should have won. This year has started in similar fashion. The key is to make the adjustments and move on. In 2006 and 2007, we had a hangover effect and we fell the next week. We must move on and fight another battle. Arizona plays well at home and it will be a tough challenge to go and beat them at their place. More on this game throughout the week.

Week One Picks

I am too lazy to go in the archive and retrieve my final record from last year. It was below.500% and not very good. This year will be different. My picks in bold

• Washington @ New York Giants (-4)
  
• Tampa Bay @ New Orleans (-3)
• St. Louis @ Philadelphia (-7.5)
• New York Jets @ Miami (+3)
• Kansas City @ New England (-16.5)
• Houston @ Pittsburgh (-6.5)
• Cincinnati (-1) @ Baltimore
• Detroit (-3) @ Atlanta
  
• Seattle (+1) @ Buffalo
• Jacksonville (-3) @ Tennessee
• Dallas (-5.5) @ Cleveland
• Carolina (+9.5) @ San Diego
• Arizona @ San Francisco (+3)
  
• Chicago @ Indianapolis (-9.5)
• Minnesota (+3) @ Green Bay
• Denver @ Oakland (+3)
  

2008 NFL Season Predictions

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Desean Jackson. I really wanted to pick one of the running backs that were taken in the first round of the draft but I just don't feel that any of them will get enough carries as a feature back to put up great stats. Jackson on the other hand will be a starting receiver and the Eagles really need him now more than ever, due to the injury of Kevin Curtis. He will probably have the most highlight-reel plays, especially in the return game, which gives him a slight edge. Watch out for Jonathan Stewart.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Jerod Mayo. Yes, it pains me, but the Patriots needed some youth in their linebacking corps and Mayo is a great fit. In that system the linebackers are counted on to make plays and he should make plenty. He will also get great exposure due to playing for New England. Watch out for Leodis McKelvin and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie.

Offensive Player of the Year: See MVP Award

Defensive Player of the Year: Jared Allen. I'll go with a fairly safe pick. He is one of the game's best pass rushers and he goes from a bad team to an average team with an already solid defense. I'm not sure how high his sack total will be, but he should win this award by being the best player on a great defense. Watch out for Antonio Cromartie.

Most Valuable Player: Tom Brady. I don't think he will match the 50 touchdowns total from a year ago. But he is still the MVP.

Now on to part two, the division and wild card winners

AFC

• East: New England Patriots. This is the easiest pick. No matter how good the Jets, Bills and Dolphins could be, they just can't challenge the dynasty of this division. The only way I see the Patriots not getting the job done is if Tom Brady is hurt and misses time.
• North: Pittsburgh Steelers. This division should be close and I don't think the division winner will have more than 10 wins, but Pittsburgh will get it done. Cincinnati and Baltimore should be better but not good enough and Cleveland will not match last years success.
• South: Jacksonville Jaguars. Mark this down as the first bold prediction. The Colts have won 12 or more games in five consecutive years, but this is the year to get them. I just feel that it is the Jaguars time to finally win the division. The Titans and Texans should be good, but I don't think this division will produce three playoff teams again.
• West: San Diego Chargers. They are loaded with talent and even without Shawn Merriman they should win this division with ease. The Broncos are still mired in mediocrity and the Raiders and Chiefs are simply not ready to challenge for a playoff spot.
• Wild Cards: Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills. The Colts are still a good team and should be the number five seed easily and possibly have a better record than one or more division winners. The Bills will grab the sixth playoff spot, probably in a tiebreaker. Their schedule isn't too difficult and last year they learned how to win. The big game for them will be hosting Cleveland in week eleven.
  

NFC

• East: Dallas Cowboys. Yes any team can win it. These four teams could finish in any order and it wouldn't be too surprising. I'm going with Dallas though because they have done it before, and have the most talent in the division. I don't think they will reach 13 wins again, but they should edge out the other three for another division title. Will they win a playoff game though?
  
• North: Minnesota Vikings. I don't like how everyone is dismissing the Packers just because Favre is gone and Aaron Rodgers is the guy, They have a great defense and should not drop off much. I do think the Vikings will win it though. They may have the best defense and their offense should be good enough with the solid play of Adrian Peterson
  
• South: New Orleans Saints. This division has been unpredictable in recent years but this is the one when it should go true to form. The Saints are the most talented team. They shot themselves in the foot last year by starting out 0-4. As long as they get out of the gates okay, they should cruise in this division.
  
• West: Seattle Seahawks. Seattle has been one of the more quiet divisional dynasties in recent memory. They have made the playoffs five straight years and won four division titles during that time. It doesn't stop this year. They have an underrated defense and should have an improved running game.
• Wild Cards: Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. I hate doing this but I think it will be another year with three playoff teams from the NFC East. Philly should be much improved and if they stay healthy, are good enough for a Super Bowl run. The Giants will have a much harder time than last year but I don't buy that they have fallen out of the playoff ranks.
  

Super Bowl XLIII

• Dallas Cowboys defeat San Diego Chargers. Your guess is as good as mine. I find it hard to believe the Cowboys will continue to struggle in the playoffs. This just seems like their year to me. They have a great mix of proven players and exciting young guys.
  

Final Roster Set

I've been hesitant to make this post because the organization has showed it will be continually making moves to improve the roster even though most teams would just settle on a 53-man squad and be done with it. But I can't wait forever, I'll discuss all of the moves now.

First, the team traded Josh McCown to the Carolina Panthers on Friday for an undisclosed draft pick (believed to be a 2009 7th-rounder). This move proves two points in my opinion. First, the team must feel that Chad Henne is an able backup and can be a solid quarterback, if needed to play in relief of Chad Pennington. Also, I believe the team just can't give up on John Beck. At this point he does look like a longshot to ever become a dependable player, but there is still some upside. McCown on the other hand, did not have much growing potential. I like this move and it is what I would have done. The fact that we got a draft pick, even though it's a minuscule asset, is a plus.

On Saturday the team cut 17 players to get down to the 53-player roster limit. You can get the full list here. None of these moves came as a real surprise. Most of the players released were ones who never had a great shot to make the team.

The team watched the waiver wire and on Sunday were awarded with three new players they made claims on. Andy Alleman (Center) was a third round pick in this years draft for the Saints but for whatever reason did not make their team. I like this pickup because our offensive line has very questionable depth and it needs all the talent it can get. PFT is saying that he was a popular guy and that six other teams made a claim for him. Nate Garner (Tackle) was a seventh round pick of the Jets this year but did not make the team. He is now a Dolphin. Again, we need help on the line. I approve. The last player claimed was Brandon London, a wide receiver formerly of the Giants. He was an undrafted free agent who made their practice squad last year but not this year. He takes the place of Anthony Armstrong as the 6th receiver (more on that later) on the team.

Now let's take a look at the 53-man roster and depth chart (according to the team's website)

OFFENSE
QB: Chad Pennigton, Chad Henne, John Beck
RB: Ricky Williams, Ronnie Brown, Patrick Cobbs, Jalen Parmele
FB: Boomer Grigsby
TE: Anthony Fasano, David Martin, Sean Ryan
WR1: Ted Ginn, Ernest Wilford, Brandon London
WR2: Derek Hagan, Greg Camarillo, Davone Bess
LT: Jake Long, Ikechuku Ndukwe
LG: Justin Smiley, Shawn Murphy
C: Samson Satele, Andy Alleman
RG: Donald Thomas
RT: Vernon Carey, Nate Garner

DEFENSE
LE: Kendall Langford, Randy Starks, Rodrique Wright
NT: Jason Ferguson, Paul Soliai
RE: Vonnie Holliday, Phillip Merling, Lionel Dotson
OLB: Matt Roth, Quentin Moses
ILB: Channing Crowder
ILB: Akin Ayodele, Reggie Torbor
OLB: Joey Porter, Charlie Anderson
LCB: Will Allen, Michael Lehan, Joey Thomas
RCB: Andre Goodman, Nathan Jones
SS: Yeremiah Bell, Renaldo Hill
FS: Chris Crocker, Jason Allen

SPECIAL TEAMS
K: Dan Carpenter
P: Brandon Fields
LS: John Denney

Notes:

• The six receivers surprise me. For a team that should depend on the running game, I thought they would go with the normal count of five. I don't imagine we will finish the season will all six of those guys active.
• I thought the team would have eight, maybe even nine linebackers. Usually the backups play special teams, but they must be relying on other players for that. I also think it's a big risk considering the questionable health of Joey Porter and the inexperience of Matt Roth.
  
• Of these 53 players, only 27 were with the team at all last year (some of them, just barely). Basically half of the team are guys that were never a Dolphin before this year. That's an impressive roster overhaul.
• 8 of the 9 draft picks from this year made the team, with Lex Hilliard being the lone exception. He is on the practice squad, however.
  

News and Notes, Friday August 22nd

Preseason Game Against the Jaguars

(Marc Serota/Getty Images, via NFL.com)

This game has come and gone and you have probably already read much about it. It was a good showing for the first team players and there were more positives to come out of this game than the first. It was Chad Pennington's first action and while he wasn't asked to do much, he ran the offense well and scored ten points on his three possessions. The other Chad (Henne) got the rest of the game at QB and once again looked comfortable and poised. He led Miami to three more field goals and completed 17 of 26 passes. Ricky Williams again showed why he is the Phins' best player and most valuable asset. He had several impressive runs, capped off by his four-yard touchdown run in the first quarter.

The defense looked better too. The defensive line was once again very active and causing disruptions and this week the linebackers did a better job of making and finishing the plays. The secondary started out okay but let down in the 4th quarter, allowing some long passes and two touchdowns.

Travis Daniels Traded

Earlier this week, news broke that Travis Daniels was traded to the Browns for an undisclosed draft pick. This was very surprising to me, not because Daniels wasn't on the team anymore, but because a team actually wanted him enough to trade for him. I know it's a low round pick but still, he probably would have been cut, at which point the Browns could have signed him. As for the Dolphins perspective, any pick acquired is a good one. Most people will say that a 6th or 7th round pick is useless as a lot of those guys don't even make the team, and if they do, they either never develop or just max out as a small time contributor. But, each pick is an asset, that can be used to improve the team. The pick can later be packaged to move up in a round in the draft or take a chance on a player that has high potential but low value.

Depth Chart Madness

The team released a new depth chart for the upcoming preseason game and there are a few things to note. Matt Roth is listed as a starting OLB. I'm not completely sold on this. This transition for him is not complete and if he is really our starter then we could have problems. Rookie Kendall Langford is listed as the starting LDE. I have no problem with this. he has been impressive and is well prepared for this role having played it in college. Ricky Williams has replaced Ronnie Brown atop the depth chart for injury (see below) and performance issues.

Injury Updates

• Ronnie Brown: He came out of the game on Saturday with a thumb injury. He has since returned to practice wearing a small cast but he can still catch and run. The team has decided to hold him out of the game this weekend for precautionary reasons.
  
• Joey Porter: He missed some practice this week with a knee injury. He returned and is expected to be healthy by week one but these nagging injuries are starting to stack up. That is never a good thing.
• Charlie Anderson: He returned to practice yesterday after missing some time with a quad injury. With our lack of depth at OLB, he is needed and hopefully he picks up where he left off.
• Michael Lehan: He is finally back. This is his first action of training camp. He won't be 100% for a while but hopefully he gets there. The team is counting on him to be a starting corner.

Preseason Game Number Three

The starters should see a lot of time and the team is still looking for improvement. I'd like to see more points, specifically more touchdowns. This preaseason we have had seven scoring drives, but only one of them ended in six points. We will probably play a lot of close, low scoring games this year. Sometimes there are critical moments in a game where three points is simply not good enough, six is needed. We must be able to punch it in the end zone when we have the opportunity. On defense I'd still like to see better play on third downs, and more big plays. So far we have only forced one turnover. Good defenses not only make the stops needed, but also set up their offense in good field position due to turnovers and sacks. We need more of that.

New Depth Chart, Jay Feely Cut

Yesterday the Dolphins released an updated depth chart, per league rules, in time for the next preseason game. Here it is, in a rather convenient list form.

OFFENSE
QB: C. Pennington, J. McCown, J. Beck, C. Henne
RB: R. Brown, R. Williams, P. Cobbs, J. Parmele, L. Hilliard
FB: R. Mauia, B. Grigsby
WR1: T. Ginn, E. Wilford, D. Kircus, J Foster, A. Armstrong
WR2: D. Hagan, G. Camarillo, D Bess, J. Dunlap, S. Lymon
TE: A. Fasano, D. Martin, S. Ryan, J. Peelle, M. Mulligan
LT: J. Long, I. Ndukwe
LG: J. Smiley, S. Murphy
C: S. Satele, S. McKinney, M. Spanos
RG: D Thomas, T. Darilek, M Byrne
RT: V. Carey, D. Heerspink

DEFENSE
LDE: M. Roth, R. Starks, K Langford, R. Wright
NT: J. Ferguson, P. Soliai, A. Toribio
RDE: V. Holliday, P Merling, L. Dotson
SLB: J. Porter, R. Ninkovich, J. Glymph
ILB1: C. Crowder, K. Smith, K. Poppinga
ILB2: A. Ayodele, R. Torbor, Edmond Miles
WLB: C. Anderson, Q. Moses, K Saunders
LCB: W. Allen, J. Thomas, C. Roberson
RCB: A. Goodman, T. Daniels, N. Jones, W. Billingsley
SS: Y. Bell, K. Davis, C. Bryan
FS: J. Allen, C. Crocker, R. Hill

SPECIAL TEAMS
K: J. Feely, D. Carpenter
P: B. Fields
LS: J. Denney
KR/PR: T. Ginn, J. Foster, D. Bess

Quick thoughts on the new depth chart:

1. I know the quarterbacks are still technically listed by seniority but I think that's how it will stay. Pennington will start, McCown and beck are battling it out for the number two, whoever loses will be waived, and Henne is number three, no matter how well he does in practice. I know they could keep four but I just don't see that happening.
2. There is a real log-jam at that LDE spot. That spot I feel is really up for grabs. Roth is being experimented with at OLB, Langford is good but a rookie, Starks is solid but will move around the whole line, and even Wright has shown potential. Those four guys could end up in any order and I wouldn't be surprised.
3. Michael Lehan is nowhere to be found. His injury is probably more serious than being day-to-day. If he is active for week one against the Jets I'd be surprised.
4. Charlie Anderson is also hurt but he is on the list and hopefully will resume practicing soon.
   

News

Kelvin Smith suffered a serious knee injury during the preseason game and has been placed on the waived/injured list. I'm not quite sure what that means except that he should get money he was due and will probably sit out the season. He was a seventh round pick last year and showed a little promise, but I don't imagine him having much future with the team. Replacing him on the roster is Maurice Fountain, who played for Clemson and most recently the Utah Blaze of the AFL2. Wow. No Ricky Williams jokes, please.

Also, breaking this morning is news that kicker Jay Feely has been cut. I've had a feeling he may end up losing the kicking battle, but I thought it would take several weeks of practice and preseason games for Dan Carpenter to prove he should win it. Although I like Carpenter, this move makes me a little nervous. Feely was great on field goals last year and the kickoffs figured to be better this year with the improvement of the coverage teams. I also hate to see an injury play any part in determing a position battle (Feely has been nursing one and hasn't practiced in a while). We shouldn't feel too bad for jay though, he is good and once he is 100% healthy there is no doubt that he will be kicking somewhere in the NFL.

Preseason Game One: Recap

(sun-sentinel.com)

Before I get to the game there are a couple things I want to mention. Obviously, the Dolphins signed Chad Pennington. I gave my thoughts about the potential move a couple days ago, so there is no reason to elaborate again. I was not in favor of this acquisition but it has been made and now we need to embrace it. There are some good things that can come out of it, namely getting insider information about our division rival the New York Jets.

With this move, one of two quarterbacks will eventually have to be removed from the roster. I thought it'd be a fairly simple decision. Pennington is an upgrade for Josh McCown's role and he is the one who should be cut. But, there are rumors that if John Beck, who has had a slow start to training camp, doesn't start to turn things around, that he would be the one dangled in a trade or released. I am not in favor of that. McCown is a known quantity in this league (below average player) while Beck is young and still developing. It would be a bad move to give up on Beck this soon.

On to the game, I'll start with the good. The one player that stood out most was Ricky Williams. He just looks better than everyone else on a football field and made a couple nice runs. Our strength should be running the ball and giving it to Ricky is clearly a good option. All he needs is a small hole or crease and he can burst through for a big gain. Even one rush he was stuffed in the backfield, but he bounced off, took it the other direction, eluded another tackle and made a six yard gain. If he plays all sixteen games he could put up great numbers and really give us a good chance to win.

Chad Henne looked solid in his debut. You hear this cliche a lot and I don't like to use it, but he really did not look like a rookie out there. He was poised and had a couple of impressive third and long conversions where he stepped up in the pocket and delivered a bullet. He also didn't have any "wtf?" moments that you see some rookies make.

Both rookies on the defensive line (Philip Merling and Kendall Langford) also impressed. The both got a good rush and were pretty good stopping the run. I don't think these guys will put up big stats but there job is to occupy space and disrupt things. Along with nose tackle Jason Ferguson they gave the linebackers a lot of opportunities to make plays.

Dan Carpenter is making this kicking battle interesting. He made both of his field goal attempts which were of above average difficulty. The first was a 41-yarder off the infield dirt and he followed it up with a 49-yard conversion from the grass. He didn't have any touchbacks but it appeared as if Miami was using the directional kicking strategy. Carpenter and the coverage team did well with that.

Let's move to the bad side. The receivers were as advertised. They failed to impress. David Kircus made a few nice catches but other than that they had a quiet outing. The three players figured to get the most time this year (Ginn, Wilford, Hagan) were rather invisible, each just catching one ball. Tampa did a good job in coverage but it's still their job to get open and make plays.

The problem on defense was stopping the intermediary passing game. The Bucs did a great job of methodically moving the ball down the field with short passes and efficient runs. I'm not sure if it was the linebackers fault for not covering well or if it was the cornerbacks who should be jamming receivers at the line. The west coast style posed a problem for our defense and they will have to take a look at the film.

One more person I thought had a bad night was Jayson Foster. He won't get many opportunities in the preseason games to impress and in this one he didn't have any dynamic returns and he even muffed one punt. He looked like he didn't belong on the field quite honestly. Let's hope he turns it around this week.

Overall this was much like any other preseason game. The things that went well you say to yourself, "Now that's an encouraging sign." When things don't go so well, you just chalk it up as the preseason mistakes that will get corrected eventually.

Coming up this week are only five practices over the Monday through Thursday span. I figure Pennington will get lots of time and reps while he relearns this Dan Henning offense. The next preseason game is on Saturday in Jacksonville facing the Jaguars.

Update: Also of note, starting outside linebacker Charlie Anderson left the game with a hamstring injury, no word yet on his status.